Although the coronavirus pandemic has sucked up most of the oxygen in this year’s presidential and congressional races, West Coast wildfires, record-breaking heat waves and more than two dozen tropical storms have also made climate change an issue impossible for voters to ignore.

A victory by former Vice President Joe Biden and a Democratic pickup of three Senate seats would reassert the U.S.’ commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change and give the party a shot at enacting legislation to meet the agreement’s targets. President Trump’s re-election — even if he faces a hostile Senate — would likely mean four more years of climate denialism and regulatory rollbacks. The Washington Post reported last week that Trump had “weakened or wiped out more than 125 rules and policies aimed at protecting the nation’s air, water and land, with 40 more rollbacks underway.”

Regardless of what happens in D.C., however, state officials are likely to continue pursuing their own clean energy targets. In addition to races in 86 of the 99 state legislative chambers and 11 gubernatorial contests, state regulators are facing re-election from Georgia to Montana, with a climate-related measure on the ballot in Nevada.

Biden Plan

In July, Biden outlined a $2 trillion plan to eliminate power sector carbon emissions by 2035 and make the U.S. the leader in electric vehicle production, calling the climate change challenge a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to jolt new life into our economy, strengthen our global leadership [and] protect our planet for future generations.” (See Biden Offers $2 Trillion Climate Plan.)

Biden pledged to build on the billions in clean energy investments of the Obama administration and reverse the Trump administration’s environmental rollbacks. The Democratic candidate’s proposal was developed with input from former presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) and is markedly more ambitious than the policies he backed during the primaries, when he called for spending $1.7 trillion over 10 years and eliminating CO2 emissions from power plants by 2050.

The shift reflects both his desire to motivate the liberal wing of the Democratic Party and to provide an economic stimulus to aid recovery from the pandemic. “We’re not just going to tinker around the edges,” he promised. “Science tells us we have nine years [to cut emissions] before the damage is irreversible, so my timetable [for] results is my first four years as president.”

The plan proposes funding to support EVs, improve energy efficiency and reduce the costs of clean energy technologies. Seeking to head off criticism that the plan will harm the economy, Biden framed his proposal as an economic development program, repeatedly referring to creation of “union” jobs.

Fracking an Issue in Pa.

During repeated campaign visits to the crucial state of Pennsylvania, Trump has warned that the former vice president will seek to eliminate fracking. Biden has denied the claim, saying only that he will end subsidies for fossil fuels and stop issuing new drilling permits on federal lands and waters.

ClearView Energy Partners calculated that the 10 counties responsible for 91% of Pennsylvania’s natural gas production had a significant role in Trump’s narrow 2016 win in the state. Except for Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, all of the top gas-producing counties voted for Trump, who added almost 31,000 votes to the total that GOP candidate Mitt Romney received in 2012. Trump won the state by less than 45,000 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a difference of 0.72%. Pennsylvania holds 20 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.

Congress

Democrats are expected to hold or increase their current 232-197 edge in the House of Representatives. (There are also five vacancies and one Libertarian.) But approving legislation to implement Biden’s plans would likely require them to take control of the Senate, now held by Republicans 53-47, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Polling indicates the Democrats will likely lose a seat in Alabama but gain one each in Colorado and Arizona. Democratic candidates also are within reach in toss-up races in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, South Carolina and Montana. A blue wave could also threaten Republican seats in Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Georgia’s second seat.

FERC

A Biden win also would give Democrats control over three of FERC’s five commission seats once Republican Chairman Neil Chatterjee’s term expires June 30, 2021. Democratic Commissioner Richard Glick has repeatedly clashed with Chatterjee and other Republicans over their approvals of natural gas infrastructure and rulings subjecting state-subsidized renewables in PJM and NYISO to minimum price floors, harming their ability to compete in RTO capacity markets. But Glick joined Chatterjee last month in proposing a policy statement inviting states to introduce carbon pricing in the RTO markets. (See FERC: Send Us Your Carbon Pricing Plans.)

The commission is currently controlled 2-1 by Republicans. In July, Trump nominated Democrat Allison Clements, energy policy adviser for the Energy Foundation, and Republican Mark Christie, chair of the Virginia State Corporation Commission, to fill the two vacancies. (See FERC Nominees Bob and Weave Through Senate Hearing.)

Arizona Corporation Commission

In the West, Nevada voters will decide whether to require half the state’s electricity to come from clean energy resources by 2030, and voters in Arizona, Montana and New Mexico will vote for utility regulators in contentious races that could determine their states’ energy futures.

Three of the seats on the five-member Arizona Corporation Commission are up for grabs Tuesday, with only one incumbent on the ballot.

The commission, which regulates utilities and rates, voted Thursday to make the state the latest in the West to follow California’s lead and adopt a 100% clean energy mandate by mid-century. New Mexico and Washington have similar mandates approved by lawmakers.

The commission, which has four Republicans and one Democrat, voted 3-2. Chairman Bob Burns and Commissioner Boyd Dunn, neither of whom is seeking re-election, voted with Democrat Sandra Kennedy in support of the measure.

“The climate crisis is impacting Arizonans right now,” Kennedy said in a statement after the vote. “I am glad the commission was finally able to look past partisan politics to support science and economics-based policy that stakeholders, utilities and ratepayers could all agree upon and benefit from.”

The question of renewable energy and California’s influence on the more conservative Arizona has been a major source of contention in state politics and the utility industry.

Arizonans voted overwhelmingly in 2018 to reject Proposition 127, a measure that would have required the state’s power providers to generate at least half their annual sales of electricity from renewable resources by 2030. The race became a high-priced battle between California billionaire Tom Steyer, whose environmental advocacy group NextGen America backed the proposal, and Arizona Public Service (APS), which spent more than $50 million in the fight. (See High Failure Rate for Western Ballot Measures.)

Critics say APS has too much influence on commissioners, including through campaign contributions.

Six candidates are seeking the seats held by Burns, Dunn and Republican Lea Marquez Peterson — the only incumbent on the ballot.

The Washington Post reported Friday that billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an advocate of carbon-free energy, had contributed $6.3 million to the three Democrats running: William “Bill” Mundell, Shea Stanfield and Anna Tovar. Two Republicans, Jim O’Connor and Eric Sloan, are also on the ballot.

The three leading vote-getters will join Kennedy and Justin Olson on the commission.

Arizona is one of 11 states where utility regulators are elected, not appointed by a governor or lawmakers. Also facing elections Tuesday, according to Ballotpedia, are regulatory commissioners in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. (The 11th, Mississippi, elects its state officials in odd-numbered years, always in the year preceding the presidential election.)

The Montana race features Democrats running for two open seats on the all-Republican Public Service Commission, which has been plagued by infighting and scandal in recent years, the Montana Free Press reported. The commission’s support of coal power is out of sync with the growing progressive populations of cities such as Missoula and Bozeman, making change in the commission’s makeup and state energy policies a possibility this year.

New Mexico PRC

In New Mexico, lawmakers placed a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would shake up the state’s Public Regulation Commission by letting the governor appoint three at-large members in place of the five members now elected by geographic district. Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers overwhelmingly backed the ballot measure, and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) supports it.

Many elected officials were angry with PRC commissioners for what they called an attempt to skirt the state’s landmark 2019 Energy Transition Act, signed by Lujan Grisham, which requires the state’s investor-owned utilities to get all their electricity from carbon-free sources by 2045. (See New Mexico Moves Toward Clean Energy, EIM Participation.)

Two current members of the PRC — Cynthia Hall and Stephen Fischmann — back the amendment, saying some of those elected to the PRC lack the backgrounds needed to understand complex regulatory issues.

Other members of the PRC argue that allowing the governor to appoint its members would deprive voters, especially those in rural disadvantaged communities, of the opportunity to influence ratemaking and policy decisions. (See Energy Amendments on NM, Nevada Ballots.)

Nevada Question 6

Nevada’s Question 6 asks voters for the second time in two years whether the state should make clean energy goals a part of its constitution.

A law signed by Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in April 2019 requires the state to get half its electricity from non-carbon-emitting resources by 2030, but environmentalists worry it could be overturned by elected officials if the political winds shift.

Amendments to Nevada’s constitution must be approved in two consecutive elections, so the question faces a final vote this year after winning 59% support in 2018. That effort, like the current one, was bankrolled by Steyer.