By Amanda Durish Cook

MISO is gradually improving its ability to forecast the more sedate load profiles that have emerged in the face of widespread community measures to halt the COVID-19 pandemic, stakeholders learned Thursday.

The RTO is experiencing lower loads that no longer follow a sharp uptick in demand in the morning or evening, Director of Central Region Operations Ron Arness told stakeholders during a Reliability Subcommittee conference call Thursday.

“We have seen significant shifts in the morning and evening peaks. For instance, the morning peak has shifted from the usual 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. to about 11 a.m. or noon and then it’s not dropping off — and it’s staying steady until it dissipates in the evening,” Arness said. “It’s a more gradual increase. We’re seeing more steady peaks across the day, [and] we’ve not seen that evening bump-up in peak.”

MISO officials initially compared evolving load profiles to weekend usage patterns, but RTO staff now find that a slew of business closures have contributed to lower load than even typical weekend days. (See MISO Loads Down as Region Faces COVID-19 Threat.)

“There have been a lot more closures going on, in restaurants as well as industry. So, it’s not an exact weekend profile, but it’s close,” Arness said. “It’s down slightly — it’s still going down.”

MISO has experienced load forecasting errors for both on- and off-peak periods, Arness said, but he added that forecasters since March 23 have begun more aggressively predicting load shapes based on recent demand tracking and are each day manually inserting them into existing models.

Arness said that while MISO’s load was significantly down in March compared with a year earlier, most of the decline can be attributed to higher temperatures. Peak loads decreased 18% from 2019 and were down 13% from the March five-year average. March’s peak usually breaks just above 90 GW, but last month topped out at 79 GW.

“We believe most of that is due to the temperature,” Arness said.

MISO said the few weeks of load forecast errors have not impacted reliable operations.

“These are unprecedented times, and we’re starting to hone [in on] it and get a little better,” Arness said.

Varying Emergency Responses in Footprint

Arness also said the sheer size of MISO’s footprint means that its uncharted load forecasting doesn’t fit neatly into a new model. He pointed out that states in MISO South have not yet clamped down on gatherings or population movement in the stricter ways that Michigan or Illinois have through industry shutdowns and travel restrictions.

“That’s why we’re still seeing some continued changes in our numbers,” he said.

The Energy and Policy Institute reports that 22 state commissions — including seven in the MISO footprint — have so far ordered utilities to suspend disconnections as the pandemic wears on.

Wisconsin in particular has moved proactively to gauge the economic impact of stay-at-home measures on ratepayers and utilities. The state’s Public Service Commission has opened two new dockets: one to ensure customers can continue to access service, and the other to investigate the costs utilities are incurring under the public health emergency orders. Gov. Tony Evers suspended some of the PSC’s administrative rules so public utilities can waive late fees, halt disconnections, connect residents more quickly and without cash deposits, and offer deferred payment agreements for commercial, farm and industrial customers in addition to residential customers. Utilities are beginning to warn of deferred maintenance and financial impacts. (See AEP Warns of ‘Adverse’ Effects from Coronavirus.)

Northern Indiana Public Service Co.’s Bill SeDoris said his company is checking temperatures of employees before they’re allowed into company offices. He also said NIPSCO has brought in trailers to park on-site as temporary offices for customer service representatives.

“We’re giving them more space so they’re not on top of each other,” SeDoris said.

What Lies Ahead

MISO headed into April with the manual, day-by-day load forecasting in place.

“April is a time when we have big variety in temperatures. But generally, the load is lower,” Arness said.

MISO also plans to hold a summer readiness workshop April 28. It’s not yet clear how the pandemic will affect summer operations.

Arness emphasized that MISO needs ample warning from generators that foresee a need for conservative operations or outage rescheduling. He said MISO continued to observe an uptick in outage deferments over the past week. The RTO last month noted increased deferment of maintenance outages as utility work crews were scaled back as social distancing took hold.

“The plea here — I can’t say this often enough — is that you document the request. We’re really imploring the generation owners and operators to please keep MISO updated in terms of your plans. Please document them in writing,” Arness urged market participants, adding that the RTO needs all relevant information on changes in outage plans to navigate outage scheduling.

Jim Dauphinais, an attorney with the Coalition of Midwest Transmission Customers, asked how MISO was dealing with load-modifying resources (LMRs) that aren’t available with no personnel on-hand to lower load. He also wondered if some LMRs could even be considered deployed because they’re already shuttered because of shelter-in-place orders.

“There might be no demand reduction that would come from a MISO call since load is already reduced,” Dauphinais said, adding that the RTO should examine how LMRs in limbo could impact an emergency declaration.

Rob Benbow, MISO’s executive director of energy operations, asked all LMR owners to update their availability in the MISO Communication System. He said MISO would examine how LMRs that are temporarily unavailable or considered already deployed could impact resource adequacy.

Customized Energy Solutions’ Ted Kuhn asked if MISO is contemplating how it will best manage a return to normalcy once social distancing mandates are lifted and load picks up.

“There’s a good argument that load is going to return, but the question is will it return to those historical levels that we experienced a year ago. That’s a good question, and we’re studying it,” Arness said.

MISO will hold another Reliability Subcommittee meeting April 29, in which COVID-19 impacts will again be discussed.

“Be safe, take care of yourselves and your families,” SeDoris said before ending the call.