Load Model Endorsed

The PJM Planning Committee unanimously endorsed the RTO’s recommendation to use a 13-year load model with data from 2002 to 2014 for the 2020 reserve requirement study (RRS), a change from the 10-year model (2003-2012) that has been used for the last several years. The load model, which was first presented at last month’s PC meeting, was passed by acclamation vote with no objections and one abstention. (See “Load Model Selection,” PJM PC/TEAC Briefs: July 7, 2020.)

Patricio Rocha Garrido of PJM’s resource adequacy department presented the committee with the results of the RTO’s load model selection process, which analyzed 105 load model candidates for the 2020 RRS for the 2024/25 delivery year. Rocha Garrido said the analysis was based on the 2020 PJM Load Forecast Report released in January.

The load model candidates were compared to PJM’s “coincident peak 1” (CP1) distribution analysis, Rocha Garrido said, which represents the highest load expected for the forecast year, using two separate approaches. The previously selected load model was not one of the top candidates this year, Rocha Garrido said, because of a new CP1 distribution analysis.

Rocha Garrido said the load model selection has to be done because the coincident peak distributions from the PJM load forecast cannot be used directly in the PRISM modeling software.

“We need to find a load model that is a good match for the PJM load forecast that we can then input into PRISM,” Rocha Garrido said.

Endorsement of Manual 14 Changes

Stakeholders also unanimously endorsed changes to Manual 14, including new sections detailing the requirements for surplus interconnection requests, a new definition of permissible technological advancements and a section outlining the evaluation procedure for surplus interconnection requests.

FERC required PJM to add language on how the RTO handles surplus interconnection service and incorporation of technological advancements in its interconnection process in its second Order 845 compliance filing. (See FERC OKs Most of PJM Order 845 Compliance Filing.)

Onyinye Caven of PJM presented the changes to Manuals 14A, 14B and 14G, which incorporate Tariff changes from the Order 845 compliance filing. Caven said there were “no substantive changes” from the first read that was conducted at the July PC meeting.

Caven said the changes related to the incorporation of technological advancements in the FERC order took effect on July 20, while the changes for surplus interconnection service will take effect in November.

Stakeholders will vote on final endorsement of the changes at the Markets and Reliability Committee meeting Aug. 20.

Interconnection Study Statistics

Susan McGill, manager of interconnection analysis for PJM, presented the interconnection study statistics for the first half of 2020, a new requirement for the RTO under FERC Order 845. McGill said one of the changes out of Order 845 was the collection of common interconnection metrics across the country.

McGill said PJM requested that FERC allow the RTO to calculate for a six-month period to align with its six-month queues instead of the quarterly reports used more commonly.

FERC established a performance rate standard of 25% or below for report delays, McGill said. Entities having two consecutive reporting periods greater than a 25% performance rate are required to issue a detailed filing to the commission explaining the delays and describing mitigation efforts.

The rate is calculated as the sum of the studies issued late and those backlogged, divided by the sum of backlogged studies and total studies issued.

McGill said PJM issued 321 feasibility studies in the first half of 2020. Of those, three were late and one was backlogged or “currently delayed.” The average completion time was 88 days, and the performance rate was 1.2%.

A total of 305 system impact studies were issued at the same time, McGill said, with 35 late and 53 backlogged. The average completion time was 187 days, and the performance rate was 24.6%.

Of 25 facilities studies issued in the first half of the year, all but one was late and 145 are currently backlogged. The average completion time is 747 days, and the performance rate is 99.4%.

McGill said PJM is working to fix the facilities studies delays. She said the RTO is adding contract support to perform studies and project facilitation, including eight new contract engineers by the end of the summer to work on interconnection reports and analysis.

“We’re going to talk internally to see what type of plans we have to address the facilities studies,” McGill said.

She said the total number of studies is increasing “drastically” in PJM. In 2018, 583 studies were due, compared to 1,434 studies due in this year.

The backlog of studies is decreasing at the same time, McGill said. After peaking in March 2019 at 353 studies, or about 28% of projects, the backlog has dropped to 207 studies, or 17% of projects.

“We’re making a lot of headway even though there’s still work for us to do,” McGill said.

COVID-19 Load Impacts

Weekday load peaks remain below normal because of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, although not as dramatically as in previous months, PJM’s Andrew Gledhill told the PC in a presentation.

Gledhill said the weekday load peaks have come in 6.8% less, or approximately 6,600 MW, than what would normally be anticipated since states started instituting lockdown measures around March 23. Gledhill said the peak reductions are slightly lower than what was announced at the July PC meeting, when the load peaks dropped 8.2% (about 7,700 MW).

The peak load impacts have softened because of several factors, Gledhill said, including the continued easing of stay-at-home restrictions among PJM states and the opening of businesses.

Gledhill also said ongoing social distancing efforts have pushed more load to the residential sector than normal. He said residential loads have a greater sensitivity to weather conditions.

The PJM zones that have seen the smallest load impacts tend to be those with proportionately more residential load.

The average energy reduction has been 7.1% since March 23, Gledhill said, compared to 8% announced at the July PC meeting. The impact on total electric consumption has continued to exceed the impact on the peak.

Gledhill emphasized that the COVID-19 impacts are estimates and not definitive data. “There’s no way to observe the actual impact of COVID-19, so we create estimates to understand the path of the pandemic and its impact on the grid,” he said.

Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee

Reliability Analysis Update

Aaron Berner of PJM provided an update on the 2020 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) analysis. The 2020 RTEP window for solutions to reliability violations under PJM, NERC, SERC Reliability, ReliabilityFirst and local transmission owner criteria that opened July 1 is scheduled to remain open until Aug. 31.

As of Aug. 4, 207 eligible flowgates had been posted in the window. About 290 eligible flowgates were originally posted, Berner said, but some were removed because of no-cost solutions that were found during the review process.

PJM also opened a second RTEP window for an end-of-life issue on the 500-kV Doubs-Goose Creek transmission line in the Dominion transmission zone. The 30-day RTEP window closed on July 31, Berner said, and PJM received one proposal for the project.

The project, which was originally presented at the June TEAC meeting, involved replacing steel lattice structures along the approximately 18-mile-long line. A third-party assessment determined that the towers have corroded to a point of instability and could result in failure and a collapse of the line if left unaddressed.