Planning Committee

Stakeholders Endorse Revised RRS Values 

The Planning Committee endorsed a PJM proposal to reset the installed reserve margin (IRM) and forecast pool requirement (FPR) values for the 2025/26 delivery year to reflect the shift to marginal ELCC accreditation approved by FERC last month (ER24-99). The changes were approved with 57% support. 

Driven by several resource classes seeing reduced average accreditation, the FPR would decline 15% from the 1.1171 endorsed by stakeholders last year to 0.9440, while the IRM would remain static at 1.17%. The FPR formula was changed in the filing approved last month to multiply the IRM by the pool-wide average accredited unforced capacity factor, rather than the equivalent forced outage rates previously used, to determine the capacity required to meet forecast peak load. (See “Stakeholders Endorse Reserve Requirement Study Values,” PJM PC/TEAC Briefs: Oct. 3, 2023.) 

PJM’s Pat Bruno said the RTO continues to review the unit-specific performance adjustment before it can release generator’s accreditation values, which are calculated using the adjustment and class ratings presented to the PC. Those values are to be considered by the Markets and Reliability Committee and Members Committee for endorsement Feb. 22. The PJM Board of Managers is expected to establish the values by the end of the month. 

PJM’s Patricio Rocha Garrido said the FPR values PJM proposed Feb. 6 differed from preliminary estimates because of increased winter risk being identified because of the resource portfolio including a higher concentration of solar resources and fewer wind generators. Bruno said there also was a smaller number of generators that attested to their ability to provide dual-fuel capability than expected and those that did seek that classification had a wide range of historical performance, resulting in some being disqualified. 

Multiple stakeholders said there was too little information to understand how the new figures were being calculated and the effect they could have on unit-specific accreditation, raising a concern that the new values were being moved to a vote too quickly. 

“I am concerned about PJM pushing us to vote. Clearly there was very little transparency into the numbers that PJM has published. They have extraordinary commercial implications for all of your stakeholders. To try and cut off conversation is really inappropriate,” LS Power’s Marji Philips said. After the meeting, Philips said she appreciated PJM allowing more voices to be heard before moving to a vote. 

PJM Corrects Electric Vehicle Load Forecast

PJM updated its forecast for electric vehicle load growth with corrected figures from S&P Global, which PJM contracted to provide estimates for the first time for the 2024 Load Forecast. (See “PJM 2024 Load Forecast Sees Jump from EVs, Data Centers, Heat Pumps,” PJM PC/TEAC Briefs: Dec. 5, 2023.) 

The projected numbers were incorrectly offset to increase one year in advance, PJM’s Andrew Gledhill said, resulting in the EV forecast being inflated by 10% for 2030. The revised forecast resulted in varying outcomes across transmission zones, with the MedEd region seeing the largest difference with a summer peak forecast over 2% smaller in 2030. 

Vistra’s Erik Heinle questioned if PJM plans to continue using contractors for this portion of its forecast or if multiple vendors could be used to receive estimates that could be analyzed or averaged together. Gledhill said PJM sees value in getting an outside expert opinion on EV load growth and there has not been any decision to change course. 

Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee

Supplemental Needs and Project Proposals

• • Exelon presented a $175 million project to build a new Keslinger Substation and several lines in its ComEd zone to serve a new customer with an ultimate load of 210 MW. Keslinger would include four new six-mile lines cutting into the Waterman-Crego Road and Crego Road-Glidden 138-kV lines, as well as two new 345-kV lines spanning 0.7 miles to cut into the Nelson-Electric Junction lines. The project is in the conceptual phase with an envisioned in-service date of Dec. 31, 2027.
  • Exelon revised the scope of a prior project to build a new Navy Yard 230-kV substation to serve growing load in Philadelphia, bringing the cost from $71 million to $82 million. The original design would have configured the facility as a breaker-and-a-half. Limited space led the utility to shift to a ring configuration. The project is in the conceptual phase with a projected in-service in 2029. 
  • Public Service Enterprise Group revised a project to upgrade communications equipment on 500-kV lines running between its Deans, East Windsor and New Freedom substations, increasing the cost from $20 million to $39 million. The new proposal would replace 68 miles of static wire with fiber lines and upgrade line relay equipment. The original proposal would have replaced the static wire with optical guide wire. The project, which is in the conceptual phase, would complete work on the Deans-East Windsor line in December 2025 and finish the East Windsor-New Freedom line in June 2027. 
  • PPL presented a customer service need to add 1,275 MW served by a 138-kV source in New Kingston, Pa. The load is expected to come online in the summer of 2026 starting at 40 MW and grow to 1,275 MW in 2032. 
  • Dominion Energy presented several distribution requests to serve data center loads in Northern Virginia.