By William Opalka

Contrary to an earlier analysis, the closure of Entergy’s FitzPatrick nuclear plant will not leave New York short of generation in 2019, NYISO says.

In a report in February, the ISO had said the loss of the 882-MW plant on Lake Ontario would leave the state short at least 325 MW in three years. (See Fitzpatrick Closure Could Leave NY Generation Short.)

But an updated analysis, using a lower load forecast, found no cause for alarm. According to NYISO’s 2016 Gold Book, the coincident peak load expected for 2020 is 34,019 MW, a decrease of 843 MW from the ISO’s 2015 assessment.

“The most recent long-term forecast data shows a decline in both summer peak demand and annual energy usage,” NYISO spokesman David Flanagan said. “There are several contributing factors, including slower peak load growth in the downstate region; slower economic growth after 2020, based on Moody’s current outlook; and impacts of energy-efficiency initiatives, on-site generation and distributed resources.”

Both studies assumed 1,995 MW of generation will leave the resource base by 2020, including FitzPatrick and Exelon’s R.E. Ginna nuclear plant in 2017. (See FERC Accepts Ginna Settlement.)

Entergy announced late last year that it would close FitzPatrick because of low power prices. Based on the previous analysis, NYISO had initiated an expedited “gap solution” process in which the RTO solicits proposals from market participants outside of its usual two-year cycle to address an identified reliability need. Based on the new analysis, that process has been withdrawn.

Entergy has rebuffed New York’s efforts to keep the plant operating, including a proposed financial mechanism to subsidize carbon-free generation, as insufficient and insisted FitzPatrick will close in January. (See New Lifeline for FitzPatrick Nuclear Plant.)