NYISO on Tuesday reported sufficient capacity this winter to meet forecasted peak demand conditions, with a total of 42,415 MW of resources available.
“Recognizing the unique challenges that can accompany the upcoming winter season, NYISO operations staff has taken additional precautions and conducted extensive additional outreach to generators to maintain reliable bulk system operations for all New Yorkers,” NYISO CEO Rich Dewey said in a statement. “Despite the recent increase in commodity fuel prices, our markets will continue to help us meet this winter’s demand reliably at the least cost possible.
The ISO forecasts having 18,390 MW of capacity above its forecast peak demand of 24,025 MW. The forecast represents an increase of 1,483 MW over last winter’s peak of 22,542 MW on Dec. 16, 2020, but is 0.7% below the 10-year average winter peak of 24,203 MW.
“The state’s grid is well equipped to handle forecasted winter demand,” said Wes Yeomans, NYISO vice president of operations. “The NYISO operates the grid to meet reliability rules that are among the strictest in the nation and are designed to ensure adequate supply.”
NYISO reports sufficient capacity this winter, 42,415 MW, to meet forecasted peak electricity demand conditions. | NYISO
NYISO’s extreme winter weather scenario analyses show that peak demand could increase to as much as 26,230 MW. New York set its all-time winter peak in January 2014, when multiday polar vortex conditions pushed demand to 25,738 MW.
While that did not cause any bulk power system reliability issues, NYISO made changes to its market designs to provide stronger incentives for generators to secure fuel availability and enhance preparations for winter peak demand needs. The ISO also took steps to improve situational awareness of natural gas system conditions and enhance procedures for monitoring generator fuel inventories, including detailed surveys sent to generators across the state.
NYISO is monitoring regional fuel supplies, as indications are these could be limited in supply this winter, Yeomans said. U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicate oil inventories both regionally and throughout the country are lower than normal. Seasonal and weekly fuel surveys indicate oil and dual-fuel capability generation have sufficient start-of-winter oil inventories, but they are nonetheless lower than past years’ inventories.
The ISO also participated in various communications and coordination efforts with NERC, state agencies, other ISOs/RTOs and gas industry personnel, including the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, Natural Gas Supply Association, Northeast Gas Association, New York pipelines and local distribution companies.
Fully 97% of the generator survey respondents indicated that their winter preparation procedures include freeze protection measures that are in place for the coming winter.
Based on the February winter storm’s impact on ERCOT and SPP, NYISO performed a “gas-electric critical infrastructure survey effort,” reaching out and coordinating with local gas distribution companies and pipelines to identify critical electric circuits for the gas system. The ISO also reviewed load-shedding processes with New York utilities and surveyed demand response participants to identify “critical interdependent sub-sector loads.”