Load Model Selection

PJM is recommending a 13-year load model using data from 2002 to 2014 for the 2020 reserve requirement study (RRS), a change from the 10-year model (2003-2012) that has been used for the last several years.

Patricio Rocha Garrido of PJM’s resource adequacy department presented the Planning Committee the results of the RTO’s load model selection process, which analyzed 105 different load model candidates for the 2020 RRS for the 2024/25 delivery year. Rocha Garrido said the analysis is based on the 2020 PJM Load Forecast Report released in January.

Stakeholders will vote on endorsing the load model at the August PC meeting.

The load model candidates were compared to PJM’s “coincident peak 1” (CP1) distribution analysis, Rocha Garrido said, which represents the highest load expected for the forecast year, using two separate approaches. The previously selected load model was not one of the top candidates this year, Rocha Garrido said, because of a new CP1 distribution analysis.

PJM is also again making the recommendation to switch the peak week for the MISO, NYISO, TVA and VACAR regions, known as the “world” in the analysis, to a different week in July that doesn’t coincide with its own peak. Rocha Garrido said the switch in world peak week is performed to match historical diversity observed between PJM and nearby regions.

Consultant James Wilson said he agrees with PJM’s methodology and that there is little relevance to whether the world and PJM happen to peak in the same week. Wilson said that what matters is whether the world peak happens in the same hour or a short period of hours as PJM’s peak.

American Electric Power’s David Canter said stakeholders are trying to figure out the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the load forecast. Canter asked if PJM plans to use the latest approved load forecast as a starting point for future load analysis or if alternative updated load forecasts could be used in cases where a major unforeseen circumstance like the current pandemic has happened.

Rocha Garrido said he would talk to fellow PJM colleagues to get their opinion on Canter’s question and provide an answer at the next PC meeting on Aug. 4. He said analysts have seen no major impacts in the load model released in January compared to current data changes from the pandemic.

Manual 14 Changes

Onyinye Caven of PJM presented a first read of changes to Manuals 14A, 14B and 14G, which incorporate Tariff changes from the RTO’s second Order 845 compliance filing.

FERC required PJM to add language on how the RTO handles surplus interconnection service and incorporation of technological advancements in its interconnection process. (See FERC OKs Most of PJM Order 845 Compliance Filing.)

The changes include new sections detailing the requirements for surplus interconnection requests and related definitions. They also include a new definition of permissible technological advancements and a section outlining the evaluation procedure.

PJM is seeking endorsement of the manual changes at the August PC meeting and a final endorsement at the Aug. 20 Markets and Reliability Committee meeting.

Attachment M-3 Update

Aaron Berner of PJM provided an update on changes since October 2019 to the information exchange process used by transmission owners planning supplemental projects under Tariff Attachment M-3.

Berner said PJM has changed its slide revision process for presentations at committee meetings based on stakeholder requests. Slides, including those of proposed supplemental transmission projects presented at the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee, now have red lines to show what was changed, Berner said. Projects with larger changes will have both the original and new slide posted.

Efforts are also underway to create an interactive map of proposed projects that is automated and updated in real time to give better insight into what is being proposed in an area of the system. Berner said the current presentation of maps involves manual insertion of objects in a database that results in a “static map.”

PJM is expanding its documentation to help its engineers in managing the M-3 process, including tracking the age of M-3 needs.

Multiple action items previously identified as issues are still being looked at, Berner said, including requests to improve outage tracking on slides, posting TO contact information.

COVID-19 Load Impacts

Weekday load peaks have dropped 8.2% (about 7,700 MW) since the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns began March 23, PJM’s Andrew Gledhill told the PC in a presentation.

Recent peak impacts have “noticeably eased” because of the relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions and increased air conditioning loads from hotter summer temperatures, Gledhill said.

The average energy reduction has been 8% since March 23. The “drag” on energy use — down 8% since March 23 — has also lessened but not as much as the impact on peak use, Gledhill said. The energy impact now exceeds the impact on the peak.

Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee

Reliability Analysis Update

Berner provided the TEAC with an update on the 2020 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) reliability analysis, highlighting a cost and scope change for the Windsor switching station in the Dominion Energy transmission zone in Virginia. Berner said the project, which was last presented to PJM in August of 2017, includes building a new 230/115-kV switching station connecting to a 230-kV network line.

As Dominion started examining the project, Berner said, issues were found in relation to maintenance outages with the proposed design and an end-of-life criteria issue. Berner said the station wouldn’t be able to back feed to deliver energy to customers in the area because of the design.

The project change includes moving from three single-phase 30 MVA, 230/115-kV transformers and a spare to two three-phase 84-MVA, 230/115-kV transformers. Berner said the change increases the scope cost from $11.5 million to $17.4 million with an in-service date by December of 2022.

Ed Tatum of American Municipal Power asked Berner for the reason for the move from 90 MVA to 84 MVA in the transformers to serve load. Tatum said it seemed like a “major change in philosophy” by Dominion to move from four single-phase to two three-phase transformers.

Kyle Hannah of Dominion said the change had nothing to do with the amount of load to be served to the customers and more with how to maintain service to the customers when maintenance switching is being done and from feedback from field operations workers to install a more efficient design.

Berner also highlighted a scope change on the 345/230-kV Homer City transformer project in the Penelec transmission zone in Pennsylvania. The project called for a new 345-kV breaker string with three 345-kV breakers at Homer City and moving the north autotransformer connection to the new breaker string.

Concerns arose as a result of the review of the substation, Berner said, resulting in the installation of one new 345-kV breaker and to relocate the 345-kV Homer City-Mainesburg line terminal and 345/230-kV Homer City north transformer terminal. Berner said there is no cost increase for the change in the $7 million project, and the required in-service date remains June 2021.

RTEP Windows Open

The 2020 RTEP window for solutions to reliability violations under PJM, NERC, SERC Reliability, ReliabilityFirst and local TO criteria opened July 1, Berner said, and will remain open for 60 days until Aug. 31. Berner said as of the day of the meeting, about 290 eligible flowgates had been posted in the window with some possible additions to be made within the week.

PJM also opened a second RTEP window for an end-of-life issue on the 500-kV Doubs-Goose Creek transmission line in the Dominion transmission zone. The 30-day RTEP window was also opened on July 1.

The project, which was presented at last month’s TEAC meeting, involves replacing steel lattice structures along the approximately 18-mile-long line. A third-party assessment determined that the towers have corroded to a point of instability and could result in failure and a collapse of the line if left unaddressed.

Tatum asked why two RTEP windows are being opened at the same time.

Berner said the 30-day window is an immediate-need issue and that PJM has leeway in the timing of immediate-need projects through the Operating Agreement.

“Because of the state of the line, we have to move forward as quickly as possible,” Berner said.