SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — MISO leadership shed more light on the RTO’s need for a pilot program to estimate load growth on a 20-year horizon after stakeholders asked for details.
MISO Executive Director of Markets and Grid Research DL Oates said MISO has fielded stakeholder questions since announcing its load-forecasting pilot. He said the many questions are a “flag” that it should better explain its plans. (See MISO Debuting Pilot for Better Long-term Load Forecasting.)
Oates said dramatic load growth is arriving just as MISO is experiencing tapering margins due to continued fleet change.
“All of this makes long-term planning more important and more difficult,” he said at the Organization of MISO States’ annual meeting Oct. 21.
He said MISO would update its late 2024 forecast and maintain annual load forecasting updates informed by future annual surveys.
In its 2024 load forecast edition, MISO predicted its 638 TWh of gross energy in 2024 would grow to anywhere from 921 to 1,225 TWh by 2044, driven mostly by data centers, electric vehicles and green hydrogen.
MISO previously said it could be navigating an annual peak around 140 GW by 2035. MISO’s 2025 summer peak nearly brushed 122 GW.
“It’s clear that new information has come to light since last year,” Oates said, adding that the pilot forecast would be “pretty exploratory.”
He said MISO doesn’t know how many members would respond to its survey and added that MISO likely would have to augment some questions in the next survey to improve data quality of responses.
Oates said MISO expects 13.8 GW in load additions in the near-term based on members’ expedited transmission project requests. But he said green hydrogen and electric vehicles likely would take a hit in MISO’s load forecasts due to policy changes within the federal government.
MISO plans to unveil its updated load estimates sometime in early 2026 after assembling member and national data.
In an early October letter answering FERC Chairman David Rosen’s questions about MISO’s large load forecasting, CEO John Bear said MISO recognizes “that more work must be done to address the new large load challenges, including leveraging new technologies and enhancing our processes.”
Bear said MISO’s pilot survey would help “shape enhancements to future long-term load forecasts.”
