The decarbonization of New England’s electricity system will require deployment of significant quantities of renewables and energy storage complemented by firm capacity from nuclear, gas-fired power plants, carbon-capture facilities, hydrogen generation or other options, according to a new study.
“Net-Zero New England: Ensuring Electric Reliability in a Low-Carbon Future,” co-authored by Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) and Energy Futures Initiative (EFI), studied how the electricity system can meet the challenges of growing demand and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to nearly zero by 2050.
All six New England states have adopted economy-wide GHG reduction targets of at least 80% by 2050, with Massachusetts recently adopting a net-zero commitment. Through decarbonization of electricity supply and the electrification of transportation and buildings, the grid will play a critical role in achieving regional and state targets.
EFI CEO and founder Ernest Moniz, former secretary of energy during the Obama administration, presented the study’s key findings in a keynote address to the New England Energy Summit on Monday.
Net-zero Goals vs. Increased Demand
Profound change is required across all energy sectors to achieve the decarbonization goals in New England, the study stated. Presently, transportation and buildings make up two-thirds of the region’s emissions. The study listed prime strategies for mitigating economy-wide GHGs, including aggressive deployment of energy efficiency, widespread building and transportation electrification, development of low-carbon fuels and deep decarbonization of electricity supply.
Regionally, electricity demand will increase significantly over the next three decades under the study’s net-zero scenarios. In the two bookend scenarios, annual electricity demand grows 60 to 90% — 70 to 110 TWh — from the present. Peak demand is predicted to reach 42 to 51 GW as peaking shifts from summer to winter in the 2030s. The growth is driven by the electrification of transportation and buildings that currently rely on fossil fuels. This demand increase will occur even with significant energy efficiency resources.
Study scenarios selected a diverse mix of 47 to 64 GW of new renewable generation capacity needed by 2050. The study found renewables — which include land-based solar and wind, offshore wind and distributed solar, along with 3.5 GW of new incremental Canadian hydro — will play a significant role in providing zero-carbon energy to the region.
New England’s limited land availability means greenfield development will be required for renewables to reach adequate scale, even if opportunities to develop brownfield sites, rooftops and marginal lands are maximized, the study found. It also found that New England’s geography, the slow pace of electric transmission planning and historical difficulty siting new infrastructure are significant challenges.
A decarbonized grid requires firm generating capacity, and natural gas and nuclear generation are the primary sources of firm capacity in New England. Solar, wind and battery storage technologies will play large roles in the future regional system, but reliance on these resources alone would require substantial quantities of renewable energy and storage and would be too costly.
In practice, as much as 46 GW of firm capacity could be needed in 2050 to ensure resource adequacy. The study included 34 GW of gas generation, 3.5 GW of existing nuclear, 8 GW of imports and 1 GW of biomass and waste.
Significant gas capacity is retained even though the gas plants operate far fewer hours and contribute less energy and emissions to the region. New resources potentially developed and deployed to provide low-carbon firm capacity, such as advanced nuclear, natural gas plants with carbon capture and sequestration, long-duration energy
storage or generation from carbon-neutral fuels such as hydrogen. These resources would require significant investments in supporting infrastructure; for example, natural gas with CCS or hydrogen would require pipelines connecting New England to regions with suitable geology for carbon sequestration or hydrogen storage.
“Fundamentally, one way or another, we are going to need significant firm generation in order to have a reliable and resilient system,” Moniz said. “There are still some uncertainties that need to be addressed in that context, such as the need for long-term storage. There will be substantial infrastructure needs, and that frankly has been a significant challenge in New England. The path forward is not only through technical innovation but also through innovation in the policy and regulatory environment to allow the needed infrastructure to be built in a timely way.”
Technology Choices
The study also concluded that a broad range of technology choices could lower costs and risks. The availability of low-carbon firm generation technologies — such as advanced nuclear or natural gas with CCS — could provide significant savings and reduce the pressure of renewable development on New England’s lands and coastal waters. In addition to reducing costs, a portfolio approach to making low-carbon firm generating resources available mitigates the risks that one or more technologies do not materialize as expected.
Meeting net-zero GHG emissions requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), though that alone will not be enough to achieve economy-wide decarbonization or meet the region’s policy targets. The lack of suitable geology for carbon sequestration makes direct air capture and bioenergy with CCS an imperfect solution, but a large stock of forests provides an excellent opportunity for in-region CDR.
“We need CDR to get to net-zero, probably beyond the borders of New England,” Moniz said. “We need to use the innovation capacity that this region is blessed with, hand in hand with what I believe will be a major federal push and a bipartisan push for really upping the game on the innovation of these clean energy pathways.” He added that the New England congressional delegation “should get fully behind a thrust to increase the innovation focus in the federal government.”
“By increase, I’m not talking here about 10% increases,” Moniz said. “I mean a doubling or tripling of the federal research and development budgets.”
Commercialization of emerging technologies can be additionally aided by leveraging regional innovation capacity, according to the study. Policymakers can increase the likelihood of commercializing emerging technologies by orienting the homegrown efforts of private, public and academic researchers already developing science and business innovations relevant to decarbonization. Specifically, advanced nuclear, long-duration storage and renewable fuels are innovation areas with tremendous regional potential, the study stated, and could play a role in supporting a low-carbon power sector, especially when localized efforts coordinate with federally funded programs.