PJM Presents Operations Road Map

VALLEY FORGE, Pa. — The Operating Committee discussed PJM’s timeline for addressing technological and operational challenges the RTO plans to address over the next four years.

The document is one in a series of outlines PJM has formed to track the various stakeholder and internal staff efforts to address reliability issues identified in its Ensuring a Reliable Energy Transition analyses. The market-oriented road map was presented during the July 10 Market Implementation Committee meeting, while its planning sibling remains under design as staff works on FERC Order 1920 compliance. (See “PJM Presents Road Map of Market Design Changes,” PJM MIC Briefs: July 10, 2024.)

PJM Senior Director of Market Design Rebecca Carroll said the road maps are meant to be updated as new efforts begin or are completed, with the aim of ensuring none of the working areas fall through the cracks.

The operations road map includes:

• • Enhancing forecasting of intermittent resources, behind-the-meter generation and changing load behavior.
  • Implementing the Control Room 2030 plan to build dispatcher tools to facilitate the deployment of large volumes of intermittent, distributed and storage resources.
  • Continuing upgrades to PJM’s suite of energy management system (EMS) software, focusing on network application, training system and model management tools.
  • Developing risk-based operations approaches that account for variance in forecast error, generator outage performance and time of year considerations. That could impact reserve and regulation procurement or other operational decisions.
  • Continuing gas-electric coordination efforts to incorporate information about the gas pipeline and generation fleet into PJM operations.
  • Incorporating intermittent forecasting into the transmission outage analysis and approval process.
  • Ensuring any changes to reserve market structures remain aligned with operational needs.

PJM’s Chris Pilong said the number of risks the grid faces is increasing, challenging the ability for operators to schedule the appropriate generation with optimal lead times. Some of the initiatives likely will require the focus of stakeholders and the RTO indefinitely, such as the electric-gas coordination efforts that have been ongoing for a decade and are likely to continue as the gas industry evolves with shifting economics and policies.

Several stakeholders recommended PJM publish the three road maps and their related materials in one place for easy retrieval and provide more insight into in which forums each issue will be discussed.

Paul Sotkiewicz, president of E-cubed Policy Associates, said all of the items on PJM’s road map are interrelated topics, and he’s concerned that if they’re addressed in siloes, holistic solutions may remain out of reach.

Pilong said staff are coordinating across departments and when topics are brought to stakeholders PJM wants to make sure they’re brought to the correct working group.

Sotkiewicz also argued it’s inappropriate for the RTO to include the facilitating of decarbonization policies reliably in its three “Pillars of Strategy” guiding the focus of the road map. Instead, he said the focus should remain locked in on reliability amid changes external to PJM.

Voltage Reduction Action Test Planned

PJM plans to conduct a voltage reduction test Aug. 14 and 15 to validate a capability the RTO has not used for more than a decade.

Senior Dispatch Manager Kevin Hatch said the test is one of the recommendations in a PJM report on the performance of the grid in the wake of the December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott, when a voltage reduction warning was issued, and one additional generator trip could have required an action. The previous voltage reduction action PJM issued was in January 2014. (See PJM Recounts Emergency Conditions, Actions in Elliott Report.)

The Mid-Atlantic region will undergo testing at 2 p.m. ET on Aug. 14, followed by the western and southern regions the following day at the same hour. If the test cannot be conducted as scheduled, Aug. 28 and 29 have been identified as alternatives. The test is scheduled to run for half an hour.

The test will simulate a 5% voltage reduction on a load level above the seasonal upper quartile.

Hatch said the goals of the test are to determine whether changes in the characteristics of PJM load have led to any shifts in the efficacy of voltage reduction actions, to examine the functionality of updated procedures and to provide training for staff and members. PJM does not have a regular voltage reduction testing regimen, but Hatch said ISO-NE and other regions conduct tests twice a year.

Operating Error Metrics Improve in July, 153 GW Monthly Peak Load

July 16 saw one of the highest peaks for the month in PJM’s history at 153 GW. Presenting the month’s load forecast error, PJM’s Marcus Smith said the month as a whole averaged 5 GW higher than an average July.

PJM’s average peak and hourly forecast error rates for July both fell squarely at their 25-month averages of 1.64% and 1.52%, respectively.

The day-ahead forecast error did exceed PJM’s 3% target on a handful of days. July 13 saw a 5% under forecast as temperatures came in hotter than expected, while the following day was over forecast by about 6.5% because of storms bringing temperatures 15 degrees lower than anticipated.

Eight shared reserve events, three spin events and eight hot weather alerts were issued across the month. Generator trips led to two shortage cases on July 28 and one on July 8.

Social Manipulation Attacks a Rising Cybersecurity Threat

Artificial intelligence increasingly is being used in social manipulation cyberattacks, PJM’s Jim Gluck said, warning stakeholders that critical infrastructure is experiencing attacks at a higher rate than the economy as a whole.

He pointed to a software company that was targeted recently through its hiring process by attackers impersonating a prospective employee. Four video interviews, validation of credentials and background checks failed to identify that a stolen identity was being used and profile images augmented with AI. Once the individual was hired for the position, a company computer was mailed out, malicious software was installed on it and a breach was attempted. The company identified the attack and revoked the computer’s access before systems could be compromised.

Attackers also have taken advantage of widespread disruption caused by an issue with antivirus software developed by CrowdStrike. Individuals have impersonated CrowdStrike employees offering assistance with recovery to gain access to Microsoft systems.

“We’ve got to make sure we’ve got the processes in place to detect these kinds of situations wherever they are,” Gluck said.

Implementing multi-factor authentication, patching software regularly and staying vigilant for phishing attacks can reduce the risk of attacks being successful, he said.