By William Opalka

BOSTON – ISO-NE’s draft Regional System Plan shows flat load growth through 2024 due to growing solar PV and energy efficiency but predicts challenges from generation retirements and integration of variable resources.

The plan, released at a presentation last week, also cites eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island as having the greatest need for new generation.

Load is growing annually at about 1.3%, said Michael Henderson, director, regional planning and coordination for ISO-NE. “But you subtract photovoltaics and energy efficiency, it comes down to about 0.6%,” he said.

The net summer peak average forecast is 26,565 MW for 2015, which grows to 27,875 MW for 2024. Winter load is slowly growing, but that peak is at night, when PV is of no help.

‘Tremendous’ Renewable Potential

The study says the region has “tremendous potential” for renewable energy, but it requires additional transmission, revisions to interconnection requirements and improved forecasting to ease their integration.

The region had 908 MW of solar capacity (nameplate rating) at the end of 2014, which is expected to grow to 2,449 MW over the next decade.

“As these [interconnection] improvements are made, it can only act to promote distributed resources because they will then be interconnected in a more reliable way and the overall system will be more tolerant of distributed resources,” Henderson said.

The region has almost 2,000 MW of wind capacity with another 4,100 MW in the interconnection queue. “Proposed onshore wind resources are predominantly in northern New England, and offshore resources are being proposed off the southeastern New England coast,” the study says. “A number of wind projects have interconnected to areas of the regional power system that have favorable wind conditions but are electrically remote and weak, and additional wind projects are proposed for these areas.”

Capacity Additions

A bright spot is the additional generation resources attracted in the ninth Forward Capacity Auction. (See Exelon, LS Power Join CPV in Adding New England Capacity.) The report cites improved incentives for resource performance and the use of a sloped system demand curve in the Forward Capacity Auctions to reduce price volatility.

“The addition of natural gas pipeline capacity or the increased use of existing [liquefied natural gas] facilities also could improve fuel assurance and regional reliability,” the study says.

The plan reiterates previous concerns about the north-south transmission corridor that starts north of Boston and runs through the metropolitan area into Rhode Island. New resources in the NEMA/SEMA/RI areas would provide the greatest reliability benefit.

Interregional Planning

The study calls for increased coordination of planning with other systems “particularly to provide access to a greater diversity of resources, including hydro and variable resources, and to meet environmental compliance obligations.”