ERCOT quietly dropped a spring resource adequacy assessment last week that indicated it expects nearly 100 GW of seasonally rated capacity to be available to meet demand.
The Texas grid operator projects demand will peak at 59.5 GW in April and 69.9 GW in May, according to its latest seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA). That assumes the footprint will experience “typical” spring grid conditions, based on average weather conditions during the 2007-2021 spring peaks.
ERCOT announces its spring resource adequacy report. | ERCOT via TwitterThe total capacity includes 63.4 GW of thermal generation, 15.8 GW of wind resources and 10.7 GW of solar resources. It also assumes 844 MW of battery storage capability will be available for dispatch before the highest spring net load hours. Staff calculate net load as total load minus wind and solar generation to represent the demand that must be met with other available resources.
The report includes typical thermal outages of 19.5 GW during the March-April maintenance window and 16 GW during May’s forecasted spring peak. ERCOT based the outage assumptions on historical data for the previous three spring seasons; staff excluded 2021, when February winter storm outages extended into the spring.
The load forecast incorporates expected increases during the peak demand hour from interconnected cryptomining facilities and other large loads. Staff evaluated two risk scenarios: based and moderate, and extreme risk.
ERCOT’s only public notification of the SARA was a tweet Wednesday. It previously issued the report in press releases; follow-up conference calls were discontinued after the deadly 2021 winter storm.
