WASHINGTON — Two members of the Senate Energy committee cited PJM’s struggles during January’s arctic cold to support their concerns about the impact of the Environmental Protection Agency’s pending greenhouse gas regulations.

Sens. Joseph Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said they fear EPA’s CO₂ limits on existing generators could threaten reliability by forcing coal plant closures in addition to those forecast by 2015 due to EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS).

“I was told we were within 700 megawatts of the whole PJM system coming down [during the January cold spells],” Manchin said. “That’s unconscionable.”

Murkowski said that for “one key grid” — which she later identified as PJM — “89% of coal slated for retirement next year was called upon during the cold spell.”

“A hope and a prayer is not the way we should be operating,” she added.

Voltage Reduction, Not Collapse

PJM spokesman Ray Dotter said Manchin’s reference was to the peak hour on Jan. 7, when the unexpected loss of 700 MW of generation — or a similar jump in demand — would have required a voltage reduction. “While a voltage reduction is a serious step, it is a tool used from time to time when power supplies are tight, and it is unnoticed by most consumers,” PJM said in a statement.

In response to Murkowski’s comment, Dotter acknowledged that PJM called a maximum emergency generation action to mobilize all available resources — including units slated for retirement and voluntary demand response —  several times in January.

“The experience in January reinforces the value of PJM’s capacity market rule changes to encourage more annual [demand response] resources and demonstrates the value of load management to system reliability throughout the year,” PJM said.

Despite the pending retirements, the RTO said it was confident it will have the resources necessary to ensure reliability. It cautioned that “operating reserves will narrow because excess resources will be retired, and energy prices could be more volatile.”

World’s Largest Fuel Switch

At PJM’s General Session after the NARUC conference, officials briefed stakeholders on what they called the “world’s largest fuel switch,” which will see the RTO’s coal- and gas-fired generation swap market shares, with coal capacity dropping to 50 GW from more than 70 GW while gas grows to 70 GW from more than 50 GW.

Andy Ott, PJM executive vice president for markets, presented a projection showing PJM’s installed generation dropping by a net of almost 3,500 MW (2%) by 2017, with 9,500 MW in additions and almost 13,000 MW in retirements.

The presentation included a look at the NYMEX forward curves for the PJM Western Hub monthly peak contract. Traders last month boosted prices for the winter 2014, 2015 and 2016 forwards, but summer prices remain below those that traders were paying last year (see chart).

“I think the forward curves are understated,” Ott said. “People haven’t realized how much net change in generation we are going to have.”