By Michael Kuser

MARLBOUROUGH, Mass. — ISO-NE is “in the final throes” of a stakeholder process to reach agreement with the New England Power Pool on a two-settlement market construct to integrate state-sponsored renewable energy resources into its wholesale market, CEO Gordon van Welie said last week.

Speaking at the Northeast Energy and Commerce Association’s Power Markets Conference on Nov. 14, van Welie said, “We plan to bring this to a vote at the upcoming NEPOOL [Participants Committee] meeting in December and then are going to file it [with FERC] in the December time frame.” He referred to the conference as a “quasi NEPOOL meeting,” considering that most attendees also participate in the organization’s stakeholder meetings.

As part of NEPOOL’s Integrating Markets and Public Policy (IMAPP) process begun in 2016, the RTO this year came up with a two-tier market concept called Competitive Auctions with Sponsored Policy Resources (CASPR). (See “CASPR May Exclude New Resources from Substitution Auction,” NEPOOL Markets Committee Briefs.)

Van Welie said CASPR “is creating the opportunity for existing resources that have capacity obligations and that wish to retire to trade out their obligation with incoming state-sponsored resources in a manner that doesn’t affect price formation in the primary auction.”

“As much as the states would like to see that their renewable contracts get automatic credit in the Forward Capacity Market, that would run counter to the other objective that we have (aside from reliability), which is to maintain price formation in the capacity market,” van Welie said. “CASPR will tend to accelerate the retirements of the marginal units, with significant payout opportunities for some of the older resources that wish to retire.”

Seeking Broad Consensus

Sebastian Lombardi, an attorney with Day Pitney who serves as counsel to NEPOOL, said, “We’re hoping for consensus because NEPOOL can’t have an affirmative institutional position without some broad agreement being reached. Broad agreement has not been reached yet.”

The NEPOOL Markets Committee considered a number of modifications to CASPR, he said.

“Although some of those proposals were close to getting broad support, at this stage none of them have reached the requisite support needed for NEPOOL approval, but sometimes three weeks is a lifetime in a stakeholder process,” Lombardi said. “Folks have been discussing this for a long time and we’re now getting to the endpoint and folks are going to have to make some hard decisions.”

Christopher Geissler, an economist at ISO-NE, said that while a number of stakeholder amendments did not pass at the Markets Committee, they could be voted on again by the Participants Committee. For context, he said, stakeholder support in this scenario means a 60% vote by the committee.

“We’ve made a number of changes to our design on the basis of stakeholder feedback and we continue to elicit and evaluate stakeholder ideas,” Geissler said. “However, while stakeholder support is important, we also feel that the design has to meet the objectives that we set out at the beginning of the process, so just because something receives stakeholder support doesn’t mean that it’s something the ISO will support. It also has to be good market design.”

Lombardi added that New England has a unique set of rules and governance arrangements whereby “if NEPOOL were to support something that was different from what the ISO wants to file, more than one proposal could be teed up to FERC on equal legal footing, which would provide FERC some optionality.”

Not So Fast

Brett Kruse, vice president of market design for Calpine, gave the NEPOOL talks a 30 to 40% chance of success and described some of the obstacles to reaching an agreement.

For example, the current renewable technology resource exemption is being challenged in federal court, with briefings due Jan. 12, 2018. Kruse said only a couple generators support the CASPR proposal as is, but more would support it if it was modified to protect price formation. He suggested that Calpine’s bid shading amendment might win ISO-NE support, particularly as it is already supported by the RTO’s internal and independent Market Monitors.

In addition, generators do not support an amendment proposed last week by the New England States Committee on Electricity for a 200-MW “backstop” allowing entry of sponsored resources around CASPR in perpetuity.

“I look at CASPR as an interim solution; I think that’s the way the ISO has talked about it,” Kruse said. “I’m not that positive on the long-term outlook for markets here in New England. Now will that be five years, 10 years? I can’t see it getting to 20 years. But even if we get something like this done, I think all that we’ll be able to do is slow down the convergence.”

Although Calpine is expanding its retail and commercial load-serving business in New England, the company is not looking to develop any new generation other than wind because of Massachusetts’ solicitation for thousands of megawatts of clean energy.

“The fundamental stuff shifted because we tend to take the state at their word,” Kruse said. “A goal is one thing, a mandate is another, a law is something else. A lot of people I talk to believe there’s no way they’re going to be able to build that much offshore wind — it’s crazy, it will cost way too much money. But when the legislature puts it in a law and the governor signs it, we believe. So we believe all that stuff’s going to come in that shifts all the underlying fundamentals.”

Regulatory Risk Perceptions

Todd Schatzki, vice president of Analysis Group, said the region’s desire to transition to a low-carbon future is driving the market. “But moving from desire to developing market designs and public policies that send effective price signals — we’re not there yet. Now we have the dilemma of legislators entering the markets through the back door,” he said.

Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association, which represents 80% of the region’s generating capacity, said regulatory risk is what he hears about most from his members.

“It’s the uncertainty of what’s next: What is the next large-scale procurement coming from a state?” Dolan said. “It’s those issues that then make investing in the tens of billions of dollars in assets that we have here very challenging. … I challenge you to find another sector of the economy that does not have guaranteed rate recovery and a rate of return investing any multiple close to that in new infrastructure in New England. We are the last major manufacturers in New England.”

Darren Matsugu, senior manager for market design and integration at the Independent Electricity System Operator in Ontario, said his ISO has only 8% natural gas-fired generation, compared to nearly 50% in New England. The Canadian province’s Legislative Assembly voted in 2003 to phase out coal, and the last coal plant there closed in 2014.

“The majority of our system’s installed capacity comes from very low marginal cost resources, whether it’s from hydro resources, from nuclear, or from solar and wind,” Matsugu said. “Along with the impact of lower natural gas prices, we’ve seen a significant decrease in the level of our wholesale energy prices. Often at the shoulder periods we fluctuate in the $0 to $10/MWh range.”

Beth Garza, director of ERCOT’s Independent Market Monitor and vice president at Potomac Economics, provided some perspective for the New Englanders struggling to achieve or accommodate the public policy goals set forth by the region’s six states.

“Unlike other areas that have centralized clean energy goals, Texas has not had that, but the markets are responding as if we did,” Garza said. “Texas has become a leader in wind generation simply because the zero-cost resource offers investors a good chance to make a profit.”