By Tom Kleckner
Despite the retirement of more than 3.5 GW of generation, ERCOT said Wednesday it has enough installed capacity available to meet forecasted peak demand through May 2018.
The ISO expects to have almost 81 GW of total capacity available this winter, more than enough to meet a projected peak of more than 61 GW. That would break the winter peak demand record of 59.75 GW, set last January.
ERCOT removed 3,551 MW of recently announced generation retirements from the final seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) report for the winter season (December-February). That includes 1,200 MW of capacity still being studied to determine whether it is needed to maintain system reliability.
Luminant accounted for most of the retired resources. The company said last month it will shut down three coal plants totaling 4.2 GW by the end of February. (See Vistra Energy to Close 2 More Coal Plants.)
“ERCOT still expects to have sufficient systemwide operating reserves for the winter season,” Pete Warnken, the ISO’s manager of resource adequacy, said Wednesday. “Our studies show this would be the case even with a much higher-than-expected peak demand.”
The winter SARA includes nearly 1.4 GW of mostly renewable capacity. The wind and solar projects are expected to contribute 209 MW to the winter peak.
ERCOT Senior Meteorologist Chris Coleman said he expects a mild winter overall, with some very cold periods in mid-winter.
The ISO’s preliminary assessment for the spring months (March-May) was equally optimistic. Staff projects a season peak of more than 59 GW, and expects to have 80.7 GW of capacity available.
The final spring SARA report will be released in early March.
ERCOT’s most recent Capacity, Demand and Reserves report indicated the ISO had an 18.9% reserve margin for next summer, with margins remaining above 18% the following three years. A revised CDR report incorporating the latest retirements will be released in December.
