CARMEL, Ind. — Preliminary estimates show that MISO’s capacity requirements and available supply for the 2018/19 Planning Resource Auction will be in line with last year’s figures.

MISO has been planning for a systemwide coincident peak load of nearly 122 GW, a zonal coincident peak of 126 GW and a planning reserve margin requirement of 135 GW since the beginning of the year, Tim Bachus, capacity market administration analyst, told the Resource Adequacy Subcommittee on Feb. 7. (See MISO RASC Briefs: Little Change to Capacity Forecasts.)

While the forecast is — so far — steady year-over-year, RTO staff are still reviewing the data and won’t present final numbers until March, Bachus said.

The RTO’s zonal predictions show a capacity surplus similar to last year’s capacity auction, with all zones having enough installed capacity to meet local clearing requirements:

• Zone 1, covering Minnesota, the Dakotas and western Wisconsin, is forecast to have a 16.5-GW coincident peak forecast, an 18.4-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 15.7-GW local clearing requirement. The region has 25.2 GW of total installed capacity.
• Zone 2, covering eastern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, is predicted to have a 12.2-GW coincident peak, a 13.5-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 12.7-GW local clearing requirement. The region has 15.4 GW worth of total installed capacity.
• Zone 3 in Iowa and Zone 5 in Missouri (combined by MISO to keep pivotal suppliers’ information private) together have a 16.6-GW coincident peak forecast, with an 18.3-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 14.4-GW local clearing requirement. The zones have just under 27 GW of total installed capacity.
• Zone 4 in Illinois is expected to have a 9.1-GW coincident peak, a 10.1-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 5.2-GW local clearing requirement. The zone has just under 14 GW worth of total installed capacity.
• Zone 6, covering Indiana and Kentucky, so far has a 16.6-GW coincident peak forecast with an 18.6-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 12.5-GW local clearing requirement. The zone has 20.4 GW worth of total installed capacity.
• Zone 7 in Michigan’s Lower Peninsula is expected to peak at 19.9 GW, have a 22-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 20.7-GW local clearing requirement. The region has nearly 25 GW in total installed capacity.
• Zone 8 in Arkansas, Zone 9 in Louisiana and Texas and Zone 10 in Mississippi (also combined to protect utility information) are expected to have a nearly 31-GW coincident peak, a 34-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a 28.8-GW local clearing requirement. MISO South combined contains almost 42 GW in total installed capacity.

MISO will conduct its sixth annual PRA during the second week of April.

Scrapping Out-Year Import and Export Limit Estimates?

MISO is recommending that it discontinue its practice of making long-term predictions of capacity import and export limits, saying the results are too unreliable to be used in planning.

“Out-year results are volatile due to uncertainty around future generation dispatch. We don’t have a good picture of what these will be,” said MISO’s Matt Sutton.

MISO each year produces both near-term and long-term predictions for capacity import/export limits between zones to inform its loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) study.

After examining the out-year limits, MISO could not identify any processes that “rely upon these transfer values in resource planning,” Sutton said, adding that creating the forecasts no longer makes sense because the RTO cannot predict with certainty what resources will retire. Although MISO has been producing the long-term forecasts for about four years, no staff member at the meeting could say why they were proposed in the first place.

Customized Energy Solutions’ David Sapper disagreed with MISO’s view, saying there was value in seeing long-term predictions of decreases or increases.

“We might miss out,” agreed Consumers Energy’s Jeff Beattie.

WPPI Energy’s Steve Leovy also said he found value in the long-term predictions and never disparaged MISO for what he deemed to be expected volatility.

“We’ve been thinking about the value of this analysis and what it’s used for ever since a stakeholder comment last year on process improvements,” Sutton said.

CES’ Ted Kuhn asked if the volatility and uncertainty surrounding the process was “a stake in the heart” to any possible effort to conduct a three-year forward capacity market. Sutton said MISO would be forced to make such long-term predictions should it ever decide to adopt a three-year forward market design.

MISO will return to the RASC in March with a decision on whether to discontinue the long-term limit planning.

Possible End to LOLE Work Group

MISO is proposing to disband the Loss of Load Expectation Working Group (LOLEWG) and move its policy discussions into the RASC — but several stakeholders aren’t keen on the idea.

Laura Rauch, MISO resource adequacy manager, said the group has recently had light agendas, while its discussions frequently overlap those in the RASC.

“It’s about efficiency and making sure we have the right people in the room when we discuss policy,” she said.

The LOLEWG is responsible for reviewing and making recommendations about the methodology and assumptions that inform MISO’s annual LOLE study, which calculates planning reserve margin requirements for each load-serving entity.

American Electric Power’s Kent Feliks said he “cringed” at the thought of bringing the group’s technical discussions before a larger audience.

Other stakeholders asked about simply reducing its meetings. Rauch said MISO has already both reduced the number of meetings and shortened their duration.

Dynegy’s Mark Volpe said the LOLE study will face new challenges in the future, including accounting for external zones in the PRA and possible changes to MISO and PJM’s pseudo-tied generation rules. Other stakeholders said the LOLEWG also must work on adequately capturing and estimating MISO’s ever-evolving fuel mix.

“That’s new and unchartered waters,” Volpe said.

Rauch asked stakeholders to provide opinions on the fate of the LOLEWG by Feb. 20. The group is next scheduled to meet on March 6; the lone agenda item is discussion of MISO’s recommendation to sunset the group.

— Amanda Durish Cook