NYISO said Wednesday it is prepared to meet peak demand this summer, with a total of 42,169 MW of power resources available to cover an expected peak of 32,904 MW — 2.9% above the long-term average.
Demand last summer peaked at 29,699 MW on July 19, coming in 7% below the 10-year average of 31,968 MW. New York set its record peak of 33,956 MW at the end of a week-long heat wave in July 2013.
NERC standards mandate that each ISO/RTO secure enough day-ahead capacity to meet the single largest contingency. The ISO’s summer capacity assessment used a “deterministic approach” to approximate capacity margins and operating reserves for baseline and extreme weather conditions, according to Wes Yeoman, NYISO vice president of operations. The assessment uses a set of projected derates based on five-year Equivalent Forced Outage Rate demand averages.
At baseline peak weather conditions, the ISO forecasts 1,599 MW of capacity margin surplus, which is above the baseline peak load, plus 2,620 MW of required operating reserves. The baseline peak forecast is up 1,214 MW over last year’s forecast.
For the 90th percentile forecast of extreme weather conditions, the ISO projects a capacity margin shortfall of 241 MW, an increase of 1,683 MW over last year’s extreme weather forecast.
The ISO reported 39,325 MW of generating capacity available from power plants in New York and 1,219 MW of demand response resources plus another 1,625 MW available from neighboring regions.
“Based on historical performance, the net resources projected to be available to serve during the summer peak total 37,123 MW,” said the report.
New York’s 2018 operating reserve requirement of 2,620 MW is based on the potential loss of the system’s largest single resource. Peak demand combined with operating reserves translate into a total capacity requirement of 35,524 MW.
— Michael Kuser