By Amanda Durish Cook
CARMEL, Ind. — MISO doesn’t expect any challenges meeting demand this fall, announcing last week that its supply should outpace its relatively tame peak forecast by about 36 GW.
The RTO estimates it will have 148 GW in total available capacity for the season, plenty to cover an expected 112-GW fall peak.
“That 112 GW is 3 GW lower than what we experienced in September 2017,” Jeanna Furnish, MISO manager of outage coordination, said at Thursday’s Market Subcommittee meeting.
But in keeping with the past several seasonal assessments, the RTO was careful to say that high-load, high-outage scenarios could trigger emergency procedures.
To generate its load forecasts, MISO partly relies on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has predicted higher-than-normal temperatures for the southern and eastern portions of the RTO’s footprint.
Furnish began the seasonal outlook by polling stakeholders on a family dispute. “When does fall start? The astronomical definition of Sept. 23 at 3:50 a.m. [EDT], or the meteorological definition of Sept. 1?”
Those at MISO’s headquarters overwhelmingly favored the astronomical approach.
MISO’s fall, however, is effective throughout September, where the risk of emergency procedures is most pronounced in the face of high load. During the month, the RTO could dip into its load-modifying resources and operating reserves in a 117-GW, high-load scenario even when outages aren’t considered a problem.
Furnish said a high-load, high-outage scenario paints a “bleaker picture” in which MISO might use the top end of its 13.7 GW in reserves. However, the RTO expects an average 111.3 GW of probable load during September. In October and November, MISO load is not expected to exceed 96 GW, and probable load will likely hover around 90 GW.
Furnish ended by joking she wouldn’t be doing her MISO duty if she didn’t urge members to submit outages as early as possible.
“Please make sure your company’s outages are in, for not only this fall, but also next spring. … It’s never too early to think about spring,” she said.
