California should have plenty of electricity available to meet demand over the next few years, even during extreme weather events or if new energy resource installations are delayed, the California Energy Commission (CEC) said in a new report.

The positive outlook is a change in flavor after difficulties over the past decade with rolling blackouts, emergency flex alerts, public safety power shutoffs and capacity shortages.

Now, the Golden State is expected to have more than 4,000 MW of surplus capacity this summer under normal conditions, while under an extreme shortage scenario, more than 700 MW of surplus will be available, the California Energy Resource and Reliability Outlook 2025 report says.

In 2024, California set “another record year for resource development — adding more than 6,800 MW of new capacity,” the report says. More of these new resources started operating before the summer season compared with the prior four years, with more than 49% of the added capacity in 2024 operating before the start of summer, which “contributed greatly to supporting grid reliability during the heat waves in July and September” of 2024, the report says.

Much of the credit for the optimistic reliability outlook also goes to eight new transmission projects, including the TransWest Express project, the Greenlink project, the Gateway South and West projects and the Southwest Intertie project. Some of these projects are operating, while others are close to operation or under construction.

Tariff and Import Uncertainties

One reliability unknown going forward, however, is the effect the Trump administration’s recent tariffs could have on electricity infrastructure equipment. The CEC warned new tariffs could have a major impact on electricity resources, such as circuit breakers, transformers, solar panels and battery storage systems. Tariffs on equipment might “significantly reshape market dynamics across the energy sector,” the report says.

“For utilities and renewable energy developers, tariffs can delay project timelines, create uncertainty and increase installation costs, potentially delaying completion dates,” the report says. “The impact varies widely depending on domestic manufacturing capacity — areas with robust local production might see minimal disruptions, while sectors reliant on specialized imported components could experience substantial price increases and supply shortages.”

Over the past two years, California also has become less reliant on imported power. In 2023 and 2024, CAISO requested less imported electricity than in 2021 and 2022 due to the installation of new energy resources — mostly battery storage facilities — in the state.

But even so, California continues to be a net importer of power: It pulls about 29% of its electricity from outside the state, particularly in the evening when electricity demand is highest.

Import availability also is decreasing for California due to tightening supply West-wide, the report says. CAISO has a total import limit of 11,665 MW and 5,500 MW during resource adequacy risk hours.

Beyond 2030, California’s grid can be “quite sensitive to a reduction in the resource build or a reduction in import availability,” according to the report. Even if the state adds all of its planned new resources between 2025 and 2035, the grid nonetheless will remain dependent on its neighbors for resource adequacy, the report says.