By William Opalka

Winter reliability, the forward capacity market and infrastructure expansion have been the dominant themes in New England in recent years, and 2016 appears to be no different.

Record warmth this winter has kept power prices tame and new reliability incentive programs are expected to ensure adequate fuel supplies. Capacity prices may also moderate due to the addition of new generating resources.

Capacity Prices Expected to Drop

Forward Capacity Auction revenues have almost quadrupled over the past two auctions, from just more than $1 billion in 2013 to $3 billion in 2014 and $4 billion last year. About 1,000 MW of new generation entered the market for the 2018/19 capacity commitment period.

Morningstar says it expects 750 MW of dual-switching capability to be added for winter 2015/16 and 1,000 MW more by winter 2016/17. (See ISO-NE: Little Room for Error in Winter.)

A lingering controversy to be cleared up before the coming auction is how solar resources should be calculated. (See Generators Dispute ISO-NE on Solar Capacity.)

Moving Toward Renewable Energy

Massachusetts is expected to reconsider its net metering cap early this year after proposals to raise it got bogged down in the legislature in 2015. Utilities there are closing in on the 1,600-MW limit.

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island have embarked on a joint effort to procure clean energy more cost-effectively. Bids on prospective projects are due at the end of January.

The shift to renewable energy is progressing, as New England continues to lose its nuclear generation fleet. Entergy last year announced its 680-MW Pilgrim nuclear station will close no later than mid-2019, but the final date is expected to be announced by the middle of this year.

Key Milestones

Meanwhile, several proposals for new transmission lines and two natural gas pipelines reached key milestones last year, with more significant decisions on their fates due by the end of 2016.

Spectra Energy’s Algonquin Gas Transmission asked FERC in November for a pre-filing review of the proposed Access Northeast pipeline. The company expects to file a formal application in about a year and hopes to put the first phase of the project in service by November 2018. (See Algonquin Submits Pre-Filing Request for Access Northeast Pipeline.)

Also in November, developers of the Northeast Energy Direct pipeline through Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire filed certificates of need with FERC. The Kinder Morgan project would transport Marcellus shale gas from Pennsylvania. The developers hope for FERC approval in the fourth quarter. (See Northeast Energy Direct Files for FERC Certificate.)

Hydropower Plans Move Forward

Two competing proposals to import Canadian hydropower into the region also advanced last year.

Northern Pass Transmission received its draft environmental impact statement from the U.S. Energy Department. The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee is expected to rule by the end of the year on the 192-mile transmission line to move 1,090 MW of hydropower from Quebec. (See Committee Rules Northern Pass Application Complete.)

TDI New England’s Clean Power Link received its final environmental impact statement, which recommended approval of a presidential permit. The cross-border project would transmit 1,000 MW of Canadian hydropower under Lake Champlain.

The first phase of the project’s open season in December received expressions of interest from seven utilities on both sides of the border seeking 3,200 MW of capacity. Negotiation of the agreements will continue through this year.