CARMEL, Ind. — MISO this week said its future holds exponential renewable growth, free-falling carbon emissions and a stubbornly persistent capacity risk, requiring a slew of new capacity.
The pronouncements come from the initial findings of MISO’s annual Regional Resource Assessment (RRA). The grid operator said that by using publicly available utility plans and its own assumptions, it expects the system will draw 30% of its annual energy from renewables by 2027 and approach 60% by 2041.
Also by 2041, the footprint will collectively decarbonize 80% from peak 2005 levels, MISO predicted. Renewables currently make up about 13% of the RTO’s resource portfolio.
“That is significant because this study is basically bringing together our members’ plans … and showing what the footprint will look like,” MISO engineer Aditya Jayam Prabhakar said during a Resource Adequacy Subcommittee meeting Wednesday.
Jayam Prabhakar said the risk of a capacity shortfall will persist throughout the fleet transition, “highlighting the immediate importance of coordinated resource planning.”
The grid operator said it found a need for members to expand nameplate capacity by 100 GW by 2030 to meet their combined carbon-reduction plans and stay within safe reserve margins. By 2041, MISO may need a 200-GW expansion in nameplate capacity.
The RTO also said it expects average capacity factors for operational natural gas and coal units to decline between 10 and 30% over the next 20 years. It said that even if current company resource planning is implemented on time, a systemwide shortfall is possible beginning in 2027.
Jayam Prabhakar added that the assessment relies on “highly evolving” information and characterized MISO’s analysis as a “guided tour,” as opposed to a deep exploration of future possibilities.
MISO did not include generation retirements beyond what is already publicly announced. Michelle Bloodworth, of coal lobby group America’s Power, said she thought the RTO was underestimating thermal generation retirements.
“Like all studies, the results of the RRA are sensitive to inputs and assumptions. This is but one possible scenario in a quickly evolving landscape,” Policy Studies Engineer Hilary Brown said.
MISO future capacity need projections | MISO
She said MISO is notably missing some intermediate resource planning information from members around their 2030 greenhouse gas emissions goals. “Many companies have defined carbon-reduction milestones around 2030, leading to a possible large, single-year buildout.”
Responding to stakeholders’ questions, Brown said MISO has not yet included the torrent of renewable energy development that will possibly take place under the recently signed Inflation Reduction Act. She said the impacts under the law will be contemplated in next year’s assessment.
“We’re going to see some pretty crazy changes next year in how companies react to the Inflation Reduction Act,” Southern Renewable Energy Association Executive Director Simon Mahan said.
Brown said a “one-for-one capacity replacement” is not sufficient when replacing thermal generation with intermittents. She said that while MISO foresees a deepening capacity shortfall, members’ plans could change in reaction to MISO’s Planning Resource Auctions (PRAs).
Months after MISO’s capacity auction shortfall, several utilities unveiled deferrals on coal retirements.
WEC Energy Group and Alliant Energy have announced they are postponing retirement plans for multiple coal plants because of concerns over grid reliability. Likewise, Ameren Missouri is expected to defer the planned Sept. 1 retirement of its 1.2-GW Rush Island power plant until 2025. Two Montana Public Service Commissioners recently called on state lawmakers to do everything in their power to keep the Colstrip generating facility operating to prevent freezing deaths this winter. Colstrip is owned by Talen Montana, Puget Sound Energy, Portland General Electric, Avista, PacifiCorp and NorthWestern Energy.
On the other end of the spectrum, Clean Grid Alliance in mid-August saluted Illinois, Iowa and Indiana in particular as jurisdictions in the MISO footprint where renewable energy development is blossoming.
The alliance said Indiana’s 6.3 GW of solar projects in development currently ranks third in the nation; Illinois’ nearly 8 GW of operating wind, solar and storage capacity currently ranks sixth; and Iowa leads with 207 MW of land-based wind power coming online in the second quarter of 2022.
CGA said the nine states in MISO’s Midwestern region combined have 12 GW of clean power capacity in advanced stages of development.
Multiple stakeholders said MISO did not reveal enough about its modeling methods and data sources for others to fact-check its resource analysis.
The RTO plans to publish the full 2022 RRA in November.
Stakeholders Ask MISO for Midyear Capacity Accreditation
Disappearing reserves in its capacity auction has sparked a new stakeholder proposal at MISO.
MidAmerican Energy’s Dennis Kimm asked that MISO accredit new planning resources that enter the picture after the planning year is underway.
MISO doesn’t currently permit new generation to convert its output into accredited capacity in the middle of a planning year. New generators currently must wait until preparation for next year’s capacity auction begins before they become eligible to receive zonal resource credits.
Several stakeholders said they supported the proposal and requested MISO create new tariff language immediately.
Alliant’s James Niccolls said that, “frankly, it’s hard to explain” MISO’s current practice to his company’s leadership and customers.
“There’s obviously widespread stakeholder support on this,” RASC Chair Kari Hassler said.
Meanwhile, stakeholders again requested that MISO publish more data ahead of its PRAs on generator suspensions and granted participation exclusions. Some have said MISO should publish a line item on generation that’s likely to be unavailable in the auction and give members a better idea of the footprint’s expected margins before the auction window opens.
The California Air Resources Board on Thursday adopted regulations that will require all new cars sold in the state to be zero-emission or plug-in hybrid by 2035 — a move the agency described as historic and trailblazing.
The CARB board voted unanimously to approve the regulations, called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II).
“This is the most important and most transformative action that CARB has ever taken,” board member Daniel Sperling said. Sperling, who is a founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, cast his vote by saying “super aye.”
“We can solve this climate crisis if we focus on the big, bold steps necessary to cut pollution. California now has a groundbreaking, world-leading plan to achieve 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement.
ACC II will require car manufacturers to provide for sale in California an increasing percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year. The new regulation starts with a 35% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirement for model year 2026, increasing to 68% in 2030 and reaching 100% in 2035.
The rules build on the state’s Advanced Clean Cars regulation, which was first adopted in 2012 and is still in effect. The current regulation’s ZEV sales requirement tops off at 22% for model year 2025.
In addition to ZEV requirements, the ACC II regulation includes a low-emission vehicle (LEV) component aimed at reducing tailpipe emissions of gasoline-powered cars.
Seventeen states have adopted California’s Advanced Clean Car standards as allowed under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act. Many of those states are now expected to consider adoption of ACC II.
CARB must apply for and receive a waiver from the EPA to enforce the regulations.
Reducing GHG
Transportation is California’s single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, according to CARB. ACC II is expected to reduce passenger vehicle GHG emissions by 50% or more by 2040.
Environmental groups commended CARB for adopting ACC II.
“The standards passed today move California to the head of the pack in the race for clean transportation,” Fred Krupp, president of Environmental Defense Fund, said in a statement. “Thanks to the state’s leadership, California — and our entire country — are now speeding toward a safer and healthier future with no tailpipe pollution.”
But some people who commented during the board meeting were concerned about the impact of the ZEV requirements on small businesses and farmers. One farmer asked CARB staff how she is supposed to install a Tesla charging station in the middle of her cornfield.
ACC II applies to new vehicle sales and will not impact vehicles already on the road.
One speaker at the board meeting predicted that as a result of the regulation, drivers will hang on to their internal-combustion engine vehicles longer, bringing in more business for mechanics.
Infrastructure Is Key
CARB board member Barbara Riordan cautioned that building sufficient EV charging infrastructure will be key to the success of the program.
While substantial funding has been earmarked for EV infrastructure, “it has to be implemented,” Riordan said.
“A lot of people won’t invest in an electric vehicle unless they can be assured that the infrastructure is there to keep it charged, to keep it going,” she said.
The ZEV sales requirements of ACC II apply to cars, pickup trucks and SUVs. Plug-in hybrid (PHEVs), full battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles count toward an automaker’s requirement. PHEVs must have an all-electric range of at least 50 miles under real-world driving conditions. Automakers will be able to meet up to 20% of their ZEV requirement with PHEVs.
Battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles will need a minimum range of 150 miles to qualify under the program. In addition, they must include fast-charging ability, come with a charging cord and meet new warranty and durability requirements.
The Western Power Pool’s board on Tuesday approved a tariff to implement its Western Resource Adequacy Program, an initiative intended to ensure that participants across much of the Western Interconnection have sufficient capacity amid a changing resource mix.
WPP said it is planning to file the WRAP tariff with FERC by Aug. 31, followed by a 30-day comment period.
The program, which already has 26 participants in an area reaching from British Columbia to Arizona and east to South Dakota, is the “first region-wide reliability planning and compliance program in the history of the West,” WPP said in a news release Wednesday.
The tariff approval “is another major milestone leading us closer to making this first-of-its-kind program a reality,” WPP CEO Sarah Edmonds said in the news release. “Resource adequacy is an urgent and immediate challenge, especially in the West, and requires this type of regionwide approach to address it.”
Last week the WRAP’s Resource Adequacy Participant Committee (RAPC), consisting of a representative from each participant, also approved the draft tariff. The 74-page document lays out the program’s governance structure, including the roles of the RAPC, a Committee of State Representatives (COSR) and a Program Review Committee.
It describes in detail the program’s two main “time horizons,” a forward-showing program requiring participants to show they have sufficient capacity months in advance of summer and winter peaks, and an operational program, focused on the allocation of resources in real-time and day-ahead time frames.
And it addresses issues such as participation rates, financial penalties for resource deficiencies and failures to deliver, and dispute resolution.
Since 2020, WPP has been developing the WRAP, an initiative conceived to address concerns that Northwest utilities have been increasingly and unknowingly drawing on the same shrinking pool of reliability resources. But interest in the effort spread quickly to other areas of the West. In a move that signified its expanding reach across the Western Interconnection, the Northwest Power Pool rebranded itself as the Western Power Pool earlier this year.
The WPP is slated to launch a “nonbinding” iteration of the WRAP in the third quarter of this year and a binding phase with penalties sometime in 2024. Initially, the absence of enforcement and penalties will shield the program from FERC oversight, giving members additional time to iron out wrinkles and finalize its design.
WPP last year selected SPP to develop and operate the technical aspects of the WRAP, providing the market’s forward-showing functions, modeling and system analytics, and real-time operations.
Some in the West have speculated the WRAP could serve as a springboard for the eventual development of an RTO, one that would compete with CAISO’s stalled regionalization efforts and the ISO’s well-established Western Energy Imbalance Market. SPP has been using its new foothold in the West through the WRAP to build interest in its Markets+ program, a collection of services that stops short of a full RTO but could eventually develop into one. (See SPP Continues to Build on Markets+ Offering.)
Anticipating possible future requirements, WPP has already moved to restructure its governance and prepare to adopt some elements of an RTO, such as the appointment of an independent board of directors. WPP also established the COSR to ensure that utility regulators have a voice in discussions related to the WRAP.
The tariff appears to address the eventuality, saying: “Subject to the limitations and prohibitions imposed under Section 3.4 of this tariff, if the Board of Directors votes to file at FERC to expand the WRAP to include market optimization or transmission planning services, WPP will initiate a formal process with COSR and other stakeholders to conduct a full review of governance structures and procedures, including the role of states.”
‘Collaboration and Transparency’
The WPP published the WRAP draft tariff last month, inviting stakeholders to comment during a public webinar on July 25. Feedback from that session was incorporated into the updated draft that the board approved.
“Throughout this process we have remained committed to collaboration and transparency,” Edmonds said. “For three years, we have worked with regulators, participants and stakeholders to shape the program. We’ve listened to stakeholder voices, embraced their comments, and refined the program design and the tariff itself to get to a solution supported by all participants.”
FERC’s approval of the tariff would allow WPP to set rates and terms of participation and to make governance changes.
“WPP is hoping for a final order from FERC giving approval by the end of this year,” the group said in the news release. “The WRAP team also intends to confirm commitments from potential participants for the next phase of their participation by mid-December.”
WRAP Stage 1 participants include Arizona Public Service, Avangrid, Avista, Black Hills Energy, Basin Electric Power Cooperative, Bonneville Power Administration, Calpine, Chelan PUD, Clatskanie PUD, Douglas PUD, Eugene Water and Electric Board, Grant PUD, Idaho Power, NorthWestern Energy, NV Energy, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, Powerex, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, Snohomish PUD, Shell Energy, Salt River Project, Tacoma Power, Turlock Irrigation District and The Energy Authority, which is representing seven Washington and Oregon publicly owned utilities.
With its 2035 greenhouse gas reduction goal in sight, the state of Oregon is looking for ways to reach that same target in 2030 instead.
The state is analyzing two pathways. One would rely on electrification to hit the goal of reducing GHG emissions 45% below 1990 levels by 2030.
The second pathway would maximize the use of alternative fuels — RNG and hydrogen in particular — with some electrification actions included. This so-called hybrid scenario was developed because relying on RNG and hydrogen alone would not be enough to reach the GHG reduction target, according to projections.
The alternatives were discussed last week during a meeting of the Oregon Global Warming Commission. The OGWC is working with the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) and consultants on a plan called the Transformational Integrated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, or TIGHGER. (See Oregon Effort Seeks to ‘Close the Gap’ on GHG Goals.)
The commission plans to complete a Roadmap to 2035 report by the end of the year, in time to submit to the state’s 2023 legislature. The report could recommend implementing the electric or hybrid alternative, or some combination of the two.
Accelerated Goal
TIGHGER initially set 2035 as the target date for reducing GHG emissions 45% relative to 1990 levels. The target is an interim step toward the state’s long-term GHG reduction goal of 80% by 2050.
But an analysis found that the state would hit the 2035 target through programs and regulations already adopted and under development.
“That was great to see,” said OGWC Chair Catherine Macdonald. “Because we found out that we are on track to meet our goal for 2035 by 2035, we are looking at an accelerated goal.”
Efforts that will contribute to meeting the target in 2035 include last year’s HB 2021, which aims to reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation 80% by 2030, 90% by 2035 and 100% by 2040. There’s also the Climate Protection Program from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, which sets a declining cap on GHG emissions from fossil fuels used in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial settings. (See Oregon Adopts GHG Cap-and-invest Program.)
With those two major programs being implemented, remaining steps to reduce GHG emissions will be relatively small in scope, said Alan Zelenka, assistant director for planning and innovation at ODOE.
Additional steps to reduce GHGs might include heat pump installation in new and existing buildings, all new electric vehicle sales by 2035, a shift of drivers to car-sharing and public transit, and a reduction in food waste.
“It’s a combination of all these little projects that make up the ability to … meet the goal,” Zelenka said.
Rating Cost Effectiveness
The scenario analysis included development of marginal abatement cost curves, which rank GHG-reduction actions by their cost effectiveness.
For both the electrification and hybrid scenarios, new commercial building codes, followed by a transition in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, were found to be the most cost-effective measures. Residential and commercial building retrofits were the least cost-effective actions.
Zelenka said that under a least-cost planning approach, the most cost-effective measures would be implemented first. By the time the least cost-effective actions are implemented, their costs may have come down, he added.
But when developing a final ranking of GHG reduction actions, officials may consider co-benefits, such as job creation or healthcare cost reductions. OGWC will further discuss co-benefits next month.
IRA Impact
Some meeting participants said the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed into law this month could improve the cost-effectiveness of certain GHG reduction actions. The new law will provide incentives for energy-efficient home retrofits and electric home appliances.
“That’s definitely very relevant to how we’re framing costs,” said commission member Nora Apter.
Zelenka said the impact of the IRA could be included in updates to the analysis.
During a public comment period, Karen Harrington with The Climate Reality Project’s Portland chapter said she was thrilled that OGWC was looking at an accelerated 2030 target. But Harrington questioned the commission’s consideration of the alternative fuels-focused hybrid scenario.
“To get us there, we have to look at all-electric,” Harrington said. “The hybrid system isn’t going to get us there.”
Commission member Tom Potiowsky responded by saying it’s “more robust” to keep the hybrid scenario in the analysis. And technology may change as time goes on, he said.
“As we go down the road, these things may become more … economically viable alternatives for us to use to reduce emissions,” Potiowsky said.
Serious cybersecurity vulnerabilities continue to plague U.S. critical infrastructure — including the power grid — despite their owners’ commitment to protecting their assets, according to a report released this week by the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
The report was prepared by the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC), a body of leaders from the telecommunications, information technology, finance and aerospace industries that advises the federal government on maintaining secure and reliable communications. It is part of a broader federal response to the Colonial Pipeline hack and other cybersecurity incidents ordered last year by President Biden. (See Biden Directs Federal Cybersecurity Overhaul.)
Biden’s order directed NSTAC to study three key cybersecurity topics:
software assurance in the commercial information and communications technology supply chain;
zero trust and trusted identity management; and
the convergence of IT and operational technology systems.
Tuesday’s report, a working draft, focused on the third issue; a later, comprehensive report is planned that will cover all three areas.
Common Risks in OT Systems
In the document, NSTAC identified three common deficiencies that enable potential attackers to cross over from businesses’ IT networks — which are used for data-centric computing and communications — into their OT systems, which monitor and control events, processes, and devices in enterprise and industrial operations. Cybersecurity researchers have warned that cybercrime groups around the world are actively developing such crossover capability. (See Dragos Warns Malware Developers Building Skills Fast.)
The first security issue cited by the report’s authors is the lack of an effective “air gap”: an isolation of a business’s OT and IT assets that prevents any communication, either physically or wirelessly. Air gapping is essential to OT security because attackers can use any contact with an IT system to gain access to and control over the OT system. But the report said that even this basic level of security seems to be a major challenge for many businesses.
“While there are many OT engineers that may rely on the idea of an air gap to protect their environments, asset operators should recognize that in most environments, the air gap is a myth,” the NSTAC said, adding that many of its members “have 25 years-plus experience and have never seen a true ‘air-gapped’ OT system.”
What prevents an effective air gap, the report said, is usually the sheer convenience of connecting OT networks to the internet. Putting systems online rather than limiting access to those who are physically present allows a wider range of employees to monitor and step in if anything goes wrong.
However, it also means that an organization’s security staff lose some control and visibility into who has access to the OT systems. The NSTAC calls this phenomenon “accidental convergence,” and it comprises the second major theme of the report, defined as when “the system owner does not even realize or have visibility into which devices reside where on their networks.” This is especially the case in systems where OT assets have been connected to cloud services, which is increasingly common in the U.S.
While the authors acknowledged efforts are underway to mitigate the security risks of connecting to the open internet, they cautioned that even these advanced security controls cannot entirely remove the “fundamental availability risks of services delivered over the internet.”
The final vulnerability is the existence of “shadow IT,” in which OT systems are “added and modified without official IT change management control and approval.” While the report noted that OT systems usually are designed to “limit the ability to effect changes to assets in the environment,” as with air gapping, such precautions often lapse without highly disciplined change management processes. This can create problems when, for instance, employees use workarounds during urgent troubleshooting that are never removed from the environment afterward, or engineers use off-the-shelf components with unauthorized connectivity capabilities instead of following proper procurement protocol.
NSTAC provided several recommendations for the president and other government agencies, including CISA, to help “further reduce risk and secure the nation’s critical infrastructure.” While these mainly concern government OT networks, they also include measures on communication and information sharing. The report’s authors called on CISA, the National Security Council and the Office of the National Cybersecurity Director to develop “interoperable, technology-neutral, vendor-agnostic information-sharing mechanisms” to allow the sharing of real-time data “between authorized stakeholders involved with securing U.S. critical infrastructure.”
“NSTAC also recognizes that the federal government alone cannot uniquely resolve all the challenges surrounding OT cybersecurity, and readers from all stakeholder groups will benefit from the additional findings, best practices and general guidance contained in the appendices,” the report said.
Maine and Rhode Island will join New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Jersey to create a consortium that will apply for federal funding this fall to develop a regional hydrogen hub, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Thursday.
The coalition — which includes 14 private sector industry leaders, 12 utilities, 20 hydrogen technology original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), 10 universities and two transportation companies — will compete for $2 billion matching grants from the U.S. Department of Energy early next year.
It has agreed to work with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the New York Power Authority and Empire State Development on a proposal to advance clean hydrogen projects in the Northeast, according to Hochul’s office. The proposal will center climate and environmental justice while also looking to boost the economies and quality of life in each state involved, it said.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul | Darren McGee, Office of Governor
“Building a robust and connected clean hydrogen market across the Northeast will provide a game-changing clean energy alternative that will transform our ability to meet our shared climate goals while advancing 21st century innovation and stimulating strong economic growth throughout the region,” Hochul said in a statement.
The hydrogen hub grants were authorized in the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed into law in November 2021, providing $8 billion for four regional hydrogen hubs, $1 billion for research to bring down the cost of hydrogen electrolysis and $500 million to support equipment manufacturing.
DOE said it will issue a request for proposals in September or October, with final applications due in the first quarter of 2023. The department issued an initial request for information earlier this year.
The Battelle Institute, which administers nine National Laboratories, said earlier this summer that multistate applications would have a better chance of winning funding. The independent research lab is working with Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia in an effort to plan a regional hub creating and using hydrogen made from natural gas, which is plentiful in the region.
There are also efforts to create hydrogen hub groups in Oregon and Washington state, and a Gulf Coast hub from Louisiana to Texas, centered in Houston. Four Western states — New Mexico, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming — announced intentions in February to create a hub. And New Mexico is considering switching a power plant to hydrogen. Southern California Gas unveiled a plan in February to build a pipeline to transport hydrogen from Mojave Desert to customers in the Los Angeles Basin.
“I am proud to have Rhode Island join the New York-led Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub as we explore the amazing potential that hydrogen offers, not only as an additional clean energy resource, with broad applications across our transportation and industrial sectors, but also by adding new jobs to our economy,” Gov. Dan McKee said in a statement.
Dan Burgess, director of the Maine Governor’s Energy Office, said clean hydrogen is “an exciting technology with potential for economic growth that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.”
The Northeast Clean Energy Council, a major policy player in the region, is another of the coalition’s new partners. So are Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Siena College and the University of Connecticut. And energy companies including EDP Renewables North America, Equinor and Edgewise Energy have joined as well.
An Oregon renewables company wants to construct two hydrogen manufacturing plants and a network of hydrogen pipelines in eastern Oregon and Washington later this decade.
Obsidian Renewables of Lake Oswego, Ore., plans to build hydrogen production plants at existing industrial parks in Hermiston, Ore., and Moses Lake, Wash. The plants would use electrolyzers to separate hydrogen from water and wastewater.
These would supply a proposed pipeline system that would terminate at points in The Dalles, Pendleton and Prineville in Oregon, and in Wenatchee and Spokane in Washington. Another pipeline would extend to Lewiston, Idaho. One connecting pipeline would go through the Tri-Cities, which is the second-most populated area in eastern Washington behind Spokane.
The network would be powered by electricity from new wind and solar farms, with each type of renewable resource expected to supply 800 MW.
The company believes the project will cost roughly $3 billion, Obsidian President David Brown said in an interview.
Obsidian is still putting together the pieces of the project, with Brown declining to name potential partners. He said different partners will likely tackle different aspects of the project. For example, one might build the plants, while another constructs the pipeline. Other partners would build the wind and solar farms.
Obsidian hopes to tap into the $8 billion fund that the U.S. Department of Energy has set aside to create four to eight regional hydrogen hubs across the nation. Each hub would get $1 billion to $2 billion. Washington is aggressively pursuing that money to create a Northwest hydrogen hub, including passage of legislation this year to help organize the effort. (See Wash. Looks to Boost Prospects for Winning Hydrogen Hub.)
In Washington, one hydrogen manufacturing plant owned by the Douglas County Public Utility District is scheduled to go online in East Wenatchee in mid-2023. The Port of Seattle is studying whether it wants to get into hydrogen manufacturing and distribution. Refueling stations for hydrogen-powered vehicles are in the works for East Wenatchee and the transit authority in Chehalis and Centralia
DOE expects to receive roughly 100 proposals by September, after which it will begin winnowing through them. No timetable is set for DOE’s decisions on how to allocate the $8 billion.
Brown said the earliest that the hydrogen plants might be built is 2025 but added that completion could be later this decade. The pipelines could likely take three years to build after Obsidian obtains all the needed permits, he said.
Potential customers would be fertilizer plants, hydrogen-powered vehicles and other agricultural uses. Also, Eastern Washington is home to several data farms, which could use hydrogen as fuel for their backup generators.
Brown did not rule out trying to connect with any potential western Oregon and Washington hydrogen customers that might want to build pipelines across the Cascade Mountains.
An article in the Aug. 23 RTO Insider newsletter incorrectly reported that ERCOT’s Board of Directors had approved a protocol change that reduced counterparties’ limit for unsecured credit to $30 million from $50 million. However, the measure actually eliminated unsecured credit entirely. (See “Board Agrees to Lower Unsecured Credit Limit for Counterparties,” ERCOT Board of Directors Briefs: Aug. 16, 2022.)
The motion’s language incorporated the Technical Advisory Committee’s approval of a reduction to $30 million in April, as suggested by its Protocol Revision Subcommittee. However, it then added “as amended by” ERCOT comments from March.
In the comments, staff disagreed with the reinstatement of unsecured credit limits to the nodal protocol revision request (NPRR1112), saying the credit limit “translates directly to a cost that must be borne by other market participants” should there be a default.
“The provision of unsecured credit therefore means that the credit risk from the market activities of some market participants is subsidized by others,” staff said. “Elimination of unsecured credit will reduce the inconsistent cross-subsidization of credit exposure and provide a more level playing field for market participants.”
Staff and stakeholders had also debated the measure during TAC’s April meeting, when the committee voted in favor of the reduction to $30 million. (See “TAC Passes Contentious Outage Measure over Staff’s Objections,” ERCOT Technical Advisory Committee Briefs: April 13, 2022.)
“That was an incredibly confusing motion and could have been more clearly conveyed,” TAC Chair Clif Lange told RTO Insider.
ERCOT General Counsel Chad Seely referred to the motion’s language as “odd” before he offered it to the board for its unanimous approval.
Lange said he was told by the grid operator’s staff that the motion was crafted in the manner it was presented to capture the record developed in TAC’s report on the NPRR.
NERC and the regional entities signaled their support last week for FERC’s proposal to change transmission planning and cost allocation processes, calling such a move “essential for a reliable transition to a modern” bulk power system (RM21-17).
The ERO shared its views in comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking FERC issued in April that would require transmission providers to identify infrastructure needs on a long-term, forward-looking basis through revisions to their planning processes, and to list the benefits they would use to select proposed projects. (See FERC Issues 1st Proposal out of Transmission Proceeding.) The commission said the rules would help planners cope with the growth of renewables, along with extreme weather events and new sources of demand such as electric vehicles.
In their response, NERC and the REs focused on the “immense transition” being experienced by the North American electric grid “as the generation resource mix and underlying transmission system evolve,” while changing weather patterns add stress for which the grid was never designed.
In particular, the ERO cited the ongoing adoption of wind and solar generators that deliver power to the grid through inverters, a major departure from traditional resources, which NERC said requires a new approach to transmission planning. Instead of using the models and studies devised for older technologies to connect this new generation fleet to the transmission system, NERC said FERC should encourage “long-term, forward-looking transmission planning to ensure” reliable connection to the BPS.
“Transmission will be the key to support the resource transformation enabling delivery of energy from areas that have surplus energy to areas which are deficient,” the ERO said in its filing. “The frequency of such occurrences [is] increasing as extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change impact the fuel sources for variable energy resources. Regional transmission planning can ensure that sufficient amounts of transmission capacity [are available] to address these more frequent extreme weather conditions.”
Noting that NERC’s reliability standards “apply together with commission transmission planning and interconnection requirements,” the ERO expressed appreciation for FERC’s understanding of its role in the bulk electric system. It urged the commission to continue including it in future discussions of the grid transformation, arguing that the ERO “is particularly equipped to assess the North American transmission system” because of its history of working with policy makers, regulators, utilities and other stakeholders across the electric industry.
WECC said the issue is “a particular area of concern” for the Western Interconnection because of the “interregional consequences” of its operation and the lack of any other “interconnection-wide organization” besides WECC that can help coordinate the development of the transmission system. The RE said it could play a leading role in mustering the efforts of various interests to build a more reliable grid for the entire interconnection.
NERC and the REs were careful to limit their comments to matters related to BPS reliability, declining to mention issues of cost allocation or other topics raised by the NOPR. Other commenters have been more ambivalent about FERC’s proposal; more than 180 respondents had replied by the deadline last week, with many expressing general support for the overall goal but hesitation about the specifics. (See Battle Lines Drawn on FERC Tx Planning NOPR.)
Hydrogen has been the fuel of the future for about 100 years. Now its moment may have arrived.
Initially investigated as an auto fuel, and later becoming a crucial rocket fuel in the NASA manned space program, hydrogen is seen today as the most promising replacement for fossil fuels in transportation, industrial processes and power generation.
The Biden administration’s June 2021 announcement of a hydrogen “Earthshot” by U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm aimed at reducing the price of hydrogen to $1/ kg within this decade was the start of a frenetic drive both by government and industry to move away from carbon emissions.
The bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed in November 2021 allocated more than $9 billion for hydrogen development programs, including $8 billion in matching grants for the creation of multi-state “hydrogen hubs” by industry and government in which hydrogen would be used in the region in which it is produced.
The Inflation Reduction Act signed by the president onAug. 16 created a 10-year production tax credit (PTC)as high as $3/kg for hydrogenelectrolysis operations built by companies paying prevailing wages and offering apprentice training.The law also allows operations to choose an investment tax credit rather than a PTC.
The bill is expected to accelerate the already growing interest in hydrogen research, development and use.
Hydrogen webinars, reports and conferences are now weekly events in the U.S. and in Europe, which is facing a critical shortage of natural gas. In Germany, where there is a commitment to move to 100%hydrogen, a natural gas storage company hasbeen testing the efficacy ofunderground salt caverns and salt domes for hydrogen storage, with results that U.S. counterparts will find useful.
RAG Austria AG, one of Europe’s largest gas storage companies with connections to major European gas pipelines, has preliminarily determined that hydrogen injected into former gas reservoirs stays put, doesn’t react with steel equipment any differently than natural gas and can be pumped back out upon demand.
The company successfully injected a 115,000-cubic-meter mixture of hydrogen and natural gas into storage and later retrieved it without incident, said Markus Pichler, a reservoir engineer, during a webinar produced earlier this month by Mission Hydrogen, an independent German proponent of hydrogen that has been hosting weekly webinars for a global audience.
Pichler said the company began hydrogen storage research in 2012, initially in laboratories. He said the mixture of hydrogen and gas injected into storage did not affect the steel piping and other equipment used in the gas reservoir, did not seep out of the reservoir and behaved much like methane. But he added that hydrogen storage is still in the R&D stage, with ongoing testing to confirm laboratory results in actual reservoirs.
The company, which maintains 66 TWh of gas storage, also discovered something else in its hydrogen tests, Pichler said; carbon dioxide injected into a reservoir containing hydrogen is converted to biomethane by microbes that exist naturally in the salt caverns.
To potential critics wondering why anyone would generate hydrogen and then convert it to methane, losing energy in the process, Pichler said: “If you think about it, all of our gas infrastructure is actually built for methane, for natural gas. If you then feed this [pipeline system] with biomethane, you basically need to change nothing.”
Pichler’s suggestion bypasses the question of pure hydrogen damaging gas pipelines, an issue confirmed in late July in a study commissioned by the California Public Utilities Commission. The study found that hydrogen blends above 5% could embrittle steel pipelines and raise the risk of leaks. (See Study Finds Adding More Hydrogen to Natural Gas Raises Risks.)
Collaborating Toward a Net-zero Carbon Future with Hydrogen
The question of whether existing utility pipelines can be used to ship hydrogen has not prevented gas turbine manufacturers from developing equipment capable of using hydrogen rather than only natural gas
Mitsubishi Power CEO Bill Newsom | Reuters
“A majority of the utilities in the United States have set a net-zero goal by 2050 or sooner, and [now] they have to assess how to get there. Our mission is to provide power generation and energy storage solutions for our customers which empowers them to affordably and reliably combat climate change,” said Bill Newsom, CEO of Mitsubishi Power Americas, in a webinar interview hosted earlier this month by Reuters. “We are investing hundreds of millions of dollars and partnering with our customers to enable them to be the heroes in this decarbonization journey.”
He said the company has been researching and developing electrolysis technologies for green hydrogen production, developing hydrogen storage and delivery standards, and modifying combined cycle turbines to burn hydrogen and hydrogen-gas mixtures.
Some designs have achieved a generation efficiency of at least 64%, according to the company. The long-term goal is to engineer a turbine capable of running on 100% hydrogen, Newsom said, a feat that company engineers have achieved with small gas turbines.
The R&D is not all in laboratories. Mitsubishi is building and already testing hydrogen-gas mixtures at a large power plant in the Netherlands. Its turbines will be used at power plants at several U.S. sites, including new plants in Utah, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Texas, according to Gas Turbine World.
Newsom said the company is looking at projects “across the U.S. that are utilizing salt domes [for storage]. As for converting pipelines to run hydrogen, that will take some time,” he said.
“We built the natural gas infrastructure here over the last 100 years,” he said. “We’re not going to in the next three decades be able to rebuild that entire infrastructure. What we want to do is look at how can we inject hydrogen into these existing pipelines. And which of these lines can be upgraded, maybe sleeved or coated, so that we can inject more than say, 20% hydrogen?”
Stressing that federal programs are crucial to accelerated development, Newsom said the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act means “there will be more real projects and more incentives, and this momentum will continue to bring real projects to fruition.”
He noted as an example that the Department of Energy in June awarded a $504.4 million loan guarantee to Mitsubishi Americas and partner Magnum Development for the creation of Advanced Clean Energy Storage in Utah, now considered the first hydrogen hub in the U.S. Creation of the hub took the cooperation of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico.
The hub will produce and store green hydrogen made with renewable power as fuel for two Mitsubishi gas turbines. The power will replace the output of two coal plants operated by the Intermountain Power Agency in Utah, which mostly serve utilities in Utah and California.
The Mitsubishi gas turbines will initially burn 30% green hydrogen and 70% natural gas when they begin operating in 2025. The goal is 100% hydrogen by 2045. The green hydrogen — produced by wind turbines, often at night when there is less power demand — will be stored in nearby salt domes.
Each of the two salt caverns, now being drilled, will hold 250 GWh of hydrogen, Newsom said. The gas plant will replace two old coal-fired power plants, Newsom said, adding that Mitsubishi has also announced partnerships with Entergy, Puget Sound and El Paso Electric.
“They have set their target to net zero. We are partnering with them to provide them with solutions to get there. Collaboration is absolutely critical,” he said, adding that Mitsubishi is also considering “sector partnering” with companies in steel manufacturing, transportation and agriculture.
State Efforts to Advance a Clean Hydrogen Economy
Efforts to move toward a hydrogen-based energy future vary by state. In addition to the multi-state partnered Utah project, organized efforts in Oregon and New York are preparing those states for a hydrogen future.
In a webinar organized by the National Association of State Energy Officials earlier this month, Rebecca Smith, a senior energy policy analyst at the Oregon Department of Energy, and Ian Latimer, program project manager with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) outlined what their states are planning for a decarbonized future.
In any state, the process ought to start with the legislature, Smith said, which is what Oregon lawmakers did last year with the passage of legislation requiring a broad state study, which the agency expects to release in September.
Oregon’s statutes do not define renewable hydrogen, but the legislation requiring the study did: “renewable gas from energy sources that do not emit greenhouse gases.”
One of the goals of the study, she said, has been to figure out how a policy on renewable hydrogen would fit with existing policies on renewable and clean energy. The mandate has also been to inventory current hydrogen volume and use in the state and to propose how the production and use of green hydrogen might be integrated into the state’s power generation. The state has relied on national federal laboratories and academia rather than utilities or gas producers at this point in order to produce a neutral study.
Another goal in preparing the study has been to include groups that are not often included in energy studies, especially those focused on environmental justice or community issues, and the study has tried to include local governments. Smith said her department “went out of our way to especially ensure that those who might be skeptical of renewable hydrogen we’re invited to participate” in order to reflect their opinions and attitudes in the report.
“We’re really seeking to partner … with all stakeholders, not only those who are already excited about renewable hydrogen. With respect to the [hydrogen] hubs [DOE competitively grants], everyone expects us to be very competitive,” she said.
“I am limited in what I can say about what’s going on in Oregon. But what I can say is that Oregon is collaborating with Washington state on a Pacific Northwest hub concept,” Smith said. “We have teamed up with our state’s business development agency, Business Oregon, to convene interested Oregon stakeholders.”
Once the study is filed in September, the state DOE plans to hold a number of public workshops to continue to engage business, labor and the public about the future of hydrogen in the state, she said.
Latimer presented what looked like a fully developed environmental plan that will include hydrogen.
“We are looking to get an 85% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels, 40% emissions reductions by 2030, 100% zero-emission electricity sector by 2040, including an interim target of 70% renewables by 2030,” he said.
“And then a number of technology specific targets throughout the next 10 to 15 years, and that’s targets for everything from offshore wind, to distributed solar, to battery energy storage development, as well as different targets for building electrification and energy efficiency,” he said.
“All of these targets are courtesy of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019 [CLCPA],” he added.
The state has described CLCPA as “one of the most ambitious climate laws in the world,” and Latimer made that clear as he described development of a planning and enforcement bureaucracy in recent years.
“The question then becomes, well, goals are great. How do you get there?” he said.
“The climate act enabled a Climate Action Council [CAC] to negotiate and chart a path forward for New York to reach its ambitious climate and energy targets, including the adoption of a scoping plan, which will make the recommendations for achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reduction … set forth in the climate act,” he explained.
The CAC is co-chaired by NYSERDA CEO Doreen Harris and Basil Seggos, chair of the New York Department of Environmental Conservation.
The council “includes a number of state agencies, a number of Governor appointees and then assembly and senate appointees as well,” Latimer said. It is the organization now charting the future of energy, including the use of hydrogen in the state, he said.
“Ultimately, any path that we take towards hydrogen in New York state will be in conjunction with the scenario and with the scoping plan that is put in place by the Climate Action Council. The integration of hydrogen into the plan will be based on a complicated analysis and at this point includes a number of scenarios,” he said.
“It recognizes a number of critical roles that hydrogen can play in decarbonizing hard-to-electrify applications. In the near-term that might mean … medium- and heavy-duty vehicle decarbonization.
“It may mean decarbonizing high-temperature industrial applications where electrification is not a viable or cost-effective alternative in the longer term. The integration analysis sees a role for low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen and decarbonizing,” Latimer said.
But in the long run, he said, the plan sees “an accelerated transition away from combustion, which means you are not looking at the combustion of hydrogen for power generation or heat. You’re focused on accelerating electrification for buildings and transportation, and so there’s … a decreased role for hydrogen in that scenario.”
The plan includes a role for hydrogen consumed by fuel cells powering “microgrids as a potential resilience solution for disadvantaged communities, looking to displace fossil fuel backup deployment,” he added.
The state is also analyzing the economic development created by the use of hydrogen, Latimer said.
MISO future capacity need projections | MISO
