VALLEY FORGE, Pa. — The Planning Committee approved changes to Manual 19 allowing distributed solar generation to be included in the load forecast model.
The group was split in its decision, with 77 voting yes, 18 voting no and 89 members abstaining.
Steve Herling, PJM vice president of planning, said adding distributed solar will lower the load forecast.
PJM’s John Reynolds explained that to create a history of solar generation, planners used the generator attribute tracking system, or GATS.
“We know where they are, how big they are and how long they’ve been there,” Reynolds said of the panels, which Herling noted are the ones not participating in the PJM market.
“We’re not talking about big solar farms,” Herling said.
Planners leveraged that with information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to calculate where the sun was in the sky at various times and locations. Each panel was assigned to a weather station for information on cloud cover. Together, the data can estimate how much light was hitting the panels.
That calculation of solar output was aggregated to a zonal number and subtracted from the metered load, Reynolds said, noting that there is virtually no solar metered data available.
The second step was to forecast solar additions by state, for which PJM contracted IHS Energy. Planners took into consideration that some of the new solar likely would be replacing older equipment.
Planners want to break out solar generation because it is growing faster than other behind-the-meter generation and they want to get ahead of the trend.
“It’s going to be important in the future. We’re comfortable making the adjustment now with a procedure that might need refinement,” Herling said. “It might not have a big impact now, but in five years it may. We want a procedure in place now for when solar takes off.” (See “New Load Forecast Model, Related Manual Changes Adopted” in PJM Markets and Reliability Committee Briefs.)
Regardless of PSEG Wheel, 4 Reliability Projects Necessary
Even if Consolidated Edison of New York stops using the so-called PSEG wheel to deliver power into New York City, four baseline upgrades in northern New Jersey are still needed, PJM told Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee members. (See Developer Questions Need for PSE&G Projects Without ‘Wheel.’”)
The four proposals, part of the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan, include the Sewaren storm-hardening project, two sections of the Bergen-Linden Corridor and the Edison Rebuild.
The cost allocation of three of the projects would change significantly in the absence of the wheel.
Currently, Con Ed and East Coast Power each share about half of the cost of the Sewaren upgrade. The change would move all of the cost to ECP.
All affected transmission owners would pay for the two sections of the Bergen-Linden Corridor under the current scenario. Absent the wheel, Con Ed’s allocation would be moved to ECP and Hudson Transmission Partners.
Planners to Recommend ComEd’s Loretto-Wilton Center Project
PJM planners in February will recommend the Board of Managers approve a market efficiency project to relieve constraints on a 345-kV line from Loretto to Wilton Center, Ill.
Proposed by Commonwealth Edison, the $11.5 million project will mitigate sag limitations on the line and replace the station conductor at Wilton Center.
The projected in-service date is 2019.
PJM Continues to Study Effect of Clean Power Plan
PJM is updating its analysis of the economic and reliability impact of EPA’s Clean Power Plan and expects to coordinate its work with MISO.
The primary study years will be 2023 and 2026. PJM also will look at years 2028 and 2030, but with less detailed modeling.
It will examine five mass- and rate-based scenarios for regional as well as individual state compliance.
States have until September to submit their compliance plans or request extensions from EPA.
The work is expected to be complete by July 31, and the TEAC will receive an update at its February meeting.
PJM released a reliability analysis based on the draft CPP in August, following an economic analysis published in March. (See PJM Concerned About Lead Time on Transmission Needed for Wind.)
— Suzanne Herel