By Tom Kleckner
ERCOT said last week it continues to expect to have sufficient resources to meet projected peak-demand during the spring and summer, with more than 79,000 MW of generation capacity available.
The Texas grid operator is projecting a spring demand peak of 58,279 MW, a 700-MW increase from last November’s preliminary spring assessment, said Pete Warnken, ERCOT’s manager of resource adequacy, during a March 1 conference call. The revised peak is based on weather conditions from May 2006; the previous estimate used average weather conditions from 2002 to 2014.
Warnken said staff took into account multiple scenarios under a variety of conditions in issuing its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for this spring. The report includes a new scenario based on low wind power output during peak hours.
ERCOT estimates that even with 9,482 MW of maintenance and forced outages in May, it will still have 11,598 MW of capacity available for operating reserves, well above the 2,300 MW considered acceptable.
The spring forecast is based on expected weather conditions similar to those that occurred in May 2006 and typical seasonal generation outages, based on historical performance. ERCOT expects the spring peak to occur in late May, following completion of most seasonal plant maintenance to prepare for summer’s heat.
“The month of May shows potential for above-normal temperatures, which could lead to an early taste of summer,” said ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman.
The grid operator’s latest SARA includes more than 200 MW of installed solar capacity. ERCOT estimates solar resource availability at a 58% capacity factor — or 171 MW — based on its typical performance during peak spring conditions.
ERCOT’s preliminary summer SARA projects a summer peak of 70,588 MW, its first peak above 70,000. The current record is 69,877 MW, set last August.
ERCOT estimates it will have more than 79,000 MW of available generation this summer, including an additional 731 MW of fossil, nuclear and biomass generation from the preliminary spring SARA, 1,068 MW of new gas-fired generation and 723 MW of additional wind energy.
The final summer SARA is scheduled to be released in May.
