Higher-than-average temperatures in parts of the U.S. could reduce electricity and natural gas demand and help prevent energy shortfalls this winter, FERC staff said in the commission’s 2023-2024 Winter Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment, released Nov. 16.
However, the possibility of one or more prolonged cold weather events, along with drought and wildfires continuing through the season, means significant reliability risks remain, NERC staff told commissioners at FERC’s open meeting.
The concern was stated most bluntly by Mark Lauby, NERC’s chief engineer, who spoke after Commissioners Allison Clements and Mark Christie responded to FERC staff’s presentation of the report. Although Clements noted the mild weather forecast and natural gas futures prices as “areas for optimism,” and Christie said “hopefully we’ll get through [winter] with some luck,” Lauby professed to being “taken aback” by the commissioners’ comments.
“I don’t like to plan on hopes and dreams,” Lauby said, noting NERC’s own recently released 2023 Winter Reliability Assessment warned that much of the North American electric grid faces elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls in December, January and February. (See NERC: Grid Risks Widespread in Winter Months.) “And even if, in fact, we have an average winter, that doesn’t mean we won’t have a cold spell during the winter. … That’s the kind of stuff that keeps me up at night.”
Mild Temperatures in North, West
FERC’s assessment cited the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal temperature outlook, which predicted that a strong El Niño effect in the Pacific Ocean will bring warm temperatures to the West Coast, leading to a strong likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures across the northern U.S. The Southern states are equally likely to experience below-average temperatures as they are to experience above-average ones.
The likelihood of higher temperatures during the winter months — particularly in colder regions of the country — suggests less energy will be needed for heating and a lower likelihood of insufficient gas for both heating and electricity, FERC’s report said. But the assessment also noted that NOAA’s forecasts “do not include the probability of extreme cold weather events,” which can affect energy supply and demand in unforeseen ways, and that “below-freezing temperatures can stress critical infrastructure … especially natural gas facilities.”
Drought conditions are also expected to persist in the central U.S. through winter, potentially causing problems for hydropower plants in the north-central U.S. and lack of fresh water for thermal plants in the south-central areas. Similar conditions are predicted for the Pacific Northwest as well. In addition, the Canadian wildfire season — including several large existing fires — is now expected to continue into winter, which could affect regions in the U.S. with connections to Canada such as WECC, MISO and ISO-NE.
Drops Expected in Gas, Electricity Prices
FERC’s report said natural gas prices are expected to be lower this winter than in previous years, despite rising demand, thanks to growing production and high natural gas storage levels. But while market fundamentals “indicate adequate availability of natural gas at the national level,” local fuel availability may still be affected by “regional constraints.”
According to the assessment, the predicted average natural gas demand is expected to reach 122.4 Bcfd, 4% over last winter and 7.2% more than the previous five-year average. Electricity generation constitutes about a quarter of this demand, at 32 Bcfd, with residential and commercial use making up the largest share, at 42.3 Bcfd. The biggest growth in demand is from net natural gas exports, which are projected to average 13 Bcfd this winter, up 21% from winter 2022-2023 and 62% from the previous five-year average.
Gas futures prices Nov. 1 were lower than the final settled futures prices for last year at all of the trading hubs cited in the report, and at several hubs, they were below the previous year’s final settled prices as well. FERC’s report attributed last winter’s soaring prices to the impact of Winter Storm Elliott in late December.
Wholesale electricity prices are also projected to decline at most major pricing hubs compared to last winter, the assessment said, with the greatest difference seen in the West, where last year’s record high gas prices contributed to higher electricity prices as well. Declines of at least $5/MWh are also expected in the Southeast, NYISO and PJM.
In SPP, prices are expected to increase from $37.81 on average last winter to $38.21 this winter. However, SPP is projected to have the lowest wholesale electricity prices on average of any region, the report said.
