ERCOT said Thursday it will have enough installed capacity to meet forecasted demand this winter and spring thanks in part to a record of new installed wind capacity.
The grid operator said it is on track to add more than 5 GW of wind capacity this year. It currently has 29.3 GW of installed capacity and expects 38.4 GW installed or under some form of study in its interconnection queue by 2024.
ERCOT also expects utility-scale solar to more than double since the end of 2019. It began this year with almost 2.3 GW of solar capacity but will end it with nearly 5.2 GW, including more than 750 MW with signed interconnection agreements.
All told, the grid operator’s seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) indicates that it will have nearly 83 GW of capacity available to meet a projected winter peak of 57.7 GW that is based on recent historical winter peaks. The assessment for December-February includes an additional 928 MW and 35 MW of wind and solar winter-rated capacity, respectively.
ERCOT’s all-time winter peak is 65.92 GW, set in January 2018.
“In the winter, we’re dealing with morning and evening peaks and sometimes extreme volatility in the weather,” Pete Warnken, ERCOT’s manager of resource adequacy, said in a statement. “We studied a range of potential risks under both normal and extreme conditions and believe there is sufficient generation to adequately serve our customers.”
ERCOT also released its preliminary SARA for the spring season (March-May 2021). It includes a low-wind output scenario for the first time but still predicts ample generation capacity to meet an anticipated peak demand of 64.5 GW. The grid operator expects to have an additional 4.3 GW of spring-rated resource capacity on hand.
