The U.N.’s 26th Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) ended with close to 200 nations adopting an agreement that recognized the urgent need to make “rapid, deep and sustained” cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the average global temperature does not rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

But in a last-minute change, COP26 leadership buckled to pressure from China and India to water down a key provision on the phaseout of coal.

During the closing plenary in Glasgow, Scotland, the wording of the provision on coal was changed from “phaseout” to “phase-down.” Additional language proposed by India also called for support for “the poorest and the most vulnerable in line with national circumstances and recognizing the need for support towards a just transition.”

In long sessions throughout the day on Saturday, delegates had already registered their disappointment with the shortcomings of the Glasgow Climate Pact, particularly on climate financing for developing nations. But they all agreed to support it as a balanced compromise providing a foundation for further action at next year’s COP27 in Egypt.

Speaking at the plenary, COP26 President Alok Sharma, of the U.K., said, “We can say with credibility that we have kept 1.5 degrees within reach. But its pulse is weak.”

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy on Climate John Kerry put a positive spin on the last-minute change on coal during a press conference following the closing plenary, saying that getting the coal phase-down in the agreement, in and of itself, means it is “on the books.”

“You have to phase down coal before you can ‘end coal,’” Kerry said, adding that Glasgow was never going to be a finish line. “Paris built the arena; Glasgow starts the race; and tonight a starting gun was fired.”

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, committed nations to keep global warming “well below” 2 C above preindustrial levels, while also pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 C. But the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries to date will not meet either target, and the Glasgow pact has been framed throughout the conference as essential to “keep 1.5 alive.”

The final agreement also:

• expresses “alarm and utmost concern” that global greenhouse gas emissions from human activity have already resulted in a 1.1-C increase in temperatures and stresses the need for urgency during “this critical decade” ahead to limit warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 C.
• recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 C will require rapid, deep and sustained reductions in GHG emissions and, specifically, cutting carbon dioxide emissions 45% over 2010 levels by 2030.
• calls on developed countries around the world to step up and deliver on their commitments to ensure adequate and predictable finance to developing countries, many of which are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In particular, the agreement calls for developed nations to deliver on the $100 billion a year promised in the Paris Agreement in 2015 to help developing nations transition to clean energy.
• calls on developed nations to double their funding to developing nations to help them adapt to the impacts of climate change.
• urges nations that have not done so to raise their commitments to GHG reduction and develop long-term climate plans in line with the 45% reduction target needed for 2030.

Other provisions call on the U.N. to track nations’ commitments to GHG reductions on a yearly basis to close the gap between what they have committed and what is actually needed to reduce GHG emissions worldwide 45% from 2010 levels by 2030. A U.N. report released prior to COP26 found that current commitments would result in GHG emissions 13.7% above 2010 levels by 2030.

Earlier this year, President Biden committed the U.S. to reducing its GHG emissions by 50 to 52% by 2030. During COP26, the U.S. and the EU also launched a new international initiative to cut methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, with more than 100 countries signing on. The U.S. did not, however, join 40 other countries in a pledge committing developed countries to phase out coal by the 2030s.

The closing plenary voted to approve final adoption of the rulebook for the implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement, setting standards for transparent reporting of nations’ GHG emission reductions and allowing for trading of carbon credits between countries.

US Takes Stock

Completion of the Paris rulebook was one of several major objectives of COP26 that Kerry highlighted during his press conference, along with adaptation and securing climate finance.

Completing the rulebook was “really hard,” he said, but it will now provide transparency on how and how often countries report on NDC progress. The text gives a “clear blueprint” for actions needed through 2030, and then from 2030 to 2050, he said.

While there was a collective interest in having stronger language on ambition, Kerry said a commitment by countries that have been dependent on coal to phase down is a significant first. Their commitment, he added, doesn’t mean it’s done. It means that accountability and reporting must follow that pledge.

Addressing adaptation during the conference was a top priority for the U.S., according to Kerry, who praised the progress on adaptation finance pledges.

“We have a clear path on the $100 billion [commitment to support developing countries], and we are on track to fulfill that obligation,” he said. “It will go out into the future year after year, and there will be more than $100 billion in those years.”

He also said that the private sector was at the conference “in force” to help rally climate finance.

“We embrace the reality that … we have a gap of some $2.6 [trillion] to $4.6 trillion a year for the next 30 years,” he said. “Since we know that’s not going to come from the government, we have to bring it to the table from the places where it is, and that’s principally the private sector.”

COP27 ‘Starts Now’

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres admitted in a statement on Saturday that the adopted COP26 text was a “compromise” and reflected “the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will.”

“They take important steps, but unfortunately the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions,” he said.

The conference did not reach the goals of targeting the phaseout of coal, pricing carbon and fulfilling the financial commitments to nations vulnerable to climate change, according to Guterres.

In the final outcome, he found some “building blocks,” including commitments to end deforestation, reduce methane emissions and mobilize private finance to reach net-zero emissions.

The final text, he said, reaffirms the resolve to meet the 1.5-C goal, boost finance for adaptation and finalize the Paris rulebook with an agreement on carbon markets.

Guterres committed to creating a high-level expert group to establish clear standards to analyze and measure net-zero commitments from “non-state actors.”

“The path of progress is not always a straight line,” he said. “Sometimes there are detours; sometimes there are ditches.”

COP27, he added, “starts now.”

Enviros Disappointed

The climate advocacy community quickly commented on the final text after its adoption, largely expressing disappointment but also seeing progress.

“It’s meek; it’s weak; and the 1.5-C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending, and that matters,” Greenpeace International Executive Director Jennifer Morgan said in a statement.

She credited the efforts of young people, Indigenous leaders, activists and countries on the climate frontline for forcing concessions from parties. “Without them, these climate talks would have flopped completely.”

The commitment on coal is both “significant” and “weaker than ideal,” Kelley Kizzier, vice president for global climate at the Environmental Defense Fund, said in a statement.

Kizzier was more optimistic about the progress on carbon markets. The final text, she said, provides rules for a “transparent and accountable carbon market.”

“The decision eliminates double counting for compliance markets and establishes a strong framework to ensure appropriate accounting for voluntary carbon markets that also supports emission reductions in countries hosting carbon market activities,” she said.

On commitments to hold global warming to 1.5 C, the World Resources Institute said in a statement that the 151 new NDCs fall short.

“A number of major emitters have weak 2030 plans and will need to put forward more aggressive targets to drive down emissions this decade,” WRI President and CEO Ani Dasgupta said in a statement. “Encouragingly, countries agreed to come back next year to submit stronger 2030 targets and to put forward long term strategies that aim towards a just transition to net zero by around midcentury.”