ERCOT’s new long-term load forecast for COVID-19 scenarios based on data provided by Moody’s Analytics indicates the Texas grid operator will continue to see a loss of demand into 2024.

Requested by stakeholders, the forecast relies on demand and energy data from adjusted peak load forecasts — based on historical weather years — that correlates with Moody’s economic forecast. Stakeholders can use the information to perform their own analyses, the grid operator said.

The scenarios used the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario (P90 forecast), which projects a 2024 peak demand of 84.3 GW. ERCOT’s 2020 long-term forecast foresees an 87.1-GW peak demand.

The scenarios include:

• a 90th percentile summer noncoincident peak by weather zone;
• ERCOT’s various peak demand scenarios;
• noncoincident peak forecast by weather zone;
• ERCOT monthly peak demand and energy forecasts; and
• coincident peak forecast by weather zone.

ERCOT is still publishing its weekly analysis of COVID-19’s effect on load. Its latest report indicates the grid operator was still seeing a 3-4% load reduction through May 10.

Plants Enter, Exit Mothballs

ERCOT will be losing 105 MW of year-round capacity after this summer, but it could also be adding 420 MW of capacity in 2021.

Austin Energy on Tuesday told ERCOT it plans to mothball its 105-MW, wood-fired Nacogdoches Power facility in East Texas, returning it for seasonal operations from May 15 to Oct. 15. The facility is the largest biomass plant in the U.S.

However, the grid operator has included the 420-MW coal-fired Gibbons Creek Generating Station, which was shut down last June, in its long-term assessment for 2021. The plant is expected to resume operations before next summer. (See Texas PUC Responds to Shrinking Reserve Margin.)

ERCOT said Gibbons Creek has met all criteria for inclusion in its capacity, demand and reserves (CDR) report, including an interconnection agreement signed by its current owner, Texas Municipal Power Authority. The agency operates the plant on behalf of the cities of Bryan, Denton, Garland and Greenville.

TMPA is in negotiations to sell the plant. In its report, ERCOT lists the “interconnecting entity” as TEERP Power Station.

Austin Energy acquired Nacogdoches Power from Southern Power last year. It has a 20-year power purchase agreement for the plant’s energy that expires in 2032.