NYISO expects that it will be able to operate reliably, according to the Winter 2024 Operating Study presented to the Systems Operations Advisory Subcommittee on Oct. 9. 

The ISO forecasts a 23,800-MW peak demand against 41,321 MW of total available capacity this winter, a 73.6% margin. This season’s load forecast is about 1.73% less than last winter’s expected 24,220 MW and about 7.53% lower than the all-time peak of 25,738 MW, set in January 2014. 

Peak load was only 22,754 MW last winter, which was very mild. It was only one of three times during that January when load went above 22,000 MW. (See NYISO Recounts Mild Winter.) 

The study notes that 935 MW of new generation have come online since last winter, spread across 13 projects. Most of these are solar farms, but they also include two wind farms over 100 MW in upstate New York and one battery facility outside of Buffalo. 

Four gas turbine plants, totaling 60 MW, were modeled as deactivated since winter 2023.