PJM proposed changing the demand curve to be used in the 2015 Base Residual Auction while recommending the RTO continue using a combustion turbine as the model for determining the Cost of New Entry (CONE).

PJM’s proposed parameters adopt many of the recommendations from a study by The Brattle Group but differ on some issues, notably rejecting Brattle’s recommendation that CONE be determined based on an average of combustion turbine and combined cycle plant costs.

Brattle recommended that the Variable Resource Requirement Curve be changed so that the price cap (point a) for the system curve is set to a quantity equaling a loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) of one event in five years. Brattle said the change would provide stronger price signals when capacity resources are reduced or become more expensive and would not increase long-term average prices. The study also recommended stretching the VRR curve into a convex shape, making it steeper at lower reserve margins and flatter at higher reserve margins.

PJM said it favored the convex curve but would right-shift it by 1%, setting the price cap to 150% of net CONE at an unforced capacity (UCAP) level 0.2% below the installed reserve margin (IRM). PJM would use the same system curve for locational deliverability areas.

CONE Model

Brattle recommended using an average of combustion turbine and combined cycle costs as the reference technology for calculating Net CONE rather than the current reference of the GE Frame 7FA model combustion turbine.

Brattle said the change would acknowledge that combined cycle plants are the favored choice of merchant generators while avoiding a complete switch away from the current CT reference. It also recommended switching from the Handy Whitman “Other” Index to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ indices for wages, materials and turbines, which it said would provide more accurate escalation factors for CONE estimates.

PJM agreed with changing to the BLS index but is recommending continued use of the frame-model CT as the reference technology, saying it would provide “market stability and avoids perceived opportunistic switching to units with more favorable economics in any given year.” It noted that the New York ISO recently selected a CT as its reference technology.

PJM seeks to have final stakeholder input by Aug. 31, with changes submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by Oct. 1.

PJM Opposes Auction “Re-Run”

In a related matter, PJM asked FERC on May 9 to reject a request from the North Carolina Electric Membership Corp. to require the RTO to develop a mechanism for “unwinding” Base Residual Auction results and rerunning the auction. The scenario envisioned by NCEMC would occur if FERC ruled after the auction and reduced supply curve parameters below those filed by PJM.

“The hypothetical series of events that NCEMC envisions as warranting such a mechanism includes a Commission determination on how best to apply any final rulings on RPM parameter changes resulting from a periodic review,” PJM said in its response. “That opportunity for Commission intervention invalidates any suggestion that PJM’s current Tariff could lead to unjust or unreasonable results.”

NCEMC made the request in response to PJM’s April 4 proposal (ER14-1660) to move up by two months the deadlines for filing changes to auction parameters. Proposed parameter changes would be due May 15 instead of the current July 15. PJM said the changes will allow stakeholders more time to assess the parameters before the Base Residual Auction.