August-like weather that one weatherman called “categorically insane” will settle over Texas this weekend, leading to ERCOT calling for generators to postpone planned outages or return to service.
The Texas grid operator said Wednesday in an emailed statement that it expects to have sufficient generation to meet above-normal demand this weekend from “unseasonably” hot weather. It said it anticipates temperatures in the high 90s Friday through Monday, and it forecasts demand to peak at 70.4 GW Monday afternoon.
The projected peak would smash the record peak for May of 67.3 GW set in 2018, but it’s off the all-time record of 74.8 GW set in August 2019. The problem is that about 20 GW of thermal generation, approximately a third of the fleet, has been offline this week during what is normally maintenance outage season.
ERCOT said it is “coordinating closely” with the Public Utility Commission, generation owners and transmission utilities to ensure “they are prepared for the extreme heat.”
A fiery forecast for Texas this weekend | Avery Tomasco via Twitter“ERCOT will deploy all the tools available to us to manage the grid reliably,” a spokesperson said. “At this time, ERCOT projects there will be sufficient generation to meet this high demand for electricity.”
The grid operator on Tuesday issued an operating condition notice, its lowest-level communication in anticipation of a possible emergency condition, and then an advance action notice (AAN). The latter notice was issued because of possible reserve capacity deficiencies Friday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Staff updated the AAN on Wednesday, saying they would seek 3.2 GW by adjusting outage schedules.
On Tuesday, Avery Tomasco, a weatherman for CBS affiliate KEYE-TV in Austin, forecasted temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for this weekend, the city’s earliest triple-digit day since 1998.
“Could be worse!” Tomasco tweeted. He said temperatures will approach 105 to 110 F along the center of a ridge of high pressure in the western part of the state.
Stoic Energy President Doug Lewin attributed the high demand to a combination of population growth — Texas’ population will hit 30 million this year, and it led all 50 states by adding 850 new residents a day between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau — extreme heat and poor energy efficiency.
“Texas gets 80% less energy reduction from efficiency than the ‘average’ state,” Lewin said. “This particularly hurts us in extreme temperatures.”
