ERCOT said Monday that it has sufficient installed capacity to meet system demand this fall and winter.
The final fall seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) indicates the Texas grid operator will have nearly 84 GW of capacity to meet a projected peak demand of 61 GW during October and November. The preliminary SARA for the winter season (December-February) anticipates a peak demand of 62.3 GW.
The fall SARA — based on normal weather conditions during peak demands from 2003 through 2017 — adds almost 2 GW of planned additional capacity: 296 MW of gas-fired generation, 732 MW of wind and 170 MW of solar resources. It also includes 13,833 MW of forecasted unit outages, based on historical averages for the past three years.
“Our studies show we have sufficient generation for the fall season,” Manager of Resource Adequacy Pete Warnken said in a statement.
An additional 1,179 MW of planned winter-rated capacity is expected to be added between now and December. The final winter SARA will be released in early November.
ERCOT began the summer with 78.9 GW of available capacity and an 8.6% reserve margin.
The SARA report assesses generation availability and expected peak demand conditions at the time it is prepared. The assessment takes into account expected generation outages for routine maintenance and a range of outage scenarios and weather conditions that could affect seasonal demand.
— Tom Kleckner
