ERCOT has sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak demand under normal system conditions this spring, according to the seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) released last week.

The Texas grid operator is forecasting demand to top out at 64.7 GW, based on expected spring peak weather conditions. It expects to have 94.4 GW of resource capacity available for the spring season (March-May).

Staff has projected a 52.5% capacity planning reserve margin (PRM) for the spring that covers resource outages, lower-than-expected renewable output, and higher-than-expected customer demand. The PRM is not the same as operating reserve measures that focus on actual available capacity during real-time and hour-ahead operating periods.

The SARA report includes 14 reserve capacity risk scenarios developed according to varying load-forecast values and resource-availability parameters, divided into two separate periods: the March and April peak maintenance season and the May peak demand month. The scenarios are based on historical data, known changes expected in the near-term or reasonable assumptions regarding potential future events.

ERCOT has added 31 wind, solar and energy storage projects since November, with just over 1 GW of expected capacity contribution during peak demand. An additional 367 MW of planned gas-fired and wind resources are also expected to be available for spring’s peak demand.

The SARA report is intended to illustrate the range of resource adequacy outcomes that might occur and serves as a situational awareness tool for ERCOT’s operational planning purposes.

As has been the case since last summer, the SARA was issued in a market notice and without an accompanying media briefing.