By Rich Heidorn Jr.

WASHINGTON — President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday directing EPA to begin the lengthy process of undoing its Clean Power Plan, a centerpiece of American efforts to battle climate change.

Trump signed the order following remarks in the wood paneled Map Room at EPA headquarters, surrounded by his top energy lieutenants and a group of coal miners. “You know what this says?” Trump asked the miners, pen in hand. “You’re going back to work.”

Trump’s remarks followed those of Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and Vice President Mike Pence, who noted the decline in coal mining jobs in recent years. “Those days are over,” Pence promised, “because the war on coal is over.”

“We’re no longer going to have regulatory assault on any given sector of our economy,” Pruitt said. “We’re not going to allow regulations here at the EPA to pick winners and losers.”

“Our nation can’t run on pixie dust and hope,” Zinke said.

The administration’s promises that coal mining jobs will return may be equally fanciful, however. Natural gas and renewable generation have become cheaper than coal-fired power in many regions, and the most productive mines are increasingly automated.

Years of Litigation to Come?

Trump’s bid to undo the CPP, meanwhile, could take years.

The Supreme Court stayed the rule in February 2016 pending a legal challenge by more than two dozen states that contended the rule overstepped EPA’s regulatory authority. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments in the case in September. (See Analysis: No Knock Out Blow for Clean Power Plan Foes in Court Arguments.)

Legal experts differ on whether the D.C. Circuit will dismiss the states’ challenge based on the Trump administration’s withdrawal of support for the CPP. Environmental groups immediately promised to fight the reversal of the plan.

Trump’s order will put EPA officials in the odd position of having to contradict the findings the agency cited when it issued the final rule in August 2015, which incorporated feedback from 4.3 million comments and months of meetings with state regulators, utilities and RTO officials. (See Revised Clean Power Plan Allows More Time, Sets Higher Targets.)

EPA also will have to overcome its 2009 finding that greenhouse gases endanger the public health and must be controlled.

Paris Agreement Threatened

Although the order does not indicate whether the U.S. will withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, eliminating the CPP would make it far more difficult for the nation to meet its obligations to cut its carbon emissions to 26% below 2005 levels by 2025. The CPP requires a 32% reduction in power plant CO₂ emissions from 2005 levels by 2030.

Economic consultancy company Rhodium Group estimates the U.S. would reduce carbon emissions by 21% below 2005 levels in 2025 under the CPP but that the reduction would flatten at 14% under Trump’s rollback.

The Paris Agreement is intended to prevent the planet’s temperature from increasing by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, which many experts say would lead to an irreversible future of rising oceans and extreme weather, leading to drought, flooding, and food and water shortages.

Other Provisions

The executive order also ends a moratorium on federal coal leasing and eliminates the requirement that federal officials consider the impact of climate change when making decisions.

Press Secretary Sean Spicer said the order directs federal agencies to review all rules “that put up roadblocks to domestic energy production and identify the ones that are not either mandated by law or actually contributing to the public good.”

It also orders a review of the standards for new generators, which effectively banned new coal plants without carbon sequestration. The levelized cost of a new coal generator with sequestration is about double the cost of new solar PV and wind, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Coal Jobs

EIA’s annual coal report last November found that U.S. coal production dropped 10.3% in 2015 to less than 900 million short tons, the lowest annual production level since 1986. Employment at U.S. coal mines dropped 12% in the year to less than 66,000, the lowest since the agency began collecting data in 1978.

More than 21 GW of coal generation retired in 2015 and 2016, largely as result of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, and EIA says another 14 GW is at risk of retirement by the end of 2028.

Energy economist Robert W. Godby, of the University of Wyoming, told The New York Times that Trump’s order could delay the closing of some endangered coal mines for as long as a decade. But because of increasing mechanization, “they’re not hiring people,” he said. “So even if we saw an increase in coal production, we could see a decrease in coal jobs.”

Economic Impact

Trump’s cabinet members portrayed the Obama administration’s environmental policies as a drag on the economy, with Perry decrying “poorly designed government policies, distorted markets” and a power grid whose reliability is being “tested because fuel diversity has been diminished in order to benefit one technology over the other.”

“The executive order will begin the process to unravel the red tape that’s been keeping investment on the sidelines and innovation stymied,” Perry said.

EPA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis of the CPP — which is not given credence by the agency’s critics — predicts the rule would produce economic and health benefits far exceeding its costs.

Critics say walking away from the Paris Agreement would hurt American leadership in clean energy technologies.

“The Trump administration is turning the nation’s back on the historic opportunity to build a clean energy future — a future that will modernize our energy system, offer consumers better value for their energy dollars and invest in state and local economies while taking the right steps to reduce climate pollution,” said Daniel Sosland, president of Acadia Center, which supports clean energy policies.

EIA predicts renewable electricity generation will grow 3.9% annually through 2030 without the CPP and 4.7% a year with it.

Regardless of what happens with the CPP, utilities, major corporations and many states are likely to continue their efforts at decarbonizing the generation mix.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and California Gov. Jerry Brown issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to exceed the CPP’s targets.

“Climate change is real and will not be wished away by rhetoric or denial,” they said. “Together, California and New York represent approximately 60 million people — nearly one-in-five Americans — and 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product. With or without Washington, we will work with our partners throughout the world to aggressively fight climate change and protect our future.”

Reaction

Other reaction to Trump’s order was, unsurprisingly, mixed.

Environmentalists said the order could damage climate change efforts while producing no benefits for the coal industry.

“The fact that major utilities in Ohio are planning to shut down a number of dirty coal-fired power plants throughout the state should be an indication that the market is moving on to less costly and cleaner resources,” said Shannon Fisk, managing attorney for the Earthjustice coal litigation program. “We will be advocating to maximize energy efficiency and renewable energy as the best options for replacing coal plants, and for providing a just economic transition for coal workers and communities.”

David Doniger, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Climate and Clean Air Program, tweeted: “Coal country needs a path to the economy of the future, not false hopes Trump won’t deliver.”

Paul Bailey, CEO of The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, called the CPP “the poster child for regulations that are unnecessarily expensive and have no meaningful environmental benefit.”

The American Public Power Association also supported the president’s action. “Public power has previously voiced its legal objection to the rule for requiring utilities to fundamentally alter the way they generate electricity. In some cases, utilities would have been forced to abandon functional power plants while continuing to pay them off,” the group said.