By Amanda Durish Cook

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO expects to have enough reserves on hand throughout spring to meet expected demand.

The RTO predicts spring energy usage will peak at 100 GW in May, with about 134 GW of total projected capacity available to meet load. MISO’s spring peak record of 107 GW occurred May 29, 2018.

“The 2020 spring is projected to be a very typical spring,” Senior Manager of Resource Adequacy Coordination Lynn Hecker told the Market Subcommittee on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts above-normal spring temperatures for areas within MISO South, with the rest of the footprint at normal levels.

As with most of MISO’s preseason assessments, Hecker said high load coupled with high generation outages could have the RTO calling up load-modifying resources and operating reserves.

Following its usual practice, MISO is preparing for higher generation outages on peak during spring. Potential reliability risks are most pronounced in April — when outages can historically near 45 GW — even though load is roughly 10 to 16 GW lower than in March or May.

“We are expecting to maybe dip into load-modifying resources in the 90/10 forecast,” Hecker said. That forecast represents a scenario in which there is a 90% chance of actual load being lower than predicted and a 10% chance of load being higher.

In the most likely 50/50 load scenario with a normal capacity supply, MISO won’t have to call on reserves in either March, April or May. However, if load is unusually high, the RTO runs the risk of entering emergency operating procedures.

The spring supply picture gets more dire if high-load scenarios pair with higher-than-expected generation outages, especially in April, a favorite month for scheduled maintenance. MISO said that April contains the only risk of the RTO burning through all of its operating reserves and LMRs and still coming up about half a gigawatt short.