By William Opalka

New York could accommodate up to 4,500 MW of wind generation and 9,000 MW of solar photovoltaic capacity by 2030 with no system reliability issues, according to a NYISO draft study released last week.

The backdrop to the “Solar Integration Study” is New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision initiative, which promotes adoption of cleaner and more distributed energy resources as well as state incentives that promote rooftop solar generation. New York’s Clean Energy Standard also mandates the state derive 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. (See Cuomo: 50% Renewables by 2030, Keep Nukes Going.) The NYISO study focuses on system impacts — rather than the costs or economics — of renewable energy.

A National Renewable Energy Laboratory study this year found that New York has the potential to install 46.4 GW of rooftop solar PV — which represents the upper limit of potential installations rather than a prediction, the study notes.

“The growth of solar PV energy as a source of electric generation is being strongly influenced by various public policy initiatives, including programs established by the State of New York in the State Energy Plan,” NYISO said.

The NYISO study included:

• Development of hourly solar profiles and a 15-year solar PV projection by zone in New York;
• “Lessons learned” and integration studies from other regions experiencing significant growth in solar and wind resources;
• The impact of various levels of solar PV and wind penetration on the state’s grid regulation requirements; and
• Potential reliability concerns associated with the frequency and voltage ride-through characteristics of solar installations.

The study points out that the $1 billion NY-Sun Initiative announced in 2012 will yield 3,000 MW of solar PV for the state, more than 500 MW of which had been installed by the end of 2015.

“As the penetration levels of solar PV and wind increase, any projected increases in regulation requirements are relatively minor and can readily be accommodated within the current market rules and system operations,” the study says.

The study recommends that NYISO advocate for industry standards requiring solar inverters to have voltage and frequency ride-through capabilities and request that the state establish similar requirements for the non-bulk power system.

NYISO says the study will lay the groundwork for additional research by the ISO.