ERCOT’s latest seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) indicates ample generation for spring, with more than 82 GW of generation for an expected peak demand of 58 GW.
Nearly 1.5 GW of new gas-fired, wind and solar generation has become operational since the preliminary spring SARA was released in November.
A preliminary summer SARA anticipates a new record peak of nearly 72.9 GW, with 81.6 GW of capacity. That would break the mark of 71.1 GW set last year on Aug. 11. ERCOT said it expects another 2.5 GW of new gas-fired and 1.6 GW of wind and solar generation to come online before the June-September season begins.
ERCOT Senior Meteorologist Chris Coleman is predicting another hotter-than-normal summer in Texas this year. He said during a media conference call last week that the state is coming off what may be its warmest winter on record, and he does not expect any significant changes in the “warming trend.”
“Eight or nine of the past summers have been hotter than normal,” he told the ERCOT Board of Directors in January. “That’s just been the trend. It would really be going out on a limb to forecast a mild summer for Texas this year.”
A final summer SARA will be released in May.
– Tom Kleckner
