NEW ORLEANS — MISO expects a 19.2% planning reserve margin this summer, well above its 15.8% requirement, and a percentage point above its projection last year, despite predictions of higher-than-normal temperatures.
The figure is also higher than the prediction of 17.4% in the RTO’s resource adequacy survey with the Organization of MISO States. The RTO said the difference was the result of negative load growth and more demand response resources.
“We’re seeing a decline in load forecasts and an increase in demand response,” explained MISO Vice President of System Operations Todd Ramey at the March 21 Markets Committee of the Board of Directors meeting.
Independent Market Monitor David Patton said his monitoring staff has calculated a similar percentage.
The RTO relied on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to calculate summer readiness; the agency forecasts higher-than-average summer temperatures in the footprint, with MISO South experiencing the most significant temperature spikes.
Based on the forecast, the RTO expects a 125.1-GW peak demand with 149.1 GW of supply on hand to meet it. Last year, the RTO anticipated a 125.9-GW peak demand and said it had 148.8 GW at the ready for an 18.2% reserve margin. The RTO’s 24 GW worth of reserves are higher than last year’s 23 GW, and beats the requirement by 4.2 GW.
MISO will reveal final reserve margin numbers at a summer readiness workshop sometime in May.
— Amanda Durish Cook
