PJM set a record winter peak load of 145 GW around 8:15 a.m. Jan. 22, surpassing its previous seasonal peak of 143.7 GW, set in February 2015.
In an announcement of the record peak, Senior Vice President of Operations Mike Bryson said actions the RTO and its members took ahead of the cold snap got the system through strained conditions the night of Jan. 21 and the following morning. That includes maximum generation and low voltage alerts, a load management alert, a maintenance outage recall, conservative operations and a cold weather alert.
“We also worked closely with member companies to help resolve any cold-weather issues before the deep freeze set in,” Bryson said. “All of those steps served to help PJM and our members get ready for the cold weather. They have performed remarkably thus far, and I am grateful for their efforts.”
Exports added an additional 8 GW on top of the Jan. 22 peak and were as high as 9 GW during other times. The maximum generation alert put neighboring regions on alert that exports may need to be curtailed, PJM said. Bryson added that interchange is bidirectional, and PJM has relied on its neighbors in the past.
The preliminary load data PJM shared should be considered approximate figures calculated from raw telemetry data, PJM cautioned in the release.
“Verified metered loads are provided by electric distribution companies and represent the best-quality level of load within their zones, with adjustments to data occurring up to 90 days after the actual date,” it said.
High demand is expected to continue as long as temperatures remain unusually cold.
In an announcement of the alerts Jan. 21, PJM noted that the conservative operations declaration had been established in the wake of the December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott to provide operators with more flexibility in committing reserves or reducing power flows on certain facilities. It said PJM was working with gas generators to ensure their resources were dispatchable ahead of the onset of cold weather and the MLK Jr. Day holiday weekend.
The RTO also lauded the performance of its generation fleet during a cold weather alert issued between Jan. 8 and 10. PJM’s Kevin Hatch told the Operating Committee that generation owners started their units early to ensure they could be dispatched if needed and maintenance was rescheduled to ensure availability. Forced outages increased by 2 GW as the temperatures fell, which Hatch said was an improvement over the 7 GW increase in outages seen during the January 2024 Winter Storm Gerri. (See “System Performing Well During Cold Weather Advisory,” PJM OC Briefs: Jan. 9, 2025.)
Winter storms have become an increasing focus in PJM’s risk modeling, with the season holding 87.8% of the expected unserved energy (EUE) risk according to figures the RTO will present to the Markets and Reliability Committee on Jan. 23. Accelerating demand is noted in the preliminary 2025 Load Forecast, which estimates winter peaks will increase by 2.4% annually, up from 1.8% the year prior. Most of that increase is associated with large load additions (LLAs), such as data centers and chip manufacturing facilities, which make up 11.8% of the increase in winter loads between the 2024 and preliminary 2025 forecasts for the 2030/31 delivery year.
