PJM officials have identified several changes they’d like to make before next winter, including winter start testing for generators and better controls on generation imports (see related story, PJM May Offer Firm Fuel Premium.) Executive Vice President for Operations Mike Kormos said Tuesday that the RTO also needs to improve its tracking of dual-fuel generators.
Based on their presentations at the FERC technical conference on winter 2013-14, here’s how MISO and the Northeast RTOs are planning to cope with winter 2014-15.
MISO Capacity
MISO officials had been warning as recently as last November that they faced a capacity shortfall of as much as 5 to 7 GW in 2016-17 due to the loss of coal-fired generation.
In January, however, officials said a survey of load-serving entities had cut the projected shortfall to 2 GW. Since then, MISO has reduced the projected shortfall further to 500 MW, Eric Callisto, chairman of the Wisconsin Public Service Commission and president of the Organization of MISO States, told the conference.
FERC Commissioner Philip Moeller noted that the projection assumed a 0.75% decrease in demand.
“The number that surprised me most was residential going up, but industrial down,” Moeller said. “But if it turns around, as we hope it does, then your assumptions start getting shaken real quickly.
“The ‘load is flat’ [assumption] gave us a little pause,” Callisto responded. “But I don’t think that it is too far from that.” He said MISO is seeking an independent verification of the load forecasts.
In addition to the capacity concerns, MISO said it is looking for ways to ensure demand response doesn’t distort price signals.
ISO-NE
ISO-NE says plant retirements will make next winter even more challenging unless temperatures are unusually mild.
Salem Harbor Power Station, a 720 MW coal- and oil-fired generating plant, and the 604 MW Vermont Yankee nuclear plant are scheduled to close this year, eliminating more than the amount of capacity procured through this year’s winter reliability program.
ISO-NE says its biggest change for next winter is the “Offer Flexibility” project, which will allow generators to update their offers in real-time to reflect changing fuel costs. The initiative, which takes effect in December, was approved by FERC in October (ER13-1877).
The ISO is also working with stakeholders to change uplift allocation and to increase incentives for load to bid into the day-ahead market — an effort to improve the accuracy of its day-ahead commitments.
ISO officials also expect benefits from a FERC order approving ISO rules requiring oil units to maintain fuel inventories. If that rule proves insufficient, the ISO says it will consider other measures, including incentives for dual fuel units.
The biggest potential improvement, however, won’t be any help for next winter.
“Just one more big [natural gas] pipe would help a lot,” said ISO New England’s Vice President of System Operations Peter Brandien. “Even if we make pipeline investments now, I’ll probably have to get through three or four more winters” without it.
NYISO
NYISO says it is considering market rule changes to address concerns over generator de-rates and problems obtaining fuel supplies.
It will also run planning scenarios to evaluate dual fuel inventory capability and fuel replacement rate capabilities under sustained cold weather conditions.
Improving operator awareness of their generators’ fuel status and pipeline system conditions is also on the ISO’s to-do list.
It also says it will “coordinate” with PJM and ISO-NE, if either RTO considers raising its $1,000/MWh bid cap. (See Stakeholders Preview Offer-Cap Debate.)
In October, the state Public Service Commission approved a contingency plan to respond to the potential closure of the 2,045 MW Indian Point nuclear power plant. The PSC’s order includes building and upgrading transmission and a plan to improve the energy efficiency of larger power users.
