ERCOT quietly dropped its latest seasonal assessment of resource adequacy on Tuesday, saying it has sufficient installed generating capacity to meet peak demand under normal system conditions this fall.
Had it not been for a press release from Gov. Greg Abbott’s office, the report might have gone unnoticed for days.
Abbott, a Republican who is seeking a third term, has been hammered by his Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke, over the ERCOT grid’s near collapse during the February 2021 winter storm and the slow pace of the market reforms.
With Abbott providing a heavy hand, the grid operator’s public communications have shriveled since the storm. ERCOT has not posted a public notice about the seasonal assessment (SARA) since May 2021. The media updates that accompanied the SARA were discontinued after the storm, although ERCOT’s interim CEO and its top regulator have twice appeared for short Q&A sessions.
But Abbott was quick to issue a release Tuesday and tweet an image of himself sitting at the same table with outgoing interim ERCOT CEO Brad Jones, incoming CEO Pablo Vegas, Public Utility Commission Chair Peter Lake and several others. Vegas will replace Jones on Oct. 1. (See ERCOT Names NiSource’s Vegas as New CEO.)
“Met with ERCOT and PUC to discuss the strong position of Texas’ electric grid heading into the fall season,” Abbott posted. “Our grid is stronger and more reliable because of bipartisan reforms we passed and began implementing last year.”
In the release linked from the tweet, Abbott said the state is continuing to monitor the grid’s reliability. It notes he discussed the grid operator’s updated planned outage scheduling process that “ensures Texas’ generational fleet has the necessary time to conduct maintenance operations.”
The shoulder season’s traditional maintenance period couldn’t come soon enough for thermal generators that have been running full bore this summer as part of ERCOT’s conservative operations posture. The grid operator has regularly kept more than 3 GW of operating reserves on the sidelines and dispatched older peaking units as reliability unit commitments.
Scott Bruns, Enverus | Enverus
Scott Bruns, director of markets for energy analytics firm Enverus, likened the situation to having a classic car in the garage.
“These units are typically older units that are not typically run or only run during the summertime when you need to support the system. And this summer, we ran these units much longer than previous years,” Bruns said during a webinar Wednesday on ERCOT’s summer performance. “I like to think of it as like your classic Camaro that you have for cruising. It runs well, but it has a limited number of miles left on that odometer and every time that you drive it, it’s more maintenance or repairs, and it just becomes more expensive.”
And not only expensive for the generation operators, but risky for the ERCOT system.
“So now, what we’re doing is we’re asking these Camaros to spend all the time in the driveway sitting there and idling, when you know that this is just increasing the risk on the system,” Bruns said. “We’re moving to this new future where more intermittent renewables are pulling onto the system and we’re asking all of these classic cars that are sitting out along the system to provide more of these baseload reliability services. And eventually, we’re going to have some issues.”
ERCOT staff does not appear to think that will be a problem. The fall SARA, covering October and November, indicates the system will have over 93 GW of resource capacity available during peak demand hours, more than enough to meet a projected high of 64.9 GW.
The grid operator expects to have 2.6 GW operational battery storage resources. However, they are not currently included in ERCOT’s capacity contribution for fall because they are not expected to provide sustained capacity for meeting system peak loads.
The report includes six risk scenarios that reflect alternative assumptions for peak demand, unplanned thermal outages and renewable output. One of the three elevated risk scenarios (low renewable output) and the most severe extreme risk scenario (high peak load, high unplanned thermal outages, extreme low wind output) would result in rotating outages.
Environmental and clean energy advocates are pushing New England to get off the gas.
In a new white paper and at a press briefing, several regional and national environmental groups challenged the approach taken by grid operator ISO-NE as industry stakeholders head into a high-profile policy forum in Vermont this week.
The groups, which include the Sierra Club, Conservation Law Foundation, Acadia Center and others, say that New England needs to quickly pivot to clean energy, and avoid throwing “good money after bad” by investing more in fossil fuel infrastructure.
The document lays out several clean grid reliability solutions that can be pushed to the front in the short term, including expanding residential demand programs, ramping up commercial and industrial demand response, and boosting energy efficiency.
And it calls on the region to, in the long term, better utilize the existing fleet of renewables, deploy “stacked” battery storage, and make “smart expansions” to the region’s transmission system.
Amid increasingly frequent warnings about the reliability of the region’s grid in winter, New England has clean options, the groups conclude.
“New England’s leaders, with the support of federal agencies like FERC, should be accelerating efforts to deploy alternatives to gas generation that take advantage of the region’s abundant clean energy resources,” the white paper says.
The policy paper was a response to a recent statement put out by ISO-NE, in which the grid operator took a different view.
In its “problem statement” ahead of the FERC forum in Vermont, ISO-NE emphasized that even though the region is moving toward a decarbonized grid in the long-run, natural gas remains a vital generating fuel in the near term. (See ISO-NE: Reliability Still Depends on Mass. LNG Import Terminal)
“Without adequate gas, the region may not be able to meet the demand for home heating and electricity — and, when reliability suffers, the clean energy transition suffers,” the grid operator wrote.
Though all involved agree that New England is moving toward weaning itself off gas in the long run, the grid operator’s message rankled some of its most frequent critics in the environmental and clean energy sectors, who blame ISO-NE for the region’s current reliability travails.
“For years we’ve been presented by the ISO with programs and policies that did not solve any of the perceived winter reliability challenges,” said Phelps Turner, senior attorney at the Conservation Law Foundation, at a press briefing Tuesday.
“It’s our view that if we had spent that time working on the clean energy transition, rather than constant annual fear-mongering, we would be in a much better spot today,” Turner said.
It’s a recurring message from environmental advocates, who feel that ISO-NE has moved far too slowly in following the directives of the New England states to shift to clean energy.
In that vein, the problem statement followed a familiar pattern, said Melissa Birchard, director of clean energy and grid transition at the Acadia Center: It led with identifying clean energy for the region’s long-term needs but then switched to a focus on fossil fuels in the short-term.
“We need to get off this merry-go-round,” Birchard said. “We can’t keep going through this every year and having these incredible costs that consumers are experiencing.”
Managing expectations for Thursday
The all-day forum scheduled by FERC for Thursday in Burlington, Vt., isn’t expected to produce consensus.
“They’re going to be discussing challenges and not solutions. What are the problems and how do we fix them?” said Mireille Bejjani, an organizer on the Fix the Grid campaign.
But getting a wide variety of speakers and guests in the same room could be a start to more productive conversations about how to move forward, said Caitlin Marquis, director of Advanced Energy Economy.
“We want to see a clear and transparent discussion about what the reliability risks are that we’re facing, specifically,” Marquis said. “What is the time frame of those risks? What are the grid’s needs that we need to be defining?”
In the natural gas sector, there are different hopes for the meeting.
A group of associations representing gas and oil generators and pipeline owners called on New England to build more pipelines and tweak market rules to give generators more certainty.
“We hope this forum will provide an avenue to discuss market design improvements and to develop sufficient natural gas infrastructure for power customers in addition to the manufacturers, businesses, and households that rely on natural gas to power their everyday needs,” the groups said in a statement.
The Planning Committee reviewed a $45 million capital budget proposal during its Tuesday meeting, a potential $3 million increase over current funding.
Nearly half of the suggested budget goes toward current applications and systems reliability, with $22 million allocated toward items such as dispatch tool enhancements, data analytics and cybersecurity. Spending on facilities and technology infrastructure would also increase to $12 million.
Less spending is being requested for application replacements and retrofits, which would reduce by a fifth down to $8 million, while new products and services as well as interregional coordination would remain static.
The spending plan will be reviewed by the Market Implementation Committee and Operating Committee this week and will be considered by the Finance Committee on Sept. 22 and 28. The Finance Committee will draft a recommendation letter to the PJM Board of Managers, which will consider approving the budget on Oct. 4.
Reserve Requirement Study Recommends Increasing FPR and IMR
The PC also received a presentation of the 2022 Reserve Requirement Study results, which recommends increasing both the forecast pool requirement (FPR) and installed reserve margin (IRM) compared to the 2021 study results. This year’s study results recommend an IRM of 14.9% for the 2023/24 delivery year, rather than the 14.8% favored in last year’s study for that year, and a FPR of 1.0930 next year, as opposed to 1.0901 recommended in the 2021 study.
The recommended IRM would fall to 14.8% in 2024/25 and continue down to 14.7% for the following two years. The FPR would decline to 1.0926 in 2024/25 and would sit at 1.0918 for the next two years.
2022 forecast pool requirement (FPR) waterfall chart | PJM
The study also proposed winter weekly reserve targets for the upcoming season, recommending 21% maximum monthly available reserves for December, 27% for January and 23% for February. The WWRT was set using RTO-aggregate outage data from the 2007/08 delivery year through last year.
The PC will take another look at the study in October, when it is scheduled to vote on the FPR, IRM and WWRT. From there, the Operating Committee is slated to vote on the WWRT in November, and the FPR and IRM are set to be voted on by the Markets and Reliability Committee and Members Committee in October through November. The PJM Board will consider final approval in December. The study’s assumptions were endorsed by the PC in June, and its load model selection was endorsed in August.
Tx Refunds Could Date Back to 2014
PJM could be required to refund transmission cost allocations dating to 2014 as a result of an appellate court ruling last month that remanded FERC decisions on two North Jersey transmission projects, PJM attorney Pauline Foley told stakeholders.
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals said FERC failed to explain why the solution-based distribution-factor analysis (DFAX) method should be used to assign the costs of two North Jersey transmission projects but not for a similar project in Artificial Island, partially supporting appeals by two merchant transmission operators. (See DC Circuit Faults FERC on Cost Allocation of NJ Transmission Projects.)
The case involves $1.3 billion in transmission upgrades authorized by PJM to address short-circuit problems between Public Service Electric and Gas’s Bergen and Linden switching stations and repairs to and around the utility’s Sewaren substation.
If FERC decides not to try to justify its distinction between the projects “we do not have a cost allocation to replace solution based DFAX for the Bergen-Linden and Sewaren projects,” said Foley, who noted the RTO has approved the allocations for the projects in late 2013 and early 2014. “Depending on what FERC determines, refunds could date back as far as 2014,” she said.
Annual Pre-qualification Window Opens for Competitive Planning Process
The annual one-month pre-qualification window for transmission developers seeking to submit projects under the competitive planning process has opened. Applications to qualify as designated entities can be submitted between Sept. 1 through Sept. 30 at ProposalWindow-Prequal@pjm.com.
To remain qualified, participants are required to confirm or update their pre-qualification information at least every three years. The Competitive Planner Tool now contains a new Pre-qualification Submission feature allowing form-based submissions and the ability to attach public or confidential versions of documents.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority last week issued an update on the potential challenges to routing transmission cables to the fleet of wind turbines planned off the New York coast.
NYSERDA has been working since August 2021 on the Offshore Wind Cable Corridor Constraints Assessment as part of the state’s drive to achieve a carbon-free power grid.
Five OSW projects totaling 4.5 GW are under development in New York; the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act mandates that 9 GW of OSW generation be in place by 2035.
The assessment is targeted for completion late this year. It seeks to:
document the environmental, technical and stakeholder constraints of potential undersea and overland cable corridors;
document the opportunities, concerns, impacts and risks of these corridors;
inform future policy actions to maximize benefits associated with the new OSW infrastructure;
minimize conflicts and impacts while following a timeline that reaches the 9-gigawatt goal by the 2035 deadline.
In its progress report submitted Sept. 1 to the New York Public Service Commission, NYSERDA said the Cable Working Group, which is performing the assessment, broke New York’s waters into four separate areas, each with different characteristics and potential constraints on installation, operation and maintenance of OSW cables.
Offshore, specific zones and subzones were identified with similar characteristics and constraints. On land, zone boundaries were drawn to optimize existing rights of way used for electric or gas transmission, elevated roadways and passenger rail lines in the densely constructed region.
In the South Shore Approach Area — the Atlantic Ocean south of Long Island — commercial fishing, including bottom trawling, recreational fishing and existing utilities (pipelines, telecommunications and transmission cables) present the most significant challenges to OSW cables, the assessment has determined.
In the Long Island Sound Approach Area — waters north and east of Long Island, from Block Island Sound to the East River — marine geology, commercial and recreational uses, aquatic resources and cultural concerns are flagged. There is, for example, a strong tidal currant, shallow zones, scour, boulder fields, a hard seabed, slopes greater than 10%, sensitive resources such as cold-water coral, shipwrecks and, in the westernmost end, anchorage areas.
In the New York Harbor Approach Area — the Upper and Lower harbors and the Hudson and East rivers — surface traffic is a major concern, with federally designated navigation channels and anchorage areas, heavy commercial shipping and passenger ferry traffic, narrowing waterways and the presence of pleasure craft.
In the Landfall and Overland Area — New York City and Long Island, and the places on both where undersea cables would make landfall and interconnect with the grid — the potential constraints are many and varied. Most prevalent is topography, as slopes exceeding 15% exist in all 25 zones designated on shore. There are potential environmental justice concerns in 23 of the 25 zones. Federal Highway Administration review and authorization would be required to site transmission lines along FHA-funded highways. Fish and wildlife habitats, public beaches, recreational fishing and eelgrass are other potential constraints.
The preferred approach would be to avoid negative impacts from all the potential constraints identified, but the assessment suggests steps to minimize or mitigate those impacts that cannot be avoided.
The assessment recommends that OSW cable routing incorporate accepted siting principles and industry experience but also notes that bringing 9 GW of power from the sea to land will require innovation in design, operation and maintenance that goes beyond standards set by previous projects and addresses the specific considerations for each site in New York.
NYSERDA issued a request for information Aug. 30, seeking feedback on whether the draft assessment accurately captures the most significant potential constraints and opportunities arising from the initiative. The comment period closes Oct. 14.
MISO successfully opened its wholesale markets to electric storage resources last week in compliance with FERC Order 841, the grid operator said Tuesday.
Effective Sept. 1, storage resources can participate in the RTO’s energy and operating reserves markets as supply or demand. MISO said the resources have the “operational characteristics that support reliability and resilience as the industry continues to transition the resource fleet.”
“We are excited to see this space grow with increasing member interest and participation, particularly as we continue to adapt to the accelerating resource transition,” Jessica Lucas, executive director of system operations, said in a statement. “With the introduction of electric storage resources to our market portfolio, we will continue to position MISO’s grid and its members as the grid of the future.”
Staff has developed a method that implements new storage-specific offer parameters required by FERC in a way that recognizes their unique physical and operational characteristics. The technology earned MISO its first patent last year from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
The RTO said the participation model’s near-term benefits are “modest due to the small volume of storage resources.”
“However, the new model positions MISO ahead of the increased storage participation anticipated with higher penetration of renewables and distributed energy resources over the next five to 10 years,” it said.
MISO debuted the storage participation on its legacy market platform. It had originally requested that it be given until 2025 to fully incorporate storage on its new market platform. However, FERC ordered the grid operator to build the participation models on both of its market platforms. (See MISO: No Choice but to Double Up on 841 Compliance.)
The RTO said that that integrating storage offers into its markets would be better served under its new market platform and argued that being forced to put together two participation models to meet the deadline would stretch its resources.
CEO John Bear wrote to FERC in May to support a deferral, saying a 2022 launch could delay and “severely” compromise MISO’s “efforts to address growing reliability and resilience concerns and meet members’ carbon-reduction goals.”
The RTO reported over the summer that it was testing its new energy-storage participation software. Its electric storage model uses eight commitment statuses, including injecting, withdrawing or toggling between the two. Resources can also designate themselves as emergency injecting, emergency withdrawing, available, not participating or on outage.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Sept. 1 announced $6.5 million in funding to support research of innovative insurance policies or products that will promote the adoption of clean technologies.
The Insurance Innovation for Climate-Technology Solutions program will target insurance for residential and commercial renewable energy products that will both develop new business models and enable future climate technology solutions and be funded through the state’s 10-year, $5.3 billion Clean Energy Fund, according to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).
A new program administrator will be awarded up to $1.5 million to create the program by working with insurance management experts to develop, fund and test innovative risk models that better address climate change. The remaining $5 million will be used for competitive grants expected to be announced in 2023.
The program will help overcome barriers to bringing new insurance products to the market in the face of increasingly costly extreme weather events. It is another step by the Hochul administration in support of New York’s 2019 climate and energy legislation, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), the sweeping climate and energy initiative that calls for 70% of the state’s electricity to be generated through renewable sources by 2030 (70×30) and 100% through zero-emission means by 2040.
Many businesses have significantly re-evaluated their risk model projections to factor in the potential costs of coverage associated with climate change, especially the natural disasters that seem to be coming with greater frequency and cost. New York estimates that Hurricane Sandy caused $19 billion in damages and lost economic activity in New York City alone.
State Sen. Neil Breslin, an Albany Democrat who chairs the Senate Insurance Committee, said in a news release that the Innovation for Climate-Technology Solutions program “is critical for economic stability” because it will “enable businesses to better manage risk and prepare for the negative impacts climate change may have on them.”
NYISO Climate Vulnerabilities
NYISO recently assessed the impacts that climate change would have on the resilience and reliability of New York’s power grid.
The study found that climate disruptions could significantly reduce resource output during the winter, replacing fossil fuels would make meeting peak electricity demands more difficult, and better planning would make identified vulnerabilities more manageable.
Specifically, NYISO found that utility-scale battery storage would fill many of the reliability gaps created when carbon-fueled power generation is taken offline, which tracks closely with recent findings from Potomac Economics’ “Outlook” review.
Greater transmission capacity also will be needed to maximize renewable energy access, while dispatchable emission-free resources, such as green hydrogen, will be needed to act as load failsafes when intermittent renewable generators are taken offline because of meteorological disruptions.
Application Process
NYSERDA will competitively select a program administrator and is accepting applications from qualified organizations through Oct. 12. Applicants are asked to demonstrate economic benefits, and their proposals will be evaluated by a scoring committee.
Applicants must show how they can promote the research and development needed to bring new insurance products and services to market, including soliciting new insurance ideas, managing the development and growth of the program, and reducing risk for climate technology services.
NERC has not yet issued its annual Winter Reliability Assessment, but it is already clear that it is concerned about the electric industry’s readiness to withstand severe and unpredictable weather this winter.
“We’re requesting early adoption of some of our cold weather standards,” said John Moura, director of NERC’s reliability assessment and performance analysis, at the start of the ERO’s annual winter preparation webinar on Thursday.
John Moura, NERC | NERC
Moura said that in 2021 the industry experienced 70 hours of unplanned load shedding because grid operators had no other options.
“This is a trend we have seen over the last couple of years: more times where the system is under duress and has to initiate energy alerts [that] has led to operator-initiated load shed,” he said. “This is kind of a trend that we really need to reverse.”
A NERC analysis of outages from 2013 through 2021 shows that all generation types other than nuclear have experienced an increase in forced outages during cold weather, he said. That includes traditional baseload coal and gas plants, said Moura, adding that gas storage is currently at the low end of the five-year average and coal inventories are lower than they should be at some power plants, making them vulnerable to railroad worker strikes or other events that could reduce resupply.
NERC is urging “cross industry engagement” to ensure gas and coal plants do not experience fuel shortages this winter.
“Even if we were to winterize all our units, and we had perfect reliability, we will still have in some places concerns with the availability of fuel and the reliability either of the pipeline system or other energy delivery systems. I think that that only can be fixed … when we work and plan together,” Moura said.
Mark Olson, NERC | NERC
Mark Olson, manager of reliability assessment at NERC, said the organization will soon release a cold weather alert with recommendations for this winter. He added that “coal stockpiles have been at a historic low level.”
Explaining that the goal of Thursday’s webinar was “to help get the ball moving” before NERC publishes its 2022/23 Winter Reliability Assessment in November, Olson acknowledged that the industry is already preparing for winter.
“I know there’s a lot being done, and so we’re not really initiating action here as much as we’re emphasizing and sharing the insights from the past,” he said, acknowledging that NERC is aware that “generators are taking steps and need to continue those steps to be proactive and prepare for the winter.”
Olson also said that “grid operators need to prepare and do drills for cold weather plans and for things like load shedding so that they can be efficient and minimize disruption as much as possible to end users while preserving the reliability of the overall system.”
David Lemmons, Greybeard Compliance Services | NERC
Two areas of special concern are the MISO footprint and Texas, he said.
In MISO, “our preliminary data indicates there’s about 7 GW of coal generation and 1 GW of nuclear generation that has retired from last winter. And that’s led to a declining reserve margin,” he said, which could become a serious problem in an extremely cold winter.
David Lemmons, an independent analyst and co-founder of Greybeard Compliance Services, stressed the importance of detailed information sharing and close cooperation between generators and grid operators, particularly during extraordinary weather events.
Examples North and South
Webinar participants also heard about extreme weather preparations from Canada’s largest electric utility, Hydro-Quebec, and El Paso Electric. Both utilities experienced severe weather-related service disruptions in the past and had to develop practices and technologies that have enabled them to function in extreme weather.
Anne-Marie Fournier, a regulatory affairs expert and reliability coordinator at Hydro-Quebec, said annual reliability assessments that begin in May have helped the company develop strategies to deal with potential weather catastrophes when demand normally peaks.
“A very important part of preparing for winter and improving the way we prepare is by looking back at how we have performed,” she said.
“We learn a lot from past events, and sometimes we learn the hard way,” she said. “That was the case with the 1998 ice storm that hit south of Quebec. We received more than 3 inches of freezing rain spread over five days. That freezing rain was very heavy and made 24,000 utility poles and 900 steel poles collapse.”
Anne-Marie Fournier, Hydro Quebec | NERC
Nearly 1.4 million customers lost power, for up to four weeks in some areas. Montreal was without power for two days, crippling the metro transit system and the water filtration system as well, she said. Then temperatures dropped into a “deep freeze,” she said, leaving most customers without heat because homes and businesses are heated electrically.
The company has since built “anti-cascading” transmission towers to limit the extent of line damage if a tower collapses, built additional lines and installed de-icers on certain lines. Hydro generators are located inside heated buildings with backup auxiliary heating; spillways are heated electrically; and dams are designed to withstand ice formations.
Fournier said the annual spring assessment moves to a load forecast in July and an updated inventory and “formal identification” of all available internal resources in August. Another resource adequacy check, including potential power imports and exports, gets under way in September, as well as the running of several scenarios simulating the coming winter’s projected peak demand.
In October, a planning team validates available interruptible loads and the amount of power available that those customers could provide the company if needed. Final equipment checks and operator training happens in November, she said, before demand begins to surge in early December.
“During the peak period, we have a cross-functional team that meets daily to make sure everything is handled. And this team is constituted of people from the transmission side, the generation side and the distribution side. Our teams of meteorologists and load forecasters are very busy also at wintertime as they sometimes monitor load and weather closely for 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” she said.
Kyle Olson, director of generation and asset management at El Paso Electric, said a major reason the company survived the February 2021 storm is that it did not do well in a major storm 10 years earlier.
That storm knocked out one of the company’s aging power plants, leading to rolling blackouts. The utility turned to Black and Veatch for recommendations on how to improve its performance.
“We invested over $4.5 million in freeze protection upgrades at what were only two local plants at the time. These upgrades included heat tracing insulation and other winterization tools,” he said.
The company also developed hot and cold winterization checklists, procedures and preventative maintenance strategies, and “new design criteria” for construction of new power plants capable of operating at temperatures as low as -10 degrees Fahrenheit and as high as 105 F.
“We also factored in wind and humidity. It tends to be the high wind and the humidity that ends up biting us during the cold events more than just the actual cold temperatures,” Olson added.
In the decade between the two storms, the company replaced its coal generation with gas turbines, the newest of which it plans to run on 30% hydrogen by 2045 through an agreement with turbine maker Mitsubishi Power. The utility is also aiming to build large solar arrays backed up by Mitsubishi gas turbines.
Olson said the company installed freeze-protection equipment for critical controls at its new gas turbines plants. That included the use of “O’Brien Boxes,” protective, often heated, enclosures designed to keep controls, instruments and even tubing warm and operable at low temperatures.
The company has opted to build simple cycle gas turbine plants rather than the more efficient combined cycles, which require water heated by the waste heat of the gas turbines to run secondary steam turbines.
“We are in a desert,” Olson explained, “but also because [simple cycles] perform well during severe winter events,” such as the 2021 storm when temperatures in the region fell to 14 F.
The company’s newest plant has dual-fuel capability, he said, another strategy to make certain the plant can stay online during emergencies.
The company also contracts for more than 600 MW from the Palo Verde nuclear plant in western Arizona. “During the 2021 storm, Palo Verde was essential to meeting our customer loads and avoiding price spiking,” said Olson.
Four Arizona electricity providers have joined seven Pacific Northwest entities to support the next phase of SPP’s Markets+ development.
SPP announced Tuesday that Arizona Electric Power Cooperative, Arizona Public Service, Salt River Project and Tucson Electric Power said in an Aug. 31 letter that they intended to work with the RTO to build a Western market that includes “both a workable governance framework and a robust market design.”
“This will be an important milestone that will enable us to collectively move forward to the next phase,” the entities said.
“Adding the desert southwest region to the development of this market adds more value for all participants, and we very much appreciate the contributions from these entities thus far” SPP CEO Barbara Sugg said in a statement.
The four companies serve more than 20 GW of combined peak demand. The Pacific Northwest group accounts for 50 GW of combined peak demand.
SPP plans to have the Markets+ draft service offerings, based on stakeholder input, available for comment by the end of September; the final service offering is scheduled to be distributed Nov. 18. Participants will make financially binding commitments in the first quarter of 2023, at which point the market protocols and tariff language can be drafted.
Markets+ is a conceptual bundle of services that centralize day-ahead and real-time unit commitment and dispatch, provide hurdle-free transmission service across its footprint and pave the way for the reliable integration of a rapidly growing fleet of renewable generation. It is designed for utilities that aren’t ready to pursue full RTO membership.
CAISO CEO Elliot Mainzer said the state’s grid is facing its biggest challenge yet this summer as record temperatures bake large areas of California in a prolonged heat wave this week.
“This multiday event is going to get much more intense,” Mainzer said in a call with reporters Sunday. “We’re facing energy deficits between 2,000 to 4000 MW for tomorrow, and the highest likelihood of rotating outages that we’ve seen so far.
“As a result, we are going to need significant additional consumer demand reduction during the hours of 4 to 10 p.m. and access to all of the tools that the state and the utilities have established for conditions like this in order to avoid broader interruptions of service. So, it is game on and time for continued focus.”
The National Weather Service predicted high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the state’s Central Valley of up to 115 degrees Fahrenheit, a level of extreme heat more often associated with areas such as Death Valley. The forecast for Sacramento called for high temperatures on Monday of 112 F and 113 F on Tuesday.
In Southern California, home to 24 million residents, Downtown Los Angeles would see temperatures of over 100 degrees on Monday and again on Thursday, the weather service said.
Even San Francisco, normally cool in the summer, was expected to top out at 88 F on Monday and 87 F on Tuesday. The weather service said parts of the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area would be much hotter, with some cities nearing 105 degrees.
The heat will continue throughout most of this week, the weather service said.
On Monday, CAISO issued a level 1 energy emergency alert (EEA), a signal that the “real-time analysis shows all resources are in use or committed for use, and energy deficiencies are expected. Market participants are encouraged to offer supplemental energy and ancillary service bids. Consumers are encouraged to conserve energy.”
CAISO is predicting demand of 51,145 MW on Tuesday. That would beat the record of 50,270 MW from July 2006.
Though several large fires were burning in Northern and Southern California, none had impacted the transmission system.
Mainzer said the ISO was monitoring for new wildfires with the potential to derate high-voltage lines and limit imported hydroelectricity from the Pacific Northwest, an essential supply source for California during summer months.
A massive wildfire in southern Oregon severely derated the Pacific AC and DC interties during a Western heat wave last July, shutting off power from hydroelectric dams in Washington and Oregon to California.
Extreme Weather
This week’s extended period of record heat is the latest in a series of extreme weather events that have troubled California and other areas of the West in recent years. A heat dome over the usually mild, rainy Pacific Northwest in June 2021 pushed temperatures to 115 F in Portland, Ore., and 107 F in Seattle, with some inland areas hitting 118 F.
West-wide heat waves and supply constraints struck the Western grid in August and September 2020, causing CAISO to order rolling blackouts in mid-August of that year and to declare energy emergencies over Labor Day weekend. The August blackouts affected more than 2 million residents for periods ranging from roughly 30 minutes to three hours.
Since then, CAISO has interconnected several thousand megawatts of lithium-ion batteries to its grid, almost all with four-hour discharge capabilities. The batteries are intended to make up for shortfalls during hot summer evenings and have performed according to expectations so far. How the batteries will perform in more extreme conditions is being tested this week.
Until now, California’s summer has been relatively mild this year with the exception of a less severe heat wave in mid-August, when CAISO issued a “flex alert” asking customers to reduce usage.
In anticipation of hotter weather this week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday proclaimed a state of emergency aimed at temporarily increasing energy production and reducing demand in response to an extreme heat wave forecast to hit the state this weekend. (See Newsom Declares Emergency as Heat Stresses Calif. Grid.)
Newsom’s emergency proclamation will allow gas-fired power plants to generate additional electricity by loosening air quality requirements and restrictions on fuel use. The proclamation relaxes restrictions on the use of backup generators from 2 to 10 p.m. on days in which CAISO has declared a level 2 or 3 EEA. Ships berthed at California ports also won’t be required to use shore power during such times.
“We are anticipating this extreme heat to be of a length and duration the likes of which we haven’t experienced in some time,” Newsom said in announcing the declaration.
Expanding public transportation and reducing industrial emissions are keys to Maryland meeting its climate goals, the Maryland Climate Change Commission Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Working Group was told Aug. 23.
“The best thing we can do if we want to reduce greenhouse gases is get people on transit,” Maryland Transit Administration CEO Holly Arnold said.
At present, there are more than 1 million weekly riders on the “core system,” a number Arnold said can be increased by making the system frequent, reliable and easy to use.
Last fall, MTA launched the $43 million Fast Forward program, which seeks to improve service reliability, reduce travel times, and increase safety and access. The program includes more dedicated bus lanes, real-time bus tracking and — starting later this year — real-time rail tracking and information on bus crowding.
Most significantly, MTA is also transitioning to zero-emission buses, committing not to buy any more diesel buses after fiscal 2023 and seeking to make 50% of the fleet zero-emission by 2030. The regional transit plan’s goal is a 95% zero-emission fleet by 2045, but “it will be a lot of work to accomplish this transition,” Arnold said.
She cited concerns that battery electric buses may not be appropriate for all locations, saying, “We have to make sure it doesn’t run out of charge in the middle of a route.”
In a pilot project, MTA will get seven battery electric buses and five overhead chargers early next year. The agency is working with Baltimore Gas and Electric on infrastructure. MTA has a six-year $4 billion capital budget for this and other projects, Arnold said.
Cement Leading Source of Industrial Emissions
The Mitigation Working Group also heard a presentation from the University of Maryland School of Public Policy’s Center for Global Sustainability (CGS), which is conducting a study due to the governor Oct. 1 on the economic impact of regulating greenhouse gas emissions from the manufacturing sector. The study was required by the 2016 amendments to the state Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act.
The sector presents a unique challenge for the state’s emission-reduction goals, even though it is not a major component of emissions, said Ryna Yiyun Cui, an assistant research professor at CGS.
Following the 2011 closure of RG Steel’s Sparrows Point plant, the state’s biggest industrial emitter of greenhouse gas is the Lehigh Hanson cement plant in Union Bridge, followed by Holcim, a building materials manufacturer in Hagerstown, according to Kathleen Kennedy, a postdoctoral associate at CGS.
CGS’ Jared Williams said the greatest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in this subsector is in the manufacture and mixing of cement, specifically, the production of clinker, the primary source of process emissions generated in cement manufacturing.
“Substituting clinker with decarbonated materials reduces process emissions from cement manufacturing,” he said. “Replacement of ordinary portland cement with portland limestone cement [PLC] reduces emissions and is also less costly.” Limestone cement may dominate the cement market as early as next year, he said.
Lehigh Hanson announced in July it will transition to limestone cement at the Union Bridge plant by January 2023, which is expected to cut its emissions by 18%. Holcim plans to switch to PLC after the installation of new equipment, with expected reductions of 11%.
Further reductions will come from Lehigh’s plan to switch from coal to natural gas by 2028. Hydrogen is a potential long-term alternative fuel for cement manufacturers but requires further research.
Because process emissions from cement manufacturing are unavoidable, carbon capture, utilization and storage may be needed to address the final 50% of emissions to get to net zero.
Industrial greenhouse gas emissions in Maryland were reduced by more than 30% from 2006 to 2020, Cui said. The main reduction has been in the electricity and road transport sectors, although they remain the major emitters in the state. Industrial processes using fossil fuels constituted a little less than 10% of the state’s emissions in 2020, a slight decline since 2006.
Kennedy added that the manufacturing sector’s contribution to state GDP has stayed relatively constant around $20 billion, or 6 to 7% of the total, over the past few years. Manufacturing employment — about 120,000, or 3 to 4% of the state’s total jobs — has also stayed fairly constant recently. The economically significant computer and electronics sector is responsible for a low percentage of energy consumption. On the other hand, food, which is responsible for a relatively large proportion of energy consumption, is not a particularly high emitter because it uses mainly natural gas and electricity, as opposed to heavy industries that still use coal.
The 30% decline in the manufacturing subsector’s emissions was driven primarily by reduced fuel combustion after RG Steel shut down, Kennedy said. But “process and product use emissions” have gone up since 2017; by 2020, these constituted 69% of total industrial emissions, although they have declined in absolute terms by about 25% since 2006, she said. Emissions are still growing in cement, up 21% since 2006, and ozone-depleting substances or substitutes are also up 42%. Union Bridge’s emissions have been growing because of increased production.
Scott Bruns, Enverus | Enverus
