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November 7, 2024

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Oregon DEQ Foresees Economic, Equity Benefits from ACC II

Oregon’s adoption of California’s Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) rules could cost automakers up to $3 billion to comply with the regulations but provide the Pacific Northwest state about $5.8 billion in economic benefits by 2040, according to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ).

The new rules would also support the state’s efforts to improve racial equity by reducing pollution along transportation corridors that often run through low-income areas home to a disproportionate number of people of color, the department says.

The assessments were included in the DEQ’s draft fiscal and racial equity impact statements, a requirement of its process to review and adopt the ACC II rules.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) last month approved ACC II to replace the Golden State’s existing vehicle emissions standards, starting with model year 2026. The new rules ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars in California in 2035 and include a stricter low-emission vehicle (LEV) component for any such cars sold before then. (See Calif. Adopts Rule Banning Gas-powered Car Sales in 2035.)

Oregon is one of 17 states that follow California’s strict tailpipe emissions standards rather than the U.S. EPA’s looser ones. The DEQ has been moving quickly to adopt ACC II by 2026. (See Oregon Moving Quickly to Adopt Advanced Clean Cars II Rules.)

In developing the ACC II fiscal impact statement, the DEQ relied heavily on research already performed by CARB to ascertain the financial effects of the new rules, Rachel Sakata, senior air quality planner, said Tuesday during an online meeting of the state’s ACC II Advisory Committee. The meeting was intended to gather feedback from the committee and the public on the potential impact of the rules — especially on small businesses — before the DEQ issues a notice of proposed rulemaking next week.

Sakata said the $3 billion in impacts to automakers represents Oregon’s estimated share of the costs the companies will take on to convert their production to zero-emission vehicles and LEVs and market them to consumers. The DEQ’s figure is based on CARB’s finding that the impact of adopting the rules for California alone would cost car manufacturers $30 billion.

“The costs associated with this proposed rulemaking are going to be costs incurred by the manufacturers to produce and deliver certain percentages of zero-emission vehicles for each model year” for Oregon, starting with a 35% ZEV requirement for 2026, Sakata said.

The DEQ draft impact statement points out that cost to comply in Oregon could actually be less than $3 billion because of the economies of scale resulting from compliance in California.

“I think Ford alone has committed to investing $50 billion before 2026 on our EV plan, and I know where that’s just Ford; the other companies are in similar spots,” said Advisory Committee member Steve Henderson, director of vehicle regulatory strategy and planning at Ford. “So there’s a tremendous amount of investment being targeted for this, and that’s a good thing; that’s going to make this happen — but it’s a lot more than $3 billion.”

“You’re thinking nationwide, right?” Sakata asked.

“These are the costs of development; these aren’t the costs of selling,” Henderson replied. “I’m not in a position to say what our costs of selling the EVs will be compared to the [internal combustion engine cars], but that’s the amount that we’re investing so that we can produce these vehicles.”

Sakata said the DEQ acknowledged that the new rules will incur direct costs for 17 auto manufacturers, but she also noted that California is already seeing declining costs for EV batteries.

“We recognize that the costs to manufacturers will be high per vehicle, particularly in the early years of this regulation, but are expected to decrease over time by 2035,” she said.

Health Benefits

The fiscal impact statement assumes no direct costs to consumers from adopting ACC II but notes the potential for indirect costs in the form of higher prices for EVs and the need to install home chargers. Still, those costs should be outweighed by $675 million in indirect net benefits resulting from the expected lower overall cost of ownership for EVs, largely from lower maintenance costs and reduced fuel expenses, the DEQ found.

But the department foresees a much larger pool of net benefits — more than $5 billion — based on savings stemming from the reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. Based on its own estimates and those of the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), the DEQ expects the ACC II rule will reduce Oregon’s GHG emissions by 48 to 54.1 MMT per year by 2040.

“A recent analysis conducted by DEQ for the [Oregon Clean Fuels Program] Expansion 2022 Rulemaking indicates that transitioning to lower-carbon transportation fuels through 2035 provides significant health benefits to Oregonians, in the range of $90 million per year of avoided health costs. Much of this can be attributed to reduction in particulate emissions due to electrification,” the impact statement says.

The DEQ cited pollution reduction as a major benefit in its impact statement on racial equity, which state law requires must be a primary consideration in all new regulations.

“The pollution and public health impacts from on-road vehicle emissions are significant in many overburdened and underserved communities. Communities that are adjacent to or near transportation facilities and corridors are disproportionately impacted by those emissions and are traditionally lower-income and have a higher percentage of Black, indigenous and other peoples of color residents,” the statement says.

Sakata said the state understands that the relatively higher costs for EVs can be a barrier to ownership for lower-income residents, but she reiterated the lower long-term costs associated with the vehicles. She also pointed out that ACC II rules contain provisions intended to ensure that EVs be transitioned to the used car market and assure that automakers provide vehicles that are durable, offer a minimum driving range, provide sufficient warranties for batteries and other parts and allow for DC fast charging.

“Because, you know, for those who may not have access to home charging, they’re going to be more reliant on public fast charging, and so ensuring that there’s that capability for the vehicles will help overall,” Sakata said.

Advisory Committee member Victoria Paykar, transportation policy manager at Climate Solutions, said that low-income areas and communities of color have lower access to EV charging infrastructure. Paykar encouraged the DEQ to partner with the state’s Department of Transportation to ensure that charging stations with competitive rates and services be made available in those communities.

Impacts on Mom and Pop

The DEQ has less insight into the financial impact of the ACC II rules on businesses outside the auto industry. Sakata said the rule change would likely represent one of the “largest growth opportunities” for electric utilities, while EV infrastructure provides should also benefit. Traditional auto parts suppliers will probably lose some business, while suppliers of batteries and other EV parts would see increased sales.

Sakata noted that the estimated 1,800 small automobile repair shops across Oregon could see “negative fiscal impact” from the transition to EVs, given their smaller number of moving parts compared with gas-powered cars.

“So, this trend overall suggests that the number of businesses providing these services may decrease along with a reduced demand over time. However, there will still be gasoline vehicles on the road for well past the regulation time frame,” Sakata said.

Committee member Glenn Choe, a regulatory affairs specialist at Toyota, asked if the DEQ had modeled the economic impact of the rules on smaller “mom-and-pop” gas stations.

“Because what we could anticipate is that the smaller gas stations go away, and the larger gas stations like the ones from Costco or the grocery stores take over, that there is some loss of pricing power for consumers, given the fact that larger entities could have a greater influence on gasoline or fuel availability and also pricing,” Choe said.

“We have not done any specific modeling for the mom-and-pop businesses; that was a little harder for us to sort of be able to quantify,” Sakata said.

Speaking during the public comment period of the meeting, Michelle Detwiler, executive director of the Renewable Hydrogen Alliance, pointed to the apparent interchangeability of the terms “ZEV” and “EV” during the meeting. She said her organization would continue to “beat this drum” around the fact that California intended that all ZEV technologies be given equal emphasis under the ACC II rules — including fuel cell vehicles.

“I also wanted to mention that all of the health benefits in particular that will accrue to disadvantaged [and] overburdened communities from the adoption of EVs will also accrue to those communities from fuel cell electric vehicles,” Detwiler said.

Sakata said the DEQ plans to hold two more public meetings on the ACC II rules in mid-October, after issuing its proposed rulemaking next week. The department will seek approval for the final rule from Oregon’s Environmental Quality Commission in December.

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US Climate Alliance Marks First Five Years

The U.S. Climate Alliance, created in response to former President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, noted its fifth anniversary this week, celebrating its achievements and partnership with the Biden administration while soberly acknowledging the increasing impact of climate-related disasters.

Founded by California, New York and Washington state, the Alliance now numbers 23 states and Puerto Rico, representing 58% of the U.S. gross domestic product, 54% of its population and 41% of net greenhouse gas emissions.

The Alliance’s annual report, released this week, said its members reduced their net GHG emissions by 24% between 2005 and 2020, keeping them on track for meeting the Paris goals: at least a 26% cut in GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2025, at least a 50% cut by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

‘Dozens of New Laws’

Alliance members initiated “more than 40 high-impact actions” last year, the report said, including “dozens of new laws to adopt more aggressive emissions-reduction requirements and targets, reduce the climate impact of vehicles and buildings, and create governing bodies to guide state resilience and environmental justice actions and establish priorities. Members also have developed regulations to codify and operationalize their participation in carbon markets, EV sales mandates, and methane reductions from the oil and gas sector.”

Greenhouse gas emissions (US Climate Alliance) Content.jpgThe U.S. Climate Alliance — 23 states and Puerto Rico — reduced their net greenhouse gas emissions by 24% between 2005 and 2020. | U.S. Climate Alliance

 

The report also touted the impacts of the state’s actions:

  • Nearly half of the electricity generated in Alliance states is from zero-carbon resources, compared to about one-third in the rest of the country. Non-Alliance states are more than twice as reliant on coal power as Alliance members.
  • Alliance members generate half of the levels of criteria pollutants per capita of non-Alliance states, on average.
  • As of 2020, utility energy efficiency programs in Alliance states saved 1.5 MWh of electricity per capita over the lifetime of their programs, compared to 0.65 MWh per capita in the rest of the U.S.
  • Alliance members employ more than 40% more workers in renewable energy and energy efficiency than non-Alliance states.

The report also cited the growth of electric vehicle sales, with pure EVs accounting for 5.6% of vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2022, more than double the previous year. It also noted that solar and wind power account for nearly two-thirds of electric generation capacity expected to come online in 2022, with battery storage representing another 11%.

Friends in Washington

Created to fill a void in federal policy, the Alliance now has an ally in the White House. It praised the Biden administration for adopting more stringent corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, reinstating California’s authority to implement its own GHG emissions rules for cars and light-duty trucks, and its support for offshore wind. It also celebrated the administration’s recent legislative wins.

“With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act, states now have a major role to play in implementing and delivering the new and expanded programs and funding in a way that maximizes their climate benefits,” it said. The bills are the largest climate investments in U.S. history, with the IRA providing $369 billion in funding for climate and energy programs and $4 billion for Western drought resilience.

But the Alliance also noted U.S. experienced 20 “billion-dollar” extreme weather and climate-related events in 2021 totaling $145 billion, with another in the first half of 2022.

“One in three Americans report that an extreme weather event has personally affected them over the past two years,” it said, citing a Gallup poll. “And, as of June 2022, nearly every region of the continental United States had experienced some form of extreme weather including extreme heat, violent thunderstorms, wildfires, prolonged droughts and flooding.”

It also cited the Supreme Court’s ruling in June limiting EPA’s authority to curb GHG emissions from power plants. (See Supreme Court Rejects EPA Generation Shifting.)

“This moment has hardened the resolve of Alliance governors to continue moving forward with bold state climate action in 2023 and beyond,” it said. “States will continue playing a critical role in achieving the nation’s climate goals by  maximizing the climate benefits from new and expanded federal programs, thanks to recent congressional action, while continuing to advance bold climate action beyond the federal floor.”

Climate Week Announcements

The Alliance released its report during Climate Week in New York City, where New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy gave a joint press conference Wednesday. The governors spoke in front of more than 1,400 solar panels recently installed on the roof of the Javits Convention Center, the largest rooftop solar farm in Manhattan.

Hochul, one of three co-chairs of the Alliance, used the conference to announce an executive order committing to 100% renewable energy in state operations by 2030. All light-duty nonemergency vehicle fleets will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035, and all medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets will be ZEVs by 2040. She also said state agencies and authorities, which hold $50 billion in investments, will reach net zero in their portfolios by 2040.

Phil Murphy (Gov Kathy Hochul) Content.jpgNew Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy | Gov. Kathy Hochul

“I’m not going to tell the private sector what to do if we’re not prepared to make those same decisions internally,” she said. “We are going to transition to 100% renewable energy in all state operations by the year 2030. I’m making that pivot right now. We’re going to get that done.”

She also announced the state’s sixth competitive renewable energy solicitation, calling for 2,000 MW in large-scale projects.

And she made a pitch for her proposed $4.2 billion environmental bond issuance, which will be subject to a referendum in November, saying it would be “a game-changing investment in our infrastructure for our clean energy future.”

A major component of several Alliance members’ decarbonization strategies is offshore wind, with East Coast governors committing to almost 40 GW in procurements. That total increased with Murphy’s announcement Wednesday that he was boosting New Jersey’s target from 7,500 MW by 2035 to 11,000 by 2040.

“This is an aggressive target, but an achievable one when we combine the offshore wind plan currently in place and moving forward [and] the opportunities of the recently auctioned portions [of] the New York Bight, and the technological advancements that are making turbines more and more efficient, almost literally by the day,” Murphy said.

New York’s current OSW target is 9,000 MW by 2035.

While both states hope their OSW investments will produce economic development, Murphy insisted they were not in competition.

“I like to think of this as a cross-country meet. It’s not about the individual times; it’s about the team score. And while we’re still running for personal bests … we don’t win unless we each pull each other along so that the team wins,” he said.

Elections Loom

The Alliance expressed confidence that its progress will continue after the November elections, saying it was “committed to working across party lines with all governors willing to advance tangible climate solutions.”

Hochul is one of 36 governors who will face voters this fall, including 18 of the 23 states in the alliance. Twenty of the seats are currently held by Republicans and 16 by Democrats. (Murphy was narrowly re-elected last year.)

The Cook Political Report projects eight races, including New York, as solid Democratic and six leaning or likely Democrat, all of them members of the Alliance. Two of those states are currently headed by Republican moderates: Maryland’s Larry Hogan, who is term limited, and Massachusetts’ Charlie Baker, who is not seeking re-election.

Cook projects 12 solid Republican and five leaning/likely for the GOP, with only one — Vermont — a member of the Alliance.

That leaves five “toss up” races, including Alliance states Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin and non-members Arizona and Kansas.

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MISO, SPP Hunt for Small Interregional Tx Projects

MISO and SPP said Tuesday they have tentatively settled on qualifying criteria and will begin developing a first set of smaller interregional transmission projects.

The RTOs are using their new targeted market efficiency projects (TMEPs) process, incorporating many of their standards from those used on the MISO-PJM seam.

The grid operators proposed to the MISO-SPP Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee (IPSAC) that TMEPs:

  • cost $20 million or less;
  • must not be greenfield projects;
  • be in service by the third summer peak after their approval; and
  • completely cover their installed capital cost through avoided congestion within four years of service.

Their staffs plan to screen for possible TMEPs when a market-to-market (M2M) flowgate has amassed $1 million or more in congestion costs over a two-year period. The two have catalogued seven permanent flowgates that have racked up between $10 and $43 million worth of congestion. (See MISO, SPP Identify Hotspots for Smaller Interregional Tx Projects.)

The RTOs aren’t considering projects that have a pending transmission solution under their joint targeted interconnection queue study or MISO’s long-range transmission planning process. That knocks the RTOs’ most chronically congested flowgate — Neosho-Riverton on the Kansas-Missouri border — out of the running for a TMEP solution.

SPP’s Neil Robertson said the grid operators sought a cost-effective, low-risk approach to find projects that will resolve constraints rather than letting them continue to accrue congestion costs.

Multiple stakeholders said MISO and SPP should reconsider the $20 million cost threshold because of frail supply chains and escalating materials costs.

“We’re certainly sensitive to those arguments that a $20 million cost cap is quickly becoming antiquated,” Robertson said, adding that the RTOs will further examine the cost ceiling.

Robertson said a cost cap and three-year construction limit ensure that TMEPs don’t overlap with other interregional planning processes or “mask” opportunities for larger, more comprehensive projects.  

He said that while beneficial greenfield projects could meet the other TMEP criteria, the RTOs think it “extremely unlikely” given the current challenges with obtaining siting approval for new transmission.

Other stakeholders advised the grid operators to be more flexible in their criteria because they have yet to approve an interregional project.

“Transmission planning is in a transitory state for much of the country,” Robertson said, explaining that FERC is developing transmission planning criteria and grid operators are currently expanding planning practices.

“We feel like this, most of all, is an appropriate first step to take,” he said.  

Data Limitations on First TMEP Recs 

The first set of TMEP recommendations will be restricted by SPP’s current congestion data limitations, as the RTO doesn’t model MISO constraints in its day-ahead market calculations. The initial TMEPs will only consider SPP M2M constraints because those are the only constraints that have a complete set of historical data, Robertson said.  

Robertson said that by next June, SPP plans to incorporate MISO constraints, likely giving the RTOs a better understanding of congestion by the second batch of TMEPs.

MISO Independent Market Monitor David Patton has criticized SPP’s failure to model MISO’s constraints in its day-ahead market, saying it makes some uneconomic generation units appear economic in the SPP market. (See MISO Says System Volatility Here to Stay.)

Robertson said he while wouldn’t delve into “longstanding market mechanics,” SPP is currently investigating how it can consider its neighbor’s constraints.

The grid operators hope to present viable TMEP candidates to stakeholders during an Oct. 28 IPSAC meeting.

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Midwest Governors Form Clean Hydrogen Coalition

Seven Midwest governors on Monday announced the creation of the Midwestern Hydrogen Coalition to accelerate clean hydrogen’s production and use.

Dubbed the M-H2 Coalition, the group includes Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin. Their governors signed a memorandum of understanding that seeks to establish a “robust clean hydrogen market, supply chain and workforce ecosystem in the Midwest.”

The participating governors said the Midwest has the potential to be a clean hydrogen market because it’s already flush with an ammonia distribution network, pipelines and agricultural nurse tanks, thanks to the region’s manufacturing and agricultural background.

The coalition said it will use a “coordinated multistate, multisector approach to developing a robust and sustainable hydrogen economy across the Midwest, informed by industry, academic and community engagement.” It plans to create a taskforce of senior leadership from each participating state and collaborate with corporations, universities and nonprofit organizations to best determine how to remove barriers and develop a Midwest workforce and market for clean hydrogen.

The M-H2 Coalition said it will pursue funding through applications for hydrogen hub designation under the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The legislation appropriated $8 billion to the U.S. Department of Energy to create regional clean hydrogen hubs, or networks of production, consumers and connective infrastructure. The DOE is expected to open a application period for the hubs this fall.

“We don’t have to choose between clean energy and clean air and creating good paying jobs and a strong economy — we can do both,” Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers said in a press release.

“Kentucky’s robust infrastructure, strong chemical and manufacturing base, along with our leadership in the automotive and logistics sectors position us as a natural location for economic development in hydrogen,” Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said. “We are looking forward to working with our Midwest and local industry partners to build a hydrogen economy in Kentucky.”

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said the “partnership will be the start of a new era of energy production that will create jobs and grow our economy.” He said the coalition is “just the beginning of our support for a clean hydrogen market.”

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Pa. Steps up EV Incentives as Federal NEVI Funding Arrives

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has awarded incentives of $5.4 million for electric vehicle purchases and the installation of 54 direct current fast chargers (DCFCs) as the state plans how to spend another $25.4 million in federal funds allocated last week to get more EV chargers on its key highways.

Pennsylvania was among the first 35 states to have its EV charger plan approved for funding under the National Electric Vehicle Initiative (NEVI) program, funded by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

With $2 million in state funds available for purchase incentives, the DEP has increased the maximum rebate available under the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Rebate Program (AFV) from $750 to $3,000. The department expects the latest tranch of funds to put an additional 1,000 EVs on the road in a strategy that it says is aimed at working-class households.

It also announced on Sept. 8 that it has awarded $3.4 million from the state’s share of the Volkswagen settlement to fund the installation of fast chargers in 16 high-traffic locations under the state’s Driving PA Forward DC Fast Charging Grants program. DCFCs, which can charge a battery electric vehicle to 80% in 20 to 60 minutes, will be installed on several corridors across the state, with charging stations available only every 50 miles.

“DEP continues to work strategically to support Pennsylvanians’ growing interest in zero-emission electric vehicles,” acting Secretary Ramez Ziadeh said in announcing the awards. “By reducing nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, particulate matter, carbon dioxide and other pollutants from the transportation sector, we make the air quality healthier in our communities, while helping to slow down climate change and its impacts.”

The department’s shift toward offering greater support for lower-income EV buyers follow its 2020-2021 report on the AFV program released in May showing that of 995 grants awarded that year just 21 residents were eligible for an extra incentive of $1,000.

Under the new rules, buyers whose household income is below 400% of the federal poverty level are eligible for a $2,000 incentive, and those with incomes of 200% of the poverty level would be eligible for an additional $1,000. That means, for example, that a family of two with a household income of $69,000 is eligible for a $2,000 rebate, but a family of two with a household income of $35,000 would be eligible for a $3,000 rebate, the DEP says.

Reinventing Transportation

Pennsylvania announced on Sept. 14 that under its NEVI plan, it will receive $25.4 million from the Biden administration’s initial tranche of $171 million to provide 80% of the cost of an EV charging infrastructure project.

NEVI funds are aimed at ensuring that alternative fuel corridors (AFCs) have a charging station every 50 miles or less and a charging station within 1 mile of an exit or a highway intersection. Pennsylvania’s NEVI submission said most of the 2,000 miles of the state’s AFCs had gaps of more than 50 miles between charging stations.

The federal funds will give the state the “the opportunity to reinvent transportation in a way that is smarter, cleaner, safer, more equitable and more efficient than ever before,” said Yassmin Gramian, secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. “And we are ready to put them to good use.”

The number of EVs registered in the state, about 31,000, is nearly triple that of three years ago, according to the DEP. But that is still a minor share of the overall vehicle population. The state’s NEVI report said that the 23,500 registered EVs in 2021 accounted for less than 1% of the 10.3 million vehicles registered in the state.

The NEVI report, which was submitted in July, said that the state had about 2,300 Level 2 chargers in 1,100 locations  and 560 DCFCs in 130 locations. However, about 65% of those ports are Tesla chargers, which can’t be used by other vehicles. And the Federal Highway Administration estimates that only about two-thirds of the fast-charger stations are available to the public, the report said.

Convenience Charging Sites

Boosting the number and availability of public chargers is key to overcoming range anxiety and increasing the number of EVs on the road.

Seeking to improve the accessibility of charging infrastructure, the Driving PA Forward program has now funded the installation of 106 DCFC plugs in 34 locations, among them the recently announced projects. The program will fund up to 65% of a charger installation project, depending on the location, to a maximum of $250,000 in four types of locations: high-transportation areas, EV interstate corridors that are being developed in Pennsylvania, destination locations and community hubs.

The latest grant awards predominantly funded installations at convenience stores, such as Wawa, Sheetz, Coen Markets and KwikFill, as well as allocating $500,000 for the installation of eight chargers at two plazas on Interstate 76 westbound and eastbound in the Somerset County area, just outside of Pittsburgh.

The AFV program has since 2011 awarded more than $15 million in incentives to more than 10,000 Pennsylvanians, primarily for battery or plug-in hybrid EVs, according to DEP spokeswoman Deborah Klenotic.

The program funds the purchase of vehicles priced $50,000 or less, including pre-owned and dealer demonstration vehicles. Aside from the rebates of up to $3,000 for a battery EV, the program awards $1,500 for a plug-in hybrid and $500 for a compressed natural gas vehicle, propane-fueled vehicle or an electric motorcycle.

In the 2020-2021 funding year, with the incentive at $750 plus $1,000 for low-income residents, the program approved 995 rebates worth $674,750, according to the DEP’s annual report. Of these, about 63% were battery EVs and 36% were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Tesla Model 3s accounted for the largest group of incentives, with 22%, followed by Chevrolet Bolt, with 14%. The third largest, the Chrysler Pacifica, had 10%.

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Strong Growth, Challenges Reported in Grid-scale Energy Storage

Grid-scale energy storage totaling 1.17 GW was installed across the U.S. in the second quarter of 2022, a 212% increase from the same quarter of 2021, an industry report shows.

But an almost equal amount — 1.16 GW — of installations projected to come online in the second quarter were delayed or canceled because of problems in the supply chain, shipment delays or challenges in the interconnection queue.

The quarterly U.S. Energy Storage Monitor report by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the American Clean Power Association (ACP) was released Sept. 14.

It found a smaller increase in residential installations (154 MW in the second quarter of 2022, up 67%) and a decrease in community/commercial/industrial installation (26.3 MW, down 24%).

Wood Mackenzie forecasts rapid and steady growth in the next few years, with U.S. installed capacity expanding 192 GWh from 2022 through 2026. But analyst Vanessa Witte expects continued headwinds in the near term.

“Despite impressive growth, the U.S. grid-scale energy storage pipeline continues to face rolling delays into 2023 and beyond. More than 1.1 GW of projects originally scheduled to come online in Q2 were delayed or canceled, although 61% of this capacity, 709 MW, is still scheduled to come online in Q3 and Q4 of 2022,” she said in a news release announcing the report.

Investment tax credits enacted for standalone storage and extended for solar power as part of the Inflation Reduction Act are expected to support all segments of the energy storage industry, the authors of the report said.

“The U.S. energy storage industry is reaching maturity,” said Jason Burwen, ACP’s vice president of energy storage. “Energy storage is now regularly being installed at over a gigawatt per quarter. In addition, Texas overtaking California this quarter should serve as a reminder that generators, customers and grid operators in all geographies are increasingly relying on energy storage.”

The capacity of the units installed in the second quarter of 2022 totaled 3.04 GWh, the bulk of it in grid-scale projects, which accounted for 2.61 GWh.

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NYISO Proposes $191M 2023 Budget, 13% Increase

NYISO is proposing a $191 million budget for 2023, a 13% increase over the current spending plan, with funding for salary increases, 20 new staffers and 54 projects.

The spending plan will be allocated across a forecast 156.7 million MWh for an RS-1 surcharge of $1.219/MWh, an 8% boost from the 2022 surcharge, Chief Financial Officer Cheryl Hussey told the Budget & Priorities Working Group Sept. 15. The ISO’s projected 2023 throughput represents a 4.5% increase over the 2022 budgeted MWh.

Among the key drivers behind proposed spending increases are “recruitment and retention challenges,” which led the ISO to implement a 3% salary increase for all non-executive employees retroactive to Jan. 1 and targeted hikes for engineers and other positions that a benchmarking study found were underpaid relative to their peers. (See NYISO Details 2023 Budget & Compensation Updates.)

The budget also includes funding for compensation adjustments of 6%. Hussey pointed out that “RTO and ISO peers” have planned similar salary increases with some “ranging from 5.5-7%.”

NYISO 2023 Draft Budget (NYISO) Content.jpgNYISO 2023 draft budget breakdown highlights (2023 vs. 2022) | NYISO

 

The budget will raise the authorized headcount from 608 to 628, with new positions primarily in System and Resource Planning, Stakeholder Services, Operations and Market Operations. These positions are in response to “new, increasing, and expanding workload,” Hussey said.

Although the ISO will use $5.7 million of its 2021 budget surplus to make early debt repayments, increased borrowing in 2022 will increase principal repayments by $700,000 in 2023 over this year.

The ISO said inflation was responsible for $9 million of the $21.8 million increase from 2022.

BPWG Chair Alan Ackerman will present the 2023 draft budget to the Management Committee on Sept. 28, with an MC vote set for Oct. 26.

Pandemic Recovery

NYISO’s Max Schuler presented the working group an updated RS-1 budget forecast for 2023, projecting net energy of 150,580 GWh, 3,900 GWh of exports and 2,200 GWh of wheels, for the RS-1 total of 156,700 GWh. The 2022 budget forecast, originally 150,000 GWh, has been updated to 156,740 GWh.

The New York Control Area’s energy consumption has largely recovered from the COVID pandemic, which saw throughput drop by almost 4% in 2020 from the year prior. Schuler said the state is experiencing “close to across-the-board recovery from the pandemic” relative to the pre-COVID forecast, with the “exception of New York City, which has also gone positive at times in 2022.”

However, the 2023-2027 forecast predicts both net energy and RS-1 totals will decline in outer years due to energy efficiency improvements and behind-the-meter solar growth. Net energy is projected to drop to 147,580 GWh in 2027, a drop of 2% from 2023.

Long Island has already entered in negative growth while the Upstate and Hudson Valley regions are near net 0% energy growth in recent months, signaling the completion of their pandemic recovery and a return to long-term negative load growth trends.

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Inflation Hampering Efforts to Expand EV Charging Network in NY

New York utilities say rising costs are hampering their efforts to expand electric vehicle charging infrastructure through the EV Make-Ready Program.

The remarks came Tuesday at the start of a midpoint review held by the state Public Service Commission to assess progress on the five-year, $701 million effort by the state’s large investor-owned utilities.

The Make-Ready Program does not cover the chargers themselves but helps pay for most of the associated costs: up to 50% of costs at private-access or proprietary chargers, 90% at public non-proprietary chargers and 100% of costs in disadvantaged communities.

But it calculates the incentive from a baseline price tag that utilities say is obsolete.

Most of the utility representatives speaking Tuesday said escalating costs have deterred some potential customers from committing to installation of charging stations.

The Joint Utilities of New York (JU) — made up of the six IOUs in the state — said the actual cost of a Level 2 charger ranges from 5% below the baseline price on which the incentives are based for Rochester Gas and Electric (NYSE:AGR), to 39% higher for Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED). The weighted average statewide is 29% higher.

“The high costs have certainly been a challenge and have led to attrition given that the incentives are limited,” said Cliff Baratta of Con Ed.

Nonetheless, response has been strong, and Con Ed’s Make-Ready pipeline is nearly full, Baratta said. The utility continues to take applications because it knows some applicants will not follow through and commit to installation.

Rising prices are not just affecting EV chargers; EVs themselves have gotten more expensive and are in short supply.

Zeryai Hagos, deputy director of the Office of Markets and Innovation at the Department of Public Service, said the number of EVs and plug-in hybrids registered in New York has roughly doubled to 115,000 since the Make-Ready Program began in New York in 2020, but manufacturers’ production constraints place a ceiling on sales.

“The primary objective of the EV Make-Ready Program is to incentivize the development of enough public EV charging stations to support our zero-emissions vehicle goals and to assuage range anxiety of potential electrical vehicle buyers,” Hagos said.

Worries about being stranded with a depleted battery is one factor that limits EV sales. The purchase cost is another. Sales of new EVs are increasing sharply, but they still account for only a tiny fraction of vehicles on U.S. roads.

“Our customers are not quite seeing the demand from drivers yet to justify the expense of installing EV charging stations without a little bit more financial support on the EV stations themselves,” said Kate Carleo of National Grid. “That said, we do expect interest to stay strong and to be able to ramp up from here.”

She also said the utility has seen several successes so far: deployment of electric public transit buses and heavy trucks, installation of charging stations at auto dealerships, municipal public charging, and assistance provided to school districts with EPA’s Clean School Bus program.

Multiple speakers said the expiration of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority’s Charge Ready NY incentive a year ago was a significant setback, causing potential customers to postpone or cancel plans to install chargers.

“As a whole, the JU has observed that for many customers, the existing utility incentives and the eligibility structures are not enough to justify a business case to put in chargers,” ICF’s Lauren Kastner said.

“Additionally, most of the JU companies observed a dropoff in applications when the NYSERDA Charge Ready NY funds went away in the fall of 2021. And that meant that many customers proved to be sensitive to the lack of stackable incentives to cover total project costs.”

Kastner suggested raising the baseline costs used to calculate incentives to reflect the actual present-day cost of chargers, as well as additional incentive funding streams.

Adam Ruder of NYSERDA said a successor to Charge Ready NY is in the works: “We are developing a new Level 2 charging program that we are refining and hope to be able to bring out in the not-too-distant future.”

April 2022 status reports by the utilities showed a slow start to the rollout, and Tuesday’s update painted a similar picture.

The goal of the EV Make-Ready Program is 1,500 HVDC fast chargers and 53,733 Level 2 chargers installed by 2025.

So far, 205 DC fast chargers have been installed, with commitments for 298 more and applications submitted for 1,639 others. Meanwhile, 3,344 Level 2 chargers have been installed, with commitments for 8,515 more and applications for 11,099 others.

The midpoint review that commenced Tuesday will continue through early 2023 with stakeholder input, technical conferences and DPS staff recommendations. The revised Make-Ready order is targeted for issuance in mid-2023.

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NRG to Demolish Astoria Plant, Sell Site to OSW Firm

Rebuffed on its repowering plans, a subsidiary of NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) is planning to demolish the 558-MW Astoria Generating Station in New York City and sell the site to an offshore wind developer.

Astoria Gas Turbine Power LLC (AGTP) and Beacon Wind Land LLC petitioned the state Public Service Commission on Sept. 15 and asked for approval on or before the PSC’s Nov. 17 session.

The state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) in October 2021 denied AGTP’s request to refurbish the aging facility with a new 437-MW dual fossil fuel-fired peaking combustion turbine generator on the grounds that it would not comply with greenhouse gas emission limits set in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.

“Astoria has failed to demonstrate that the project is justified notwithstanding this inconsistency [with state emission limits], as it has not demonstrated a reliability need for the project,” DEC said. “Nor has Astoria identified adequate alternatives or GHG mitigation measures.” (See NY Regulators Deny Astoria, Danskammer Gas Projects’ Air Permits.)

Environmental and community activists applauded the ruling; the surrounding area in northwest Queens, with its collection of fossil fuel power plants past and present, has been nicknamed “Asthma Alley.”

AGTP plans to retire the power plant on May 1, 2023, then decommission and demolish it within six months. 

Under the arrangement outlined in the new petition, AGTP would sell the 15.7-acre site to Beacon Wind Land and lease it back while it winds down operations there, which it expects to complete by Oct. 31, 2023. 

Beacon Wind Land is an affiliate of Beacon Wind LLC, which is developing the 1,230-MW Beacon Wind project east of Long Island. When AGTP clears the Astoria site, Beacon Wind Land will lease it to Beacon Wind LLC or another affiliate to locate converter stations and points of interconnection for offshore wind power cables, or other renewable energy resources.

Beacon Wind Land LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Shared Renewable Energy Assets LLC, which is jointly owned by Equinor Wind US LLC and BP Wind Energy North America, Inc.

Equinor and BP are also upstream owners of Empire Offshore Wind LLC, which is developing the 816-MW Empire Wind 1 and 1,365-MW Empire Wind 2 projects off the New York coast.

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FERC Finds Few Issues in Lengthy Audit on PJM Operations

FERC found just one instance in which PJM failed to follow rules and procedures during a five-year timespan, according to a report released earlier this month on an extensive audit conducted on PJM’s operations.

PJM did not contest the finding, and RTO officials said in a statement that they were proud of the results.

“While we always strive for perfect compliance, this is an important achievement that reflects the incredibly strong culture of compliance at PJM and validates our emphasis on compliance in all aspects of our business practices and operations,” PJM CEO Manu Asthana said in a statement.

The audit examined PJM’s markets, operations and planning from January 2016 and May 2021 and its compliance with its own tariff and Operating Agreement, rules and practices, and FERC orders.

“The scope of this audit was enormous and touched many areas of our organization. It examined our compliance with thousands of pages of governing documents and required a significant investment of time and resources from PJM staff,” Asthana said.

Speaking during a Members Committee webinar Monday, PJM Assistant General Counsel Thomas DeVita attributed the length of the audit to the COVID-19 pandemic and PJM’s large size relative to other organizations. The commission typically audits RTOs approximately every 10 years, he said.

“That’s just an extraordinarily long period of time for an audit, even by FERC standards,” DeVita said.

The one instance FERC found was related to a failure to properly “offer cap a self-scheduled generation resource in the day-ahead energy market for 18 hours on Jan. 21, 2019, despite the fact that its owner had failed the three-pivotal-supplier (TPS) test.” It was caused by operators using outdated provisions of PJM’s tariff, which had been superseded by FERC filings, according to the report.

It recommended developing new written procedures and supplying staff with periodic training. The commission is also requiring PJM to conduct a study into whether resources of all generation suppliers that failed the TPS test were offer capped and provide the results to auditors within 90 days.

The report came with 20 recommendations in total, three of which were related to the noncompliance instance, but also focused on software issues, incentives to follow dispatch, day-ahead resource commitment and FERC Order 760, which requires data related to markets to be sent to the commission’s Office of Enforcement.

Chris O'Hara, PJMChris O’Hara, PJM | © RTO Insider

An implementation plan for compliance with the recommendations is due Oct. 1. The commission is also asking for quarterly submissions to its Division of Audits and Accounting describing progress made on the recommendations.

PJM Chief Compliance Officer Chris O’Hara said in the statement that the RTO is already working on many of the improvements identified and will begin work on the remaining areas.

“The FERC audit report confirms not only PJM’s culture of compliance, but also PJM’s culture of teamwork,” he said. “This was an organization-wide effort, and we are proud of the results.”