October 30, 2024

Blackstone, ArcLight to Purchase AEP Merchant Plants for $2.2B

By Ted Caddell

American Electric Power has agreed to shed more than 5,000 MW of merchant generation in Ohio and Indiana to private investment firms The Blackstone Group and ArcLight Capital Partners for about $2.17 billion, the company announced Wednesday.

The Wall Street Journal first reported the deal Tuesday, citing anonymous sources.

The plants are the 2,640-MW coal-fired General James M. Gavin Power Plant in Cheshire, Ohio; the 850-MW natural gas-fired Waterford Energy Center in southeastern Ohio; the 480-MW gas-fired Darby Electric Generating Station, 20 miles south of Columbus; and the 1,096-MW gas-fired Lawrenceburg Generating Station in Dearborn County, Ind., on the Ohio border.

AEP, Blackstone, Arclight
General James M. Gavin Power Plant Source: AEP

The company has said about 2,700 MW of merchant generation in Ohio not included in the reported deal are also being considered for sale. The remainder of AEP’s total of 31,000 MW of generation is owned by regulated utilities in 11 states.

Merchant generators have seen profit margins evaporate as the fracking boom has flooded the market with cheap natural gas, reducing wholesale market clearing prices.

“AEP’s long-term strategy has been to become a fully regulated, premium energy company focused on investment in infrastructure and the energy innovations that our customers want and need. This transaction advances that strategy and reduces some of the business risks associated with operating competitive generating assets,” AEP CEO Nick Akins said in a statement.

AEP hopes to close the sale, which is subject to approvals by FERC, state regulators and a federal antitrust review, in the first quarter of 2017.

The company said it would net approximately $1.2 billion in cash after taxes, debt repayment and transaction fees, as well as an expected after-tax gain of about $140 million.

The company confirmed in January 2015 that it had hired investment bank Goldman Sachs to shop almost 8,000 MW of merchant generation in Ohio and Indiana, which then-AEP Ohio President Pablo Vegas called “on the economic bubble” and struggling to remain profitable. (See AEP Considering Sale of 8,000 MW in Ohio, Indiana.)

AEP and FirstEnergy have sparked opposition from PJM and others with their bids to convince Ohio regulators to effectively move their merchant plants back into their regulated rate base. (See FirstEnergy Posts $1.1B Loss, Eyes Exit from Merchant Generation.)

aep, blackstone, arclight
AEP Generation Resources Assets by Fuel Type

AEP’s sale mirrors that of other utilities, including Duke Energy, which sold its retail business and its interest in 11 merchant plants in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Illinois to Dynegy for $2.8 billion in 2015.

PPL spun off its merchant generation — along with that of Riverstone Holdings — to create publicly traded Talen Energy in 2015. Riverstone announced in June it had agreed to purchase the company and take it private.

Exelon also has looked to shift its exposure away from market prices to regulated assets while also threatening to close struggling merchant nuclear plants.

So what’s private equity’s rationale for buying merchant plants that utilities no longer want?

“The private-equity firms’ multiyear investment horizon gives them an opportunity to bet on a rebound in the wholesale power market,” the Journal said.

Private equity giant Blackstone‘s recent investments have included transmission development (GridLiance), oil and gas (Permian basin shale properties) and LNG (Cheniere Energy Partners).

ArcLight, a smaller fund, focuses on “energy infrastructure assets with substantial growth potential, significant current income and meaningful downside protection.”

It says it has spent $16.8 billion in 99 transactions since its founding in 2001, with “62 exits across diverse market cycles.”

Blackstone and ArcLight have owned more than 38,000 MW of generation globally, AEP said, including operations in PJM, NYISO and ERCOT.

Md. Balks at Proposed Emission Cuts as RGGI States Ponder Future

By William Opalka and Rory Sweeney

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative reported another lackluster carbon allowance auction last week, bolstering calls by Massachusetts and others for more aggressive cuts in the compact’s emission caps.

But as the program conducts its triennial review of how it should operate in 2020 and beyond, Maryland is raising the threat it could pull out, as New Jersey did in 2011.

RGGI reported it sold 14.9 million CO2 allowances at $4.54 each Sept. 7, nearly identical to the prices of the second auction this year of $4.53 and more than 70 cents lower than six months ago.

From 2.5% to 5%?

In 2014, RGGI set an emissions cap of 91 million tons that declines by 2.5% annually to 78.2 million tons by 2020. Environmental advocates and Massachusetts officials have called for doubling the rate of decrease to 5% annually. But Maryland’s top environmental regulator says that is too strict for his state.

Most RGGI members are part of ISO-NE, so any financial burdens created by the pact’s restrictions affect all of their power generators — and subsequently the prices they offer to supply power — equally.

Power plants in Maryland and Delaware, however, sell into the PJM markets and compete against generators that aren’t impacted by the same restrictions in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky. More aggressive emissions cuts could price power producers in Maryland, where 22% of its production comes from coal, out of the market, said Ben Grumbles, secretary of the Maryland Department of the Environment.

rggi emissions cuts
Maryland Environment Secretary Ben Grumbles, Gov. Larry Hogan and Natural Resources Secretary Mark Belton visit Assateague State Park on Earth Day in April. Photo Source: Maryland Department of the Environment

Grumbles was quoted by The Boston Globe last month saying “unacceptable” cuts may drive Maryland out of the agreement. New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie did just that in 2011, saying it was expensive and ineffective.

In an interview last week with S&P Global Market Intelligence, Grumbles called for “a renewed RGGI … that provides a stringent emissions cap without creating unfair competition for Maryland or other RGGI states.”

“Economic competitiveness and the cost of energy to local ratepayers must be considered in our midpoint review of RGGI, in addition to the fundamental objective of reducing greenhouse gases and increasing resiliency,” Grumbles said.

Grumbles was appointed by Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who angered environmentalists in the mostly Democratic state in May when he vetoed a bill that would have raised Maryland’s renewable portfolio standard to 25% by 2020. The current RPS goal is 20% by 2022.

“It’s not clear exactly what (or who) will drive the state’s position” on RGGI, The Baltimore Sun said in an editorial last week, adding that Hogan’s veto “has already cast doubt about the administration’s commitment to improving air quality and fighting climate change.”

The Sun acknowledged that tougher caps could leave Maryland ratepayers “paying more for cleaner power but still suffering downwind power plant pollution” from its PJM neighbors.

The solution? “Get more states to join RGGI and elect a president who supports the Clean Power Plan,” the Sun said.

Unanimous Vote

The New England Power Pool is in the midst of a stakeholder process intended to further align the region’s wholesale markets with states’ clean energy policy goals. The initiative could result in Tariff changes that ISO-NE would present to FERC. (See Q&A: NEPOOL Chair on Redesigning Market Rules for Low-Carbon Future.)

Changing RGGI’s caps would require a unanimous vote of the nine states, and Maryland and Delaware aren’t the only ones that could balk.

Maine Gov. Paul LePage is a climate change skeptic, and Carlisle McLean, a LePage appointee to the state Public Utilities Commission, told the Globe “the state is looking hard at this continued RGGI commitment.”

Thanks in large part to the falling price of natural gas, RGGI has exceeded its emissions goals, while electric rates have dropped. The allowance sales have raised almost $2.6 billion, which the states have invested in energy efficiency, renewable energy, bill assistance and greenhouse gas abatement.

“RGGI emissions through the first half of 2016 were the lowest they have been in the program’s history, and annual emissions have been below the RGGI cap level in each of the program’s seven years to date,” Acadia Center President Daniel Sosland said. “This shows that emissions are falling quickly and even more cost-effectively than expected and provides the foundation on which RGGI states can feel confident going forward to set more ambitious emission targets.”

Acadia said low trading volume and stable prices could be “an inflection point” as the market awaits the results of the program review now underway.

‘Oversupplied’ Market

“An oversupplied market and low RGGI prices limited the program’s impact in its early years,” said Jordan Stutt, a policy analyst with Acadia. “Failing to strengthen RGGI through the program review could result in similarly low prices, depriving the region of funding for clean energy programs and sending inadequate market signals to clean up the region’s power sector.”

RGGI’s caps aren’t the only driver of its auction prices, which also have been buffeted by speculation over the fate of EPA’s Clean Power Plan.

From the first auction following the release of the draft CPP in June 2014 to Auction 30 in December 2015, RGGI allowance prices increased 49%. In the first auction after the Supreme Court’s stay of the CPP in February, prices dropped 30%.

rggi emission cuts

“These dramatic swings in prices occurred in the absence of material changes in RGGI policy or the region’s fundamental energy market trends,” Acadia noted.

Katie Dykes, deputy commissioner for energy at the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and chair of the RGGI board of directors, declined to discuss specific proposals from her state.

“RGGI’s flexibility and adaptability have enabled the program to be successful across a diverse region. The program review process is based on consensus, and Connecticut is committed to reaching an outcome that works for all nine RGGI states’ unique goals and priorities,” she said in a statement.

Patrick Woodcock, director of LePage’s Energy Office, also emphasized consensus building and said it’s too soon to discuss how the review might influence other states’ participation. “We’re exploring program review changes and doing economic modeling to determine how these will impact the market,” he said.

Western Utility Execs Bullish on EIM, Wary of Deeper Integration

By Robert Mullin

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Western utility leaders at CAISO’s annual stakeholder event said they welcome the operational benefits and increased regional cooperation of the Energy Imbalance Market but remain wary of organizing the wider West under a CAISO-run RTO.

At a Sept. 7 panel discussion on market regionalization at the CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, executives at utilities planning to join the EIM cited its main advantage: the improved integration of intermittent renewable resources.

caiso eim
Grow © RTO Insider

“We were blessed with 1,000 MW of PURPA [wind projects],” said Lisa Grow, senior vice president of operations at Idaho Power, which will become the sixth company to join the EIM when it makes the move in April 2018. “We’re unable to integrate that” by itself, she said.

The utility and the state’s regulators have complained that its service territory has been flooded with excess generation by large but “disaggregated” wind farms developed under the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, which was enacted in 1978 to encourage the growth of small-scale, independent generation projects. (See FERC Conference Debates PURPA Costs, Purchase Obligations.)

With a minimum system load of about 1,100 MW, Idaho Power serves most of the state’s electricity users. The utility currently derives about half of its energy from hydroelectric projects.

Grow said her company expects to realize only a modest financial benefit from membership. But the company’s hydro-rich portfolio translates into a high degree of ramping capability, which should be an asset for the utility as it seeks to offload its surpluses into an EIM. Flexible and carbon-free generation will become increasingly valuable as Western states increase their renewable portfolio standards and California looks to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions.

‘Big Hurdle’

In neighboring Oregon, Portland General Electric, which is scheduled to join the EIM next year, sees the market as a cost-effective way to integrate renewables. A law passed earlier this year will require the utility to achieve a 50% RPS by 2040.

Pope © RTO Insider
Pope © RTO Insider

“That is a big hurdle,” said Maria Pope, PGE’s senior vice president of power supply and operations and resource strategy. “My sense is that, irrespective of the market benefit, the advancements in the technology and processes have value in themselves.”

Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS), which initially protested PacifiCorp’s decision to join the EIM, is likely to join itself after a recently completed benefits study, CEO Doug Hunter said.

A publicly run nonprofit that provides wholesale electricity to 45 community-owned utilities in seven states, UAMPS owns generation and transmission assets in Utah and sits “right in the gunsights” of the EIM, Hunter said.

“We’re the definition of regionalism. … We really see it as a marketplace that we can enter — and our customers can benefit from this,” Hunter said, adding that the outcome of the EIM’s implementation “wasn’t as dire as we thought it would be.”

California Public Utilities Commissioner Mike Florio, who moderated the panel, turned the discussion to the Northwest’s largest public entity — the Bonneville Power Administration.

caiso eim
Florio © RTO Insider

“Is it ever in the cards for Bonneville to join, or would that take an act of Congress?” Florio asked.

“Serving our preference customers is our priority,” said Elliot Mainzer, Bonneville’s administrator and CEO. “But having a market for surpluses would be important.”

Bonneville’s decision to join the EIM “will depend on how the governance functions,” Mainzer said. “But at this point, no decision on that.”

The market’s five-member governing body, which represents various stakeholder sectors, was selected in June and met for the first time earlier this month. (See EIM Governing Body Convenes First Meeting, Selects Leadership.)

Mainzer emphasized the importance of his agency to staying “constructively engaged” with the EIM, especially because PacifiCorp’s participation requires the use of Bonneville’s transmission system.

“So far, it’s worked effectively,” Mainzer said. “Managing at those seams, staying communicative … really matters.”

No ‘Gateway Drug’

Florio called the prospect of full membership in CAISO a “hot potato” for many utilities. He sought panelists’ thoughts on the challenges to regionalization.

“Early on, when talking with [Arizona regulators] about [joining the EIM], there was a lot of pessimism,” Arizona Public Service COO Mark Schiavoni said. CAISO CEO Steve Berberich and “I had to assure that this wasn’t some kind of gateway drug to something broader.”

“I think the concept of exporting California policy to the intermountain West was one of the biggest issues — a big part of the reluctance on the part of politicians,” Hunter said.

For UAMPS, the concerns come down to economics — specifically, the allocation of costs under a Western RTO.

“We could quadruple our transmission access charge” under an RTO, Hunter said. “We just don’t see the benefit.” He added that UAMPS was encouraged by California’s decision to slow down the ISO’s expansion efforts to “get a handle” on some of the more controversial issues. (See Gov. Brown Reaffirms Commitment to Expanded CAISO.)

Schiavano © RTO Insider
Schiavoni © RTO Insider

Schiavoni said the focus of regionalization must expand to include the needs of other Western states. “Until there’s dialogue and conversation that goes beyond California, I just don’t see movement toward that broader market,” he said.

“If I were outside California, I’d want to see California give up some control,” said Pat Hogan, senior vice president of transmission and distribution at Pacific Gas and Electric.

Citing the dependencies of the physics, politics and economics of the grid, Mainzer said he was concerned about “spreading volatility over a broader footprint.”

“You have to be able to trust each other to share the optimization,” Mainzer said. “If you can’t get beyond the governance … you’re bound to get the market design wrong.”

“I think it’s important not to underappreciate where we are now,” Pope said. “There’s a lot of work to be done.” The EIM is “extremely well-constructed,” she said, adding that she liked the ability of participants to enter and exit the market at will. “I would hate to jump into something that would add complexity without having a benefit.”

Comparative Approach

Hunter told the panel there are benefits to having a competitor to a CAISO-run RTO.

caiso eim
Hunter © RTO Insider

“We’re lucky because right now we have a proposal to the east of us that will allow us to do a comparative approach,” said Hunter, referring to a competing effort by the Mountain West Transmission Group to create its own RTO in the inland West. (See Mountain West RTO Could Pose Competition for CAISO.)

Hunter noted that Mountain West had received proposals from multiple RTOs to operate the potential market — including CAISO and PJM.

“In my neck of the woods, PJM is like the Antichrist,” Hunter said.

“If PJM is the Antichrist, what is the California ISO?” Hogan asked.

“Well, it’s the potential Good Witch of the West,” Hunter replied.

State Briefs

Gov. Brown Signs Sweeping Energy Bill

caiso, jerry brown, western rto
Brown

Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill setting a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, which means that residents can expect to feel more of what Brown has called the “coercive power of government.” Businesses will likely face more restrictive rules, and taxpayer and ratepayer money will be needed to subsidize cleaner technologies.

“California is doing something that no other state has done,” Brown said.

Business will be encouraged to cut emissions, including adopting better fuel economy for trucking companies to meet new highway-related standards, and farmers will need to cut methane emissions. Another bill signed last week will expand the state’s cap-and-trade system, which Brown is counting on to provide more emissions reductions.

More: Los Angeles Times

MARYLAND

Worcester County Approves 2 Utility-Scale Solar Projects

The Worcester County Commissioners unanimously approved two utility-scale solar projects totaling 35 MW in Berlin and Snow Hill, west of Ocean City. Longview Solar, the company developing the solar farms, has already received approval from the Public Service Commission and needed the county’s approval to go forward.

Longview is developing the projects even though the commissioners earlier denied tax abatements for the facilities. The 20-MW Heron Project will have 85,670 solar panels. A 15-MW project, with 63,320 panels, will be built near Snow Hill.

Community members were generally supportive at a public hearing on the projects, though several area residents expressed concern about the effect the facilities will have on the value of their properties.

More: The Dispatch; Ocean City Today

MASSACHUSETTS

Offshore Developers to Use Terminal

Three offshore wind developers will use the state’s $113 million New Bedford Marine Commerce Terminal port as a staging area for wind farm construction.

Deepwater Wind, OffshoreMW and DONG Energy signed the agreement, which calls for a $5.7 million annual payment to the state’s Clean Energy Center. All three have secured leasing rights to federal waters off the state’s coast.

Negotiations have gone on for months. The announcement comes a month after Gov. Charlie Baker signed legislation that requires utilities to secure 1,600 MW of wind energy in about a decade.

More: The Boston Globe

MICHIGAN

New DEQ Director Addresses Concerns over Appointment

Grether
Grether

Gov. Rick Snyder’s appointment to director of the Department of Environmental Quality, former BP lobbyist Heidi Grether, told the Senate Natural Resources Committee last week that she should be defined by more than her previous employment.

During a confirmation hearing, Grether tried to allay concerns over her controversial credentials. She told a packed hearing that she was the “product of much more than my past two or three jobs.”

The committee declined to vote at the hearing. Under state law, Grether is considered the director unless the Senate votes to reject the appointment. They have 60 session days after her Aug. 1 appointment to decide.

More: MLive; Detroit Free Press

Upper Peninsula Rates 2nd Highest in US

upperpeninsulapowruppcoCustomers of Upper Peninsula Power Company (UPPCO) pay an average 23 cents to 25 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity, a rate that’s 67% higher than the state average, and higher than any average rate in the country, outside Hawaii.

UPPCO is currently asking the Public Service Commission for a 6 to 12% rate increase.

Officials from the commission and UPPCO say the utility’s rates are high because of costs associated with serving 54,000 customers that are thinly distributed over 4,460 square miles. “The region is sparsely populated, much of it densely forested, with weather often adding to the challenge of providing energy to this region,” CEO Keith Moyle said.

More: Detroit Free Press

MISSOURI

PSC Approves Empire, Liberty Utilities Merger

empiredistrict(empire)The Public Service Commission last week unanimously approved the proposed $2.4 billion merger between Empire District Electric and Liberty Utilities, a subsidiary of Canada-based Algonquin Power & Utilities. Hearings over the merger were canceled after negotiations between the companies and intervening parties led to a settlement.

The merger still requires approval from regulators in Kansas and Arkansas. Oklahoma regulators and FERC have already given their go-ahead. The companies expect to close the deal in the first quarter of 2017.

More: The Joplin Globe

NEW JERSEY

NJ Natural Gas Agrees to Slash Rate Request

njnatgasnjngNew Jersey Natural Gas has agreed to cut its rate-increase request from 24% to 7.4% after it received a storm of disapproval from residents and business owners.

Under a settlement reached with Board of Public Utilities staff and consumer advocates, a typical customer’s monthly bill will go up by about $7.11. The original rate filing would have boosted bills by $21.69/month. “We are confident the ultimate outcome will serve the best interests of our customers and company,” CEO Laurence M. Downes said.

The settlement requires formal approval by the BPU.

More: NJ.com

NORTH CAROLINA

Duke Coal Ash Issue Big in Governor’s Race

Cooper
Cooper

The controversy over whether Gov. Pat McCrory pressured a state toxicologist to retract drinking water warnings for residents living near Duke Energy coal ash storage sites has become a major issue in the governor’s re-election battle.

State Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is running against McCrory in November’s election, used the issue to frame a television ad harshly critical of McCrory and his administration. The ad included Dr. Megan Davies, who resigned as state epidemiologist in protest after the administration accused one of her subordinates of lying when he testified under oath that he was pressured to downplay the risks of drinking water near coal ash sites.

McCrory, however, struck back with his own ad, accusing Cooper of failing to oversee the entire coal ash issue while occupying the state’s highest law enforcement position and criticizing him for accepting more than $325,000 in campaign contributions from the energy industry.

More: The News & Observer

OHIO

OCC Asks Supreme Court to Deny FirstEnergy Rate Request

ohioconsumerscounselgovThe Consumers’ Counsel is challenging FirstEnergy’s latest attempt to obtain subsidies to keep two of its older generating stations open. The consumer advocate told the state Supreme Court that the subsidies “violate the law and this court’s recent decisions that protected customers.”

The suit, filed last week by the OCC and the Northwest Ohio Aggregation Coalition, is the latest challenge to FirstEnergy’s attempts to get guaranteed rates for the W.H. Sammis coal-fired plant and the Davis-Besse nuclear generating station.

FERC quashed FirstEnergy’s first attempt at subsidies, which had been approved by the Public Utilities Commission. The company submitted a revised plan to PUCO, which the commission provisionally approved.

More: The Plain Dealer

MISO TOs Seek More Time for Order 1000 Challenge

By Amanda Durish Cook

A group of MISO transmission owners has petitioned Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan for more time to draft a petition asking the court to reinstate incumbents’ right of first refusal (ROFR) on RTO grid projects.

The TOs, including Ameren, Indianapolis Power and Light, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. and Otter Tail Power, want until Oct. 14 to complete their petition for a writ of certiorari. The TOs are seeking to overturn a Court of Appeals decision that denied the companies’ request to void FERC Order 1000’s provisions that introduced competition into transmission development (ER13-187, et al.).

In April, the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the TOs’ challenge, which contended FERC failed to apply the Mobile-Sierra doctrine, which presumes rates negotiated by private parties are reasonable (14‐2153). The group also claims FERC didn’t uncover any evidence that the previous Tariff provisions “seriously harm[ed] the public interest.”

ferc order 1000 miso
FERC held a technical conference on Order 1000 in July.

Seventh Circuit Judge Richard Posner said the TOs failed to show that maintaining the ROFR was in the public interest. He also said it was expected for MISO members to take issue with the removal of the provision that opens them to third-party competition.

“No one likes to be competed against,” Posner wrote. “So naturally, members of MISO in areas in need of additional facilities oppose Order 1000. They want to retain their right of first refusal — they don’t want to have to bid down the prices at which they will build new facilities in order to remain competitive.”

In the same order, Posner also denied a request by transmission developer LS Power, which said ROFRs should be dropped for even baseline reliability projects (14‐2533, 15‐1316).

LS Power received an extension for its own certiorari petition on Aug. 19. The TOs say granting their request for more time will not hold up the proceedings, as LS Power’s extension is already in effect.

In June, FERC held a technical conference to consider suggested improvements to Order 1000. The comment period in the docket, originally slated to end Sept. 2, has been extended to Oct. 3 (AD16-18). (See FERC Calls for Post-Conference Comments on Order 1000.)

Distributed Resources to Reshape Industry, Symposium Panelists Say

By Robert Mullin

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — While regionalization occupied center stage during the first day of CAISO’s annual Stakeholder Symposium, the second day’s panels took on an issue poised to be equally transformative for California’s electricity sector: the increased adoption of distributed energy resources.

“To give you a sense of the scale, in addition to over 16,000 MW of utility-grade renewables attached to the system, we now have 4,500 MW of distributed solar,” said Ashutosh Bhagwat, a member of the CAISO Board of Governors.

Rooftop solar capacity within the ISO’s balancing authority area has increased by 43% over the past five years, Bhagwat noted. “That means we’re most certainly going to hit 10,000 MW quite soon.”

Bhagwat said the ISO considers the rise of distributed generation to be an opportunity for enhancing its system, rather than a physical liability. Distributed resources have the potential to contribute to grid management, he said, but the ISO must overcome barriers to getting there.

“We have to figure out how to dispatch [DER] in a way that works,” he said.

distributed energy resources
Akiba (left) and Nichols (right) © RTO Insider

Ron Nichols, president of Southern California Edison, said his company “is very strongly embracing the growth of distributed energy resources on our system. We’re dealing with it in an extraordinarily large way. In scale, it’s phenomenal.”

22,000 Changes

Among the questions the company is addressing: “What’s the pace of [DER] growth going to be? What are going to be the compensation models associated with that [growth]? What kinds of transactions are we going to deal with and how are we going to allocate costs with respect to that?”

The utility has made 22,000 short- and long-term changes to its distribution system to maintain reliability while incorporating DER.

“You don’t make 22,000 changes to the ISO transmission system — or even across” the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Nichols said.

Lorenzo Kristov, principal of market infrastructure and policy at CAISO, said he started working on DER about four years ago when he led an initiative to expand the ability of distributed resources to participate in the ISO market.

distributed energy resources
Kristov (left) and Wellinghoff (right) © RTO Insider

Kristov said CAISO asked to him to imagine having as many as 100,000 “tiny” resources participating in the ISO’s market optimization — the platform responsible for scheduling and dispatching resources.

“Is that really the way that it’s supposed to be?” Kristov said. “My answer at that point was ‘maybe, but maybe not.’”

Among Kristov’s conclusions: Expanded DER will require distribution utilities to reconsider how they operate — while also forcing CAISO to rethink how it interacts with those utilities, he said.

Kristov said he can envision the development of a distributed service operator (DSO) “that looks pretty much like today’s distribution company. But then you could go to the very opposite extreme, where the DSO really takes on” the functions of another balancing authority.

Pilot Program

“These consumer resources can in fact be a reliable resource that can provide reliable services into the market,” said former FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff, now chief policy officer at SolarCity. “I think the future is at the area of the distribution utility.”

SolarCity is participating in a pilot program with Pacific Gas and Electric in which 150 homes with rooftop solar are installing the equipment and software controls necessary for the utility to provide ancillary services to the ISO, Wellinghoff noted.

“That’s one thing we need to remember … customers are an important part of this,” said Lorraine Akiba, a member of Public Utilities Commission of Hawaii, which has mandated a 100% renewable portfolio standard by 2045. “Customers have choices. We have to enable and empower them to be part of the grid.”

Federal-State Jurisdiction

Another question is which agencies will have jurisdiction over those resources in the wholesale market. While activities at the distribution level typically fall under the control of state regulators, FERC has the final say on matters related to markets and rules affecting the transmission system.

“These technologies are not only transforming the grid, but they are starting to erode the traditional barriers — the regulatory barriers — that separate the distribution system from the transmission system, and therefore [federal and state regulators] touch on each other in ways we never have before,” said Michael Picker, president of the California Public Utilities Commission.

distributed energy resources
Left to right: Berberich, Picker, Bay © RTO Insider

FERC Chairman Norman Bay said jurisdictional questions can be resolved under the Federal Power Act. “If the resources are aggregated and have submitted a [CAISO Distributed Energy Resource Provider] filing — so it’s more than half a megawatt and can follow dispatch instructions — [they] can participate in wholesale markets,” Bay said.

During one panel, CAISO CEO Steve Berberich posed to Bay a scenario in which a FERC-jurisdictional DER aggregator violated an RTO’s market rules using behind-the-meter resources subject to state regulatory oversight.

“How would you bridge that gap?” Berberich asked.

FERC’s approach to enabling demand response to participate in wholesale markets could provide “a template for the way we might think about other distributed resources,” Bay responded. He noted that there have been cases in which FERC has pursued enforcement actions against DR providers for improperly verifying load reductions.

“Under our anti-manipulation authority, we have to show the conduct has a nexus with the wholesale markets,” Bay said.

In response to a question about who should be responsible for monitoring the market activities of DER aggregators, Bay pointed out that marketing monitoring presently occurs at the federal, state and RTO/ISO levels.

“There are many sources of information, and it’s very important that we use all those sources of information to make sure the market has integrity,” he said.

Bay also offered a note of support to California’s efforts to provide DER with access to the ISO’s market.

“I actually think a lot of good work is happening in California and CAISO, and I want to commend both the CPUC and CAISO for the work that you’re doing to establish market rules that allow DER and energy storage to participate in wholesale markets,” Bay said. (See FERC OKs CAISO Energy Storage Rules.)

NRECA Continues its Fight for the Little Guy

By Tom Kleckner

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — During the Great Depression, it was the newly formed electric cooperatives that electrified much of the rural U.S. Now, the co-ops want to replicate that accomplishment by bringing their customers broadband Internet access.

“There are parallels between broadband today and the lack of electricity 80 years ago,” Mel Coleman, CEO of North Arkansas Electric Cooperative and president of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association’s board of directors, said during a speech at the Clinton School of Public Service on Sept. 6.

“Reliable, high-speed Internet access is critical for attracting new employers to small communities,” Coleman said. “What employer would want to set up in a community where you’re getting 3 or 5 or 10 megabits a second? [Rural communities] are in desperate need of an economic boost. Think what it could do for education, health care and, yes, for all the Amazon shoppers.”

nreca
Coleman © RTO Insider

Coleman said his and two other Arkansas co-ops are “hanging fiber as we speak,” as are other electric cooperatives across the country. He hopes to have his first connected members in January.

Meanwhile NRECA, the co-op’s trade association based in D.C., is seeking federal financing help to “ensure that all Americans have access to affordable broadband services,” Coleman said.

It’s another way co-ops are serving the little guy, as they have been since the 1930s, said Coleman, who also used his speech to tell the co-ops’ history and to make their case against EPA’s Clean Power Plan.

“The history of the co-op movement demonstrates good things can happen when the government partners with private enterprise to solve big problems,” he said. “The American spirit of electric co-ops is not just a relic of the Depression era. It lives and breathes across rural America today.”

NRECA represents more than 900 cooperatives in 47 states. These nonprofits serve 42 million customers and operate or maintain more than half the nation’s grid. The largest is in Texas (Pedernales Electric Cooperative, with 260,000 members), and the smallest is in Alaska (INN Electric Cooperative, with 285 members).

Earlier this summer, NRECA hired former seven-term U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) as CEO to help represent its interests. In addition to lobbying for broadband funding and fighting the CPP, NRECA also is seeking relief from mandatory capacity markets. (See Little Love for PJM in Capacity Market Debate.)

‘Darkness’

As Coleman recounted the electric co-op’s beginnings, he said investor-owned utilities were reluctant to extend their lines into sparsely populated rural areas. As a result, he said, “A vast majority of rural America sat in darkness.”

“The 1920s were roaring for some people, but not for American farms. Less than 3% of farmers had electric power,” Coleman said. “You can imagine milking cows in a wooden barn, with straw floor, and a kerosene lamp waiting to be kicked over.”

At the height of the Great Depression in 1935, President Franklin Roosevelt secured $100 million for rural electrification as a part of a $5 billion public works bill. The next year, Congress passed the Rural Electrification Act (REA), which used cash incentives as a carrot to the IOUs, Coleman said.

“Their grand plan consisted of taking money and hooking up a few customers in easy-to-serve places … it was clear the power companies had no interest in serving rural areas.”

Coleman said it wasn’t until the first REA loans were extended to the handful of co-ops at the time that rural electrification became a reality. The first REA-financed poles were set in Ohio in November 1935, and the first REA-produced power line went into service the following year in Marfa, Texas. By 1936, 140 electric co-ops were in operation in 26 states and by 1940, they were serving more than a million customers.

NRECA was formed in 1942, and it quickly began taking on the big industry interests who scoffed at the little co-ops.

“One of the NRECA’s first tasks was to disprove the allegations made by the investor-owned utilities,” Coleman said. “We were able to show that electrifying farms actually played a viable role in the war effort, by those farms producing more food than farms could without electricity.”

When World War II ended, half of America’s farms had electricity.

“Think about what a remarkable feat it was just to electrify rural America,” Coleman said. “Millions of miles of line, stretched across 75% of the nation’s land mass, all of it done with incentives, not mandates — incentives that were paid back in full, on time, and with interest.”

Clean Power Plan = Job Losses?

Coleman said NRECA and the co-ops are taking the same approach in their opposition to the CPP. In February, the Supreme Court stayed the plan pending resolution of legal challenges by the association and multiple states. Oral arguments are scheduled before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for Sept. 27.

An NRECA study says a 10% increase in electricity prices as a result of CPP compliance would cause annual job losses of 360,000 between 2020 and 2040 in areas served by co-ops. The study estimates a $1 trillion hit to GDP by 2040.

Other studies have suggested compliance costs could be minimal if natural gas prices remain low. (See PJM: Regional Plan Cuts Costs, but Gas Prices are Wild Card for CPP Compliance.) For its part, EPA contends the CPP will have health and climate benefits of $55 billion to $93 billion per year in 2030, “far outweighing the costs of $7.3 billion to $8.8 billion.”

“As a movement that had its origins in the Depression era, and one that was formed to serve some of the nation’s most economically disenfranchised citizens, electric co-ops are sensitive to regulations,” Coleman said. “We are very sensitive to mandates. We’re very sensitive to any regulation or mandate that could impact the affordability of the service we supply to our members.”

Coleman noted electric co-ops serve 327 of the nation’s 353 poorest counties, or “93% of the nation’s most economically vulnerable places.”

nreca

“Many of those folks can’t afford to see their power bill go up. They’re honest, hard-working folks living paycheck to paycheck. A $10-20 increase in the electric bill may not be a lot for those of us in this room, but I can tell you we have members for whom that’s a lot of money.”

Coleman told a story of a 90-year-old member of his North Arkansas Electric Cooperative, who told him she had figured out that by taking her medication every other day, she would be able to pay her electric bill.

“Our concern is the person on the other side of the meter,” he said. “One of the arguments used by supporters of the [CPP] is that the cost to shut down coal-fired power plants will be absorbed by the [plant owners] and their Wall Street investors. Well, that may be true for the investor-owned, but that’s not true for co-ops. The problem is, the owners of our company are not a bunch of faceless Wall Street investors. They’re farmers and ranchers and teachers and veterans and retirees.”

Coal Dependent

He pointed out co-ops are heavily dependent on coal-fired generation because of a “previous government mandate,” the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978. Prompted by the 1973 oil crisis and the natural gas curtailments of the mid-1970s, the legislation encouraged the use of coal, nuclear power and alternative fuels in new plants. Provisions restricting the use of natural gas by industrial users and electric utilities were repealed in 1987.

“Power plants are not short-term investments,” Coleman said. “With maintenance and upgrades for the latest technology, the useful life for a power plant extends many decades. Upgrades are typically financed by long-term debt. It could be years before those debts are paid off. To retire a plant while it still has a mortgage will effectively force those co-ops members to pay for that same power twice.”

That’s not to say co-ops aren’t embracing renewable energy, Coleman said.

He listed wind, solar and biomass as being critical elements in the association’s “all-of-the-above” approach to fuels, and briefly detailed several individual co-op initiatives related to solar technology, community energy storage and carbon capture.

“The common thread to all these projects is they’re responding to local challenges,” he said. “Co-ops face change, we face challenge. The good news is, the American spirit is in the heart of every co-op.

“Electric co-ops have long been innovators in the industry. Our smaller size makes us focus on new ideas and how they affect our members. We try new things all the time, and when one co-op discovers something that works, they share it with all of us.”

All for the little guy.

MISO-SPP Study Scope Finalized; Stakeholders Doubtful Projects will Result

By Amanda Durish Cook

MISO and SPP are moving ahead on a joint study focusing on seven projects, staff told stakeholders at a Sept. 7 Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee meeting.

The seven needs in the coordinated study scope include four projects suggested by both RTOs and three proposals from just SPP. The original list of study prospects had 10 suggested projects from SPP and five from MISO focusing on the seam with SPP’s Integrated System.

spp miso - projects in joint transmission study
Source: SPP

The final scope contains projects both inside and outside of the Integrated System seam. (See “MISO-SPP Coordinated Study Focusing on 5 Interregional Areas in Dakotas,” MISO Planning Advisory Committee Briefs.)

“We landed on a hybrid number that include seven issues. Part of the reason that it was limited to seven is because that’s the number we think we can complete by April,” SPP’s Adam Bell said. The coordinated study will run into the first quarter of 2017. The transmission elements to be studied are:

  • The Rugby tie linking the Western Area Power Administration-Upper Great Plains East balancing authority and Otter Tail Power in North Dakota;
  • The Hankinson-Wahpeton 230-kV line and the Jamestown-Buffalo 345-kV line on the Dakotas–Minnesota border;
  • The Granite Falls 115-kV circuit and the Lyon County 345-kV line in southwestern Minnesota;
  • The Sioux Falls-Lawrence 115-kV line and the Sioux Falls-Split Rock 230-kV line near the South Dakota–Minnesota border;
  • The Northeast-Charlotte 161-kV line and Northeast-Grand Ave West 161-kV line near the northern section of the Missouri–Kansas border;
  • The Neosho-Riverton 161-kV line and the Neosho-Blackberry 345-kV line in southeastern Kansas; and
  • The Brookline 345/161-kV circuit transformer in southwestern Missouri.

A majority of the 17 stakeholders that filed comments called for evaluating needs along the entire SPP-MISO seam and not individual geographic locations. However, some did support pruning the number of projects to a manageable number in light of the study deadline.

Bell said stakeholders gave “a lot of support” to studying all 11 interregional need candidates pulled from MISO’s 2016 Transmission Expansion Plan and SPP’s 2017 Integrated Transmission Planning 10-Year Assessment, which are both due to be completed in early 2017. (See SPP, MISO Try to Bridge Joint Study Scope Differences.)

Davey Lopez, MISO advisor of planning coordination and strategy, said this year’s targeted study will serve as a gateway for a large-scale overlay study process through 2019. “What we’re going to do is use this study as a foundation for a broader, longer-term effort in 2017. It’ll be a multiyear effort,” Lopez said.

MISO’s Eric Thoms said it’s yet to be seen how this year’s targeted study will feed into the overlay study, which will have its own scoping process.

Adam McKinney of the Missouri Public Service Commission repeated concerns that the RTOs were too quick to embark on an overlay study after last year’s targeted joint study failed to yield any interregional projects.

“It seems like you went on a very bad date and are proposing to get married … you’re going pie-in-the-sky here,” McKinney said.

Bell said McKinney had a point. “I personally am a strong believer that you can’t do the bigger things unless you do the smaller things. We have to be committed to this being actionable, and we don’t want to do studies for the sake of doing studies,” Bell said. Thoms added that “no-brainer” short-term studies will be given attention.

At a Sept. 9 meeting of SPP’s Seams Steering Committee, Steve Gaw, consultant for the Wind Coalition, asked if MISO was prepared to issue construction authorization if projects were identified. SPP Director of Interregional Relations David Kelley said MISO’s concern was authorizing projects that serve only as “Band-Aids” when the upcoming overlay study might reveal a larger, more permanent fix.

Paul Malone, transmission compliance and planning manager with the Nebraska Public Power District, pointed out that most of the seven projects are under MISO’s 345-kV threshold for cost allocation for market efficiency projects. He asked how MISO intends to fund them if they’re approved.

Kelley said unless the “ultimate solution” was at least a 345-kV rating, he didn’t have an answer. MISO was directed by FERC earlier in the year to remove its 345-kV threshold and $5 million cost minimum on interregional projects with PJM.

SPP asked FERC in July to apply the same directive to the MISO-SPP seam. In late July, MISO filed an answer saying that eliminating its SPP thresholds was outside the scope of the PJM order (ER16-1969). A response from FERC is pending.

Shelly-Ann Maye, representing Midwest Power Transmission Arkansas, asked if any of three additional needs identified from SPP could result in competitive bidding. Kelley said “there’s nothing to prevent” a competitive project from emerging from any of the needs. Kelley said that the RTO’s respective portions of the lines could be bid on using the RTOs’ Tariffs.

Stakeholders also asked the RTOs to explain the reasoning behind using MISO wind information from 2005 and 2006. Lopez said the 2006 wind profile that MISO is using is deemed to be appropriate for use and the RTO is not actually using 11-year-old wind data.

“It’s not the actual data we’re using. And we do plan on using a 2012 profile in the near future,” Lopez said. MISO will begin to use a 2012 wind profile beginning with MTEP 17, but the updated wind profile use won’t likely make it into the targeted study, he said.

Kelley added the targeted study will become a proving ground for interregional process enhancements between SPP and MISO. When the study is finished in April, suggested projects — if any — will be turned over for regional review and cost allocation discussions.

Federal Briefs

Offshore wind could be competitive with existing generation in the Northeast within a decade, according to the second National Offshore Wind Strategy, released last week by the U.S. departments of Energy and the Interior.

national-offshore-wind-strategy-coverThe report cites a new cost analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory that predicts offshore wind costs could drop below $100/MWh between 2025 and 2030. “Assuming near-term deployment of offshore wind at a scale sufficient to support market competition and the growth of a supply chain, development of offshore wind energy in markets with relatively high electricity costs, such as the Northeast, could be cost-competitive within a decade,” it said.

The report, a joint project of the Energy Department’s Wind Energy Technologies Office and the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, updates the government’s first strategy, which was published in 2011. Officials estimate U.S. waters have a “technical potential” of 2,058 GW — nearly double the nation’s electric usage.

The report outlines 30 steps the two agencies plan to take to reach that potential, including reducing technical costs and risks, making the regulatory process more predictable and transparent, and improving market conditions for investment by quantifying the impact of integrating large amounts of offshore wind to the grid.

As of the end of 2015, BOEM has awarded 11 commercial leases for offshore wind development capable of producing 14.6 GW of capacity. Construction of the nation’s first offshore commercial wind farm, off Block Island, R.I., was completed last month and is expected to begin operations by the end of 2016.

More: National Offshore Wind Strategy: Facilitating the Development of the Offshore Wind Industry in the United States

Feds Halt Dakota Access After Judge Denies Tribe’s Request

The Obama administration ordered a halt to construction of the Dakota Access oil pipeline Friday, minutes after a federal judge rejected a request by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe to halt construction of the $3.8 billion, 1,172-mile crude oil pipeline.

The departments of Justice and Interior and the Army jointly ordered work to stop on one segment of the project in North Dakota, where it crosses under the Missouri River near the Standing Rock reservation, and asked developer Energy Transfer Partners to “voluntarily pause” action on a wider span on private land that the tribe says holds sacred artifacts. The tribe has challenged the Army Corps of Engineers’ decision to grant permits for the pipeline at more than 200 water crossings.

In his ruling, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said that the court “does not lightly countenance any depredation of lands that hold significance” to the tribe, but nonetheless said the tribe “has not demonstrated that an injunction is warranted here.”

More: The Associated Press; The New York Times

Bay Names Andrea McBarnette FERC Administrative Law Judge

FERC Chairman Norman Bay appointed Andrea McBarnette, former federal prosecutor and administrative law judge with the Social Security Administration, to be an ALJ for the commission.

A 1997 graduate of Georgetown University Law Center who earned her undergraduate degree from Stanford University, McBarnette built a private law practice in intellectual property, employment law and securities fraud. She then became an assistant U.S. Attorney for the U.S. District Court for D.C. She became an ALJ for the Social Security Administration last year.

“I am pleased to welcome Judge McBarnette to the commission,” Bay said. “I am confident that her experience will serve the public and our stellar ALJ office.”

More: FERC

NRC to Review Generator Failure at Wolf Creek Nuclear Station

wolfcreeknrcOperators of the Wolf Creek nuclear generating station in Kansas are scheduled to meet with Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff to review the failure of an emergency backup diesel generator during a test two years ago. The commission released its preliminary findings of the 2014 incident, when a faulty electrical component kept the emergency diesel generator from starting up when called on.

The findings come just days after the Coffey County plant shut down following a reactor cooling system leak, quickly followed by a magnitude 5.6 earthquake that was centered near Pawnee, Okla. Plant officials said the station was scheduled to go offline for a refueling outage in mid-September, so they decided to keep it idle until the refueling is completed.

More: KVOE

EPA’s Smog Rule Doesn’t Impress Environmentalists

epasourcegovAn EPA update to its Cross-State Air Pollution Rule falls short of what some environmentalists wanted to see. An attorney for the Sierra Club, Zachary Fabish, said the updated rule calls for only “modest” emissions reductions for 22 states in the South, Midwest and East Coast.

The new rules would cut ground-level ozone, or smog, by 80,000 tons by 2017. The states covered by the smog rule are: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

More: Morning Consult

Renewable, Green Energy Groups Push for Tax Credit Extensions

Trade groups representing the biomass, hydro and other energy industries are putting pressure on Congress to extend tax credits seen as vital to helping their businesses compete with solar and wind.

If the tax credits now afforded to them expire at the end of the year, they say, “the end result is less reliable renewable baseload power will be deployed, which we believe is not the intent or desire of Congress and not in line with an all-of-the-above energy strategy.” While many hydro and biomass tax credits expire in December, credits for wind remain until the end of 2019.

The letter was written to congressional leaders by the National Hydropower Association, American Biogas Council, Biomass Power Association and Energy Recovery Council.

More: The Hill

Overheard at the PJM Market Summit

PHILADELPHIA — More than 100 generators, consultants, RTO officials and utility executives attended Infocast’s PJM Market Summit 2016. Here’s some of what we heard:

Don’t understand what the big deal with the capacity market is? Jeff Plewes of Charles River Associates offered a metaphor most people are likely to understand: buffet restaurants.

Plewes likened the energy market to the main buffet and the capacity market as the salad bar. High natural gas prices allowed for “steak night every night” early on, Plewes said. But when tour buses of new diners in the form of new renewable generators showed up to “feast” on the main buffet, it sent existing customers to the salad bar for most of their meal.

That’s led to new house rules in the form of Capacity Performance — and many additional questions. Among them, Plewes said:

      • How locational deliverability area prices will be influenced by the relative shares of base and CP capacity;
      • How seasonal and intermittent resources will be accommodated and the role of aggregation; and
      • Whether the capacity market will be split into separate classes for subsidized and competitive units.

Storage requires significant coordination to get interconnected into PJM’s grid and what to do with it when it gets there isn’t quite clear. “Arbitrage is actually a really bad economic model for storage,” said RES Americas’ John Fernandes.

PJM’s Frank Koza said his group is developing some new documents for clarity on Order 1000 processes, but bristled at the idea of being so transparent that developers are “standing next to us” while rules are being crafted. “Quite frankly, we’ve got to be able to strike a balance,” he said.

He also acknowledged that PJM hasn’t always been fully committed to the sponsorship model — in which the RTO defines the problem and invites developers to engineer and “sponsor” solutions. “We have done some soul searching about the model itself,” he said. “We’ve thought about it and decided to stay with the sponsorship model.”

While there was some support for PJM’s work, most saw room for improvement. Tom Dagenais of American Transmission Co. likened the process to “making love in a bathtub” — it seems like a great idea, but implementing it is a real challenge.

The Future of Demand Response

Even though the U.S. Supreme Court upheld FERC’s Order 745 earlier this year, demand response as a capacity resource in PJM is “mostly dead barring changes in CP,” said Jed Trott of Customized Energy Solutions. Annual changes to DR rules have made customers more “cynical” that power markets are designed to take advantage of them, he said. Customers thought they were performing a public service by installing DR, but they will start making decisions based on what’s best for them, rather than what appears best for the grid.

“It’s kind of like slapping them in the face,” said Judy McElroy of Fractal Business Analytics. “It’s like, ‘whatever you did didn’t count.’”

As customers add in-house DR technologies that markets aren’t aware of, it will become increasingly harder to accurately predict demand, “which probably means the RTO will be over-procuring because they won’t have that much insight into the curtailment by those customers,” said Allen Freifeld of Viridity Energy.

But the markets will have to adjust to that new reality, said Frank Lacey of Electric Advisors Consulting. “One of the major benefits — the major benefit — to a company is it can avoid its capacity charges by participating in demand response. … Demand response companies [are] going to have to change their business models, but demand response is alive and well,” he said. “Maybe not in PJM, maybe not in any of the other markets, but from a customer perspective, from a supplier perspective, the market’s not going away. You’ve given customers a taste for something, and they like it. They’re not going to give it up. ”

Others on the financial side at the summit weren’t as concerned about DR’s future. “DR, frankly, is a crappy tool,” said Barry Trayers of Citigroup Energy. “You can see why PJM isn’t very happy to price it in the supply curve.”

The issue with aggregating seasonal DR resources is that there are far fewer winter options, explained Robert Weishaar Jr. of McNees Wallace & Nurick, which represents the PJM Industrial Customer Coalition. So while summer options provide the majority of the value and potential risk for nonperformance, winter products are necessary to create a year-round capacity offer, he said.

“There is a lot of money at stake,” he said.

So far, there have been no commercially aggregated offers in any CP Base Residual Auction, he said. Asked how seasonal resources will likely be married, he said he expects “forced weddings.”

The Future of Solar

Solar installations are “booming,” according to Jay Carlis of Community Energy, because the module price per watt has fallen to less than $1 and “trackers” allow panels to pivot along with the sun to produce more energy during late peak hours when it is more valuable. In addition, companies are finding value in financing development projects through long-term, offsite power purchase agreements.

That said, Carlis sees no opportunity for further wind development in PJM without PPAs. The last round of major wind development in the market happened around 2008, he said, and “those owners are not happy” with the returns they’re receiving.

Getting More from Hydro

Dana Hall of the Low Impact Hydropower Institute highlighted the potential growth of both run-of-river hydro and pumped storage — and the Department of Energy’s keen focus on utilizing it.

Hall quoted from the department’s Hydropower Vision Report 2016, which said more than 48 GW of new hydropower capacity could be online by 2050 through advances in technology, financing and environmental considerations. Pumped storage has the biggest upside, with growth potential of 62%.

“We have plenty of dams in this country,” she said. She showed a map of the country’s unpowered dams with a potential capacity of more than 1 MW; spots dotted the U.S. Most were in the midcontinent near the Mississippi River, but every PJM state except Delaware showed opportunity.

Hall’s institute provides certifications that allow projects to qualify as, for example, Tier 1 resources in Pennsylvania. By 2021, Pennsylvania utilities must obtain 8% of their power from Tier 1 renewables.

“I think every project has the potential to pass,” Hall said, “but they might have to invest heavily.”

Simple-Cycle Offers Opportunities in Volatility

Matti Rautkivi, of generator manufacturer Wärtsilä, sees volatility as an opportunity to make money. For example, volatility in the Australian market means that prices hit the market’s $13,000 price cap several times a month, he explained.

While price caps are lower in PJM’s markets, there’s certainly plenty of volatility to exploit. Rautkivi showed a map of volatility in the U.S., and the vast majority — including the highest prices — was in PJM’s footprint.

His solution to capturing that value utilized natural gas as the fuel — no surprise there — but relied on simple cycle plants rather than larger combined cycle ones. Why? Speed, of course. The “reality today” of Wärtsilä’s 225-MW “standard plant” design is highly sensitive response, needing 30 seconds to synch, two minutes to ramp up to full capacity, one minute to ramp down and five minutes of downtime before it can do it all again.

That responsiveness was the basis of a plan that allowed Denton, Texas, to achieve its goal of receiving 70% of its supply from renewable sources. Modeling showed that using the plant to make a profit off of price spikes in the market while also avoiding paying high costs for electricity would save the town $975 million compared to securing its desired supply mix exclusively from the market.

Rory D. Sweeney