ERCOT set demand records three times Tuesday as demand soared above 80 GW during a sweltering heat wave, breaking a record set last July.
The first mark came during the hour ending at 4 p.m. CT, when ERCOT met an average demand of 80.25 GW. Demand averaged 80.79 and 80.83 GW during the next two hours. All three marks, which are not official, would break the record of 80.15 GW.
The record would likely be short-lived. ERCOT is expecting demand to peak above 81 GW from Wednesday through Friday.
The Texas grid operator came within 5 MW of the 2022 record Monday. Preliminary data indicate demand averaged 80.144 GW and 80.137 GW during the hours ending at 5 p.m. and 6 p.m., respectively.
“It’s a hellacious week, even by Texas standards,” Stoic Energy’s Doug Lewin wrote in his most recent Texas Energy and Power Newsletter.
The culprit is a heat dome, or high-pressure system, that has been sitting over much of Texas for more than a week now. Meteorologists expect the system to punish Texas for at least another week.
Temperatures are expected to peak Wednesday, with a high of 107 degrees Fahrenheit in Dallas. The heat index could reach as much as 112 F in the city.
Space City Weather’s Matt Lanza expects heat index values of 110 to 115 F and said wet-bulb globe temperatures, a measure of heat stress in direct sunlight, will be in the human body’s “extreme” level.
“Whatever index you use, it will feel terribly hot all week,” he said.
Texas has been under excessive heat warnings since last week, as have parts of New Mexico and the Gulf Coast. Heat advisories are in place from northern Florida to southern New Mexico, affecting more than 46 million people, according to the National Integrated Heat Health Information System.
With the heat dome creating clear skies over much of the state, solar resources again nearly met their summer capacity expectation of 12.6 GW. Wind overperformed Tuesday afternoon, producing more than 17 GW of energy and combining with solar to account for more than a third of ERCOT’s fuel mix. Wind resources have a 10.4-GW summer capacity.
The grid operator set a record for solar production on June 24 at 13.08 GW. It also set a high for weekend peak demand Sunday at 78.97 GW; ERCOT recorded nearly three dozen demand marks last year.
ERCOT issued its second weather watch of the year for Sunday through Friday, urging Texans to monitor grid conditions and be prepared to reduce energy use during high-demand periods. It also asked for voluntary conservation measures for four hours on June 20 because of the extreme heat and its forecasted demand. (See “New Grid Notifications Added,” ERCOT Monitor Recommends New Market Design in Report.)
Prices were settling no higher than $44/MWh on Tuesday afternoon.
ERCOT did not respond to a request for comment.
SPP Extends Resource Advisory
The extreme heat also forced SPP to extend a previously issued resource advisory for its entire 14-state balancing authority footprint in the Eastern Interconnection because of expected higher-than-normal generation outages, high demand and uncertain wind forecasts.
The advisory went into effect at midnight CT on Monday, lasting through midnight Saturday. The advisory does not require public conservation but was issued to raise awareness among generators and transmission providers of potential threats to reliability.
The National Weather Service has forecasted triple-digit temperatures in Oklahoma on Wednesday. It said the heat will expand north in Kansas and Missouri and does not expect relief before the Independence Day holiday.
