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February 6, 2025

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SEIA: US Now Manufacturing More Solar Panels Than It Installs

The U.S. can now manufacture enough solar panels to meet domestic demand but still must import most of the core components ― the solar cells and the silicon wafers used to make them ― according to the latest figures from the Solar Energy Industries Association. 

The U.S. has enough solar panel manufacturing capacity to produce more than 51 GW of panels per year, with an additional 17.5 GW under construction and 23.5 GW of additional capacity announced. The industry installed 40.5 GW of solar in 2024, according to a separate year-end report from SEIA.  

The upstream supply chain, however, lags far behind. The nation has only 2 GW of solar cell manufacturing online versus 42.6 GW announced and 11.8 GW under construction. Production of silicon ingots and wafers has yet to go online, with only 3.3 GW under construction.  

SEIA is putting a positive spin on the disconnect, noting that it originally set a 50 GW target for panel manufacturing in 2020, expecting to hit that goal by 2030. Reaching and exceeding the benchmark five years ahead of schedule “is a testament to what we can achieve with smart, business-friendly public policies in place,” CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a Feb. 4 press release.  

“The U.S. is now the third-largest module producer in the world because of these policy actions,” Hopper said. “This milestone not only marks progress for the solar industry but reinforces the essential role energy policies play in building up the domestic manufacturing industry that American workers and their families rely on.”  

Without actually naming the law, Hopper is here referring to the clean energy tax credits and incentives contained in former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. SEIA specifically advocated for the law’s advanced manufacturing production tax credit, applicable to solar manufacturing, and bonus incentives for solar projects that use products made in the U.S., according to the press release. 

The organization also successfully pushed for a 25% investment tax credit for domestic production of solar wafers and ingots, contained in the CHIPS and Science Act, which like the IRA was passed in 2022. 

SEIA frames the lag in cell and wafer manufacturing as the result of “sequencing the build-out of a domestic solar supply chain. Establishing production of downstream components like modules ensures there is sufficient demand for upstream manufacturing,” according to the press release.  

Tariff-proof Chinese Wafers?

Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, SEIA has been focused on protecting solar’s federal tax credits by positioning the industry as a critical part of Trump’s vision for U.S. energy dominance and independence, as well as a major source of the clean, affordable power needed to meet growing demand from data centers. 

The organization also continues to tout the private investment and jobs that solar manufacturing has brought to Republican states and congressional districts. By SEIA’s count, new or planned solar manufacturing facilities are located in 23 states with Republican governors and 122 districts with Republican representatives in Congress, versus 20 states and 90 districts with Democratic leaders and lawmakers.  

The industry’s weak spot, however, could be its continued dependence on imported cells and wafers. Private investments in new U.S. facilities could be at risk if congressional Republicans take steps to reduce or roll back clean energy tax credits and other incentives as part of their plans to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  

First published by Politico, a recently circulated short list of potential budget cuts Republicans are considering includes discontinuing $300 billion in clean energy funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and an additional $56 billion in grants from the IRA.  

In an email to NetZero Insider, Elissa Pierce, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, notes that in 2024, “62.5% of US cell imports came from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam,” the four nations subject to antidumping and countervailing duty tariffs imposed by the Commerce Department in 2024. 

An investigation by the International Trade Commission found that companies in those countries were using Chinese components in their products, while seeking to circumvent existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar cells and panels.  

Pierce expects the percentage of solar cell imports from the four nations will decrease in 2025, with imports from Indonesia, Laos and South Korea rising.  

More to the point, she said, prospective cell manufacturers in the U.S. could still import wafers and ingots from China — even with increased tariffs — because “Chinese wafers are so cheap that this isn’t very impactful. Some of the cell manufacturers coming online this year have stated that they will get wafers from Southeast Asia.” 

The industry recently celebrated the opening of a new U.S.-owned cell manufacturer, ES Foundry, in South Carolina, Christian Roselund, senior policy analyst at Clean Energy Associates, wrote on LinkedIn. But he cautioned that “U.S. solar manufacturing is a long way from being able to meet the demands of our internal market at the cell level.” 

Erecting trade barriers and cutting federal incentives “will set back U.S. solar manufacturing, not advance it,” he said. 

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Puget Sound Energy Partners with Tech Co. to Promote Hydrogen

Puget Sound Energy and clean energy technology company Modern Hydrogen have launched an initiative aimed at expanding hydrogen technology among large gas customers to meet decarbonization goals.

The two Washington state-based companies have teamed up to boost the implementation of Modern Hydrogen’s technology, which can convert natural gas to hydrogen at the point of consumption. The focus is on customers in the commercial and industrial sectors, according to a Jan. 29 news release.

“PSE is undergoing the most significant transformation in our history as we strive to meet Washington state’s clean energy laws — some of the most ambitious in the nation,” Josh Jacobs, PSE vice president of clean energy strategy and planning, said in a statement. “Our partnership with Modern Hydrogen is a significant step towards achieving this vision, as their technology has the potential to help our largest gas customers accelerate their decarbonization programs and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.”

Melanie Coon, public relations manager at PSE, told NetZero Insider that the utility is “in the process of identifying customers who use large amounts of natural gas and have considerable decarbonization goals. How they end up utilizing the hydrogen will be customized to their unique business and energy needs.”

The main target is heavy industrial and manufacturing customers. PSE is exploring the application of Modern Hydrogen’s technology in sectors like commercial and industrial heat, industrial HVAC, heavy equipment and fleet fueling, and distributed power generation, according to Coon.

That last category includes operations that require firm, on-site power generation with gas turbine infrastructure. This means that the data center, compressor station, warehouse and industrial equipment sectors could potentially apply the technology to their operations, Coon said.

Leigh D’Angelo, manager of communications and public relations at Modern Hydrogen, told NetZero Insider via email that the company’s technology allows customers to remove carbon from natural gas at the meter, converting the gas into hydrogen by a process called methane pyrolysis.

It does so by heating the gas to “extremely high temperatures in a zero-oxygen environment.” The carbon falls out as a solid “black snow” that can be used in asphalt products.

To burn the decarbonized gas, most end-users need to make “minimum equipment” alterations, according to D’Angelo.

Natural gas equipment can burn lower blends of hydrogen. To accept higher blends of clean hydrogen, a hydrogen-rated burner is needed to control the flame.

“Additional retrofits might be needed, depending on the equipment and application characteristics (gas lines, storage tanks, valves, etc.),” D’Angelo wrote. “This can be performed by the [original equipment manufacturer] or by a qualified engineering firm. Overall, these modifications are reasonable in cost. Most OEMs estimate that a [gas-to-hydrogen] retrofit is not more than 10% of the equipment cost.”

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House Hearing Examines How to Ensure US ‘Energy Dominance’

The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy looked into how to meet demand growth in its first hearing of the new Congress on Feb. 5, which showed a clear partisan divide on how to meet it.

“In the last Congress, I asked every witness that appeared before us in this subcommittee the same question: Do we need more energy or less energy?” subcommittee Chair Bob Latta (R-Ohio) said. “And all of those witnesses all responded by saying we need more. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects the United States will consume record amounts of electricity in 2025. The Department of Energy’s Berkeley Lab estimates that U.S. data center load growth, which already encompasses half the data centers in the world, is projected to double or triple by the year 2028.”

A reliable and affordable energy system involves building on policies from the Biden administration, Ranking Member Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said.

“Nothing in [President Donald Trump’s] executive orders is designed to lower energy prices or help hard-working Americans,” Castor said. “Instead, across the board, the actions are a gift to big oil companies. They’re designed to boost their profits at the expense of working families across this country. It’s outlandish that the president declared an energy emergency at a time when the United States is producing more oil and gas than any country in history.”

While the two parties clash on many issues, Castor said that they share some interest in strengthening the electric grid, advanced nuclear power, critical minerals and battery recycling.

“We’re already producing record amounts of oil and gas. American manufacturing is booming thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,” said Tyler O’Connor, partner at Crowell & Moring. “And our geopolitical adversaries like China and Russia are struggling to keep pace with American ingenuity and resolve. In other words, we have unleashed American energy, but there is still work to be done.”

Repealing those two laws, or withholding appropriated funds from projects that were supported by them, would serve to raise prices and be a blow to regulatory certainty, said O’Connor, who was the minority’s witness at the hearing.

Growing electric load requires more legislative action, with O’Connor asking the committee to consider what steps it can take to facilitate the permitting, planning and cost allocation of transmission lines. Supply chains for some critical components of the grid are still lagging, even years after the emergency conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic.

O’Connor also suggested that Congress ensure agencies that site energy projects, such as FERC, have their staffing levels maintained so they can get that work done.

“As I listen to both sides, believe it or not, I think there’s more consensus here than maybe we might think,” said Brigham McCown, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “We do need an approach that includes everything in our energy mix, and … the percentages of that mix will change over time as technology and innovation move forward.”

But how quickly the transition happens cannot be willed through congressional mandates, McCown argued.

“We have to be careful about how we change this mix, and we have to understand the reality of today is that fossil fuels are powering the future,” McCown said. “And if we want to reduce our carbon footprint, we should start by talking to the Chinese and the Indians.”

Working on technologies like carbon capture and storage and sustainable aviation fuel is critical to meeting the future’s energy needs, he added.

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Georgia Power Proposes Nuclear Uprate, Delay in Fossil Retirement

Georgia Power’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan proposes to uprate four of its nuclear reactors, upgrade a natural gas plant and push back some coal and gas retirements. 

Georgia’s largest electric utility said the moves are driven by anticipated demand. It expects 8.2 GW of load growth through the end of 2030 — 2.2 GW more than it projected in its 2023 IRP Update. 

Environmental advocates were disappointed by some aspects of the plan, particularly the operating extensions of what Georgia Power called some of the most advanced coal-fired units in the world. 

In its Public Service Commission filing (Docket 56002), Georgia Power proposes to address both power demand and supply in its new IRP. It also lays out a 10-year plan to upgrade more than 1,000 miles of transmission lines. 

Nuclear is one of the smaller components on the supply side of the strategy. 

Georgia Power proposes to increase the thermal output of its Hatch 1 and 2 and Vogtle 1 and 2 reactors to extract a 112-MW increase in capacity from them as soon as late 2028 or early 2029. The four units began commercial operation 36 to 49 years ago. 

Proposed upgrades to 10 gas units at Plant McIntosh are projected to yield 268 MW of incremental capacity as early as late 2027. 

Investments in nine existing hydroelectric facilities would preserve 665 MW of capacity. 

The 2025 IRP also proposes keeping three coal-fired units at Plant Scherer; an oil-burning unit at Plant Gaston; and four gas units with coal-fired backup at Plant Gaston in operation through 2034 to 2038. This would preserve 1 GW of capacity and is a change from the 2022 IRP, which called for their retirement in 2027 and 2028.  

Georgia has seen an uptick in manufacturing development in the past four years, and the Census Bureau estimates its population jumped 4.4% from 2020 to 2024, compared with 2.6% nationwide. 

Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene alluded to this in a Jan. 31 news release: “The 2025 IRP provides a comprehensive plan to support Georgia’s continued economic growth and serve Georgians with clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy well into the future.” 

Some of that economic growth has been in the clean energy sector, boosted by funding during the Biden administration. Environmental activists saw irony in Georgia Power’s proposal to burn more fossil fuel to power these new facilities. 

“We’re the number one state to do business and one of the U.S.’s fastest-growing tech hubs. Are we really going to power progress with gas and coal?” Southern Environmental Law Center attorney Jennifer Whitfield asked in a news release. “Coal hasn’t been economic for years, and paying for even more methane gas is incompatible with the future Georgians want and businesses are demanding.” 

At the two-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act, nonpartisan business group E2 calculated that Georgia had fared second-best among the states under the IRA: 28 major clean energy or clean vehicle projects carrying an estimated $15.3 billion investment that would create an estimated 15,723 jobs. 

Georgia Power predicts the largest components of its summer 2025 generation capacity mix will be 44% gas, 16% coal, 14% solar/storage and 12% nuclear. Its actual energy mix for 2024 was 40% gas, 29% nuclear, 16% coal and 6% solar. In total, 38% of the energy was carbon-free. 

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LS Power Files Complaint Against MISO over Indiana ROFR

Competitive transmission developer LS Power has lodged a complaint against MISO for treating Indiana’s right of first refusal law as if it’s in effect when it’s under a preliminary injunction, arguing it’s being denied the chance to bid on a share of more than $1 billion in proposed transmission.

LS Power alleged in a Feb. 4 complaint that MISO is violating its tariff by playing by the state’s ROFR law even though the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Indiana has temporarily forbidden its enforcement (EL25-55).

LS Power said MISO erroneously considers a preliminary injunction of the ROFR to not affect the law’s status but agrees a permanent ban would render the law irrelevant. The company said MISO’s interpretation of its tariff defies established law that “a preliminary injunction has all of the force of a permanent injunction during its period of effectiveness.”

LS Power asked FERC to act quickly to force MISO to respect injunctions regardless of whether they’re preliminary or permanent.

“MISO’s position that only a permanent injunction — not a preliminary injunction — renders a law ‘[ina]pplicable’ is flatly wrong and would cause chaos if applied across all tariff references to ‘applicable laws,’” the developer argued.

In December, a federal judge for the Southern District of Indiana blocked Indiana’s right of first refusal law, benefiting incumbent utilities, which had been in effect for roughly a year and a half. (See New Law Expands Indiana ROFR Law for Transmission Buildout.) LS Power sued the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, arguing the state violated the Commerce Clause by treating in-state developers differently than out-of-state developers.

At the time, Chief Judge Tanya Walton Pratt agreed the ROFR “erects a barrier to the interstate electric transmission market by limiting who can compete for new construction projects in Indiana.”

The decision immobilized Indiana’s ROFR law five days before MISO approved its $21.8 billion long-range transmission plan (LRTP) for MISO Midwest. (See “Indiana ROFR Reversal Complicates Project Assignment,” MISO Board Endorses $21.8B Long-range Transmission Plan.)

The 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Jan. 12 continued the lower court’s injunction after a monthlong stay; the court has yet to issue a final ruling on whether the district court was correct to issue the injunction. Meanwhile, district court litigation continues.

MISO on Jan. 31 issued the LRTP portfolio’s first request for proposals, soliciting bids for the Kentucky portion of a 345-kV transmission line that crosses the Ohio River into Indiana. The RTO excluded the Indiana portion of the project from competition.

In its complaint, LS Power said MISO withholding the second half of the project from competition denies ratepayers the “potential efficiencies of a single developer addressing the entire set of new 345-kV facilities.”

“Incumbent transmission owners have indicated that they plan to move quickly to advance the projects excluded from competition, which will result in spending ratepayer money while confusing landowners and others in the path of these largely greenfield additions if the projects are ultimately declared competitive,” LS Power said.

LS Power said it and its subsidiaries are “directly and substantially harmed by MISO’s tariff violation because MISO relied on its view that it could ignore the preliminary injunction to exclude over $1 billion in proposed transmission additions in Indiana from the tariff’s required competitive transmission process.”

LS Power said from what it can tell, MISO has not assigned Indiana projects from the second LRTP yet. The company said if MISO designates projects while the preliminary injunction is in place, those assignments would be invalid.

MISO previously estimated that about $7 billion of the $21.8 billion portfolio will be opened to competitive bidding. That figure does not account for the injunction against Indiana’s right of first refusal law.

At a Feb. 5 Advisory Committee meeting, MISO counsel Jacob Krause said MISO is aware of LS Power’s complaint over its interpretation of the law. He did not elaborate on MISO’s stance.

“The Indiana ROFR law is not in effect today,” LS Power’s Sharon Segner told MISO membership at the meeting. “If a preliminary injunction is in effect, it means the Indiana law is not in effect.”

LS Power added that it was not looking for FERC to wade into arguments concerning the legitimacy of ROFR laws or Commerce Clause issues. It said it simply was requesting that FERC weigh MISO’s obligation to comply with applicable laws and regulations, per its tariff. LS Power warned that MISO’s view that a law remains in force even when it’s subjected to preliminary injunction could create “chaos” in other areas, like MISO’s generator interconnection procedures.

“After all, consistency of tariff application requires that MISO approach the impact of preliminary injunctions the same across all tariff references to applicable laws and regulations, not solely state incumbent preference laws,” LS Power wrote. However, LS Power added that a FERC resolution of MISO’s tariff interpretation may impact the 7th Circuit and the district court’s proceedings.

MISO planners previously said in public meetings that the RTO is indifferent as to which companies build LRTP lines but wants them finished in a timely manner.

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Arizona Electric Utilities Team Up to Pursue Nuclear

Arizona’s three largest electric utilities are jointly exploring the possibility of adding nuclear generation. 

Arizona Public Service (APS), Salt River Project (SRP) and Tucson Electric Power (TEP) announced Feb. 5 they are starting the process now because the time frame to develop such projects would be lengthy. 

The utilities could use the small modular reactor technology that is advancing along multiple development pathways, or they could use larger-scale reactors. Potential sites could include coal-burning plants that will be retired. 

The utilities are seeking a grant through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Generation III + Small Modular Reactor Program, a Biden-era funding stream that promised up to $900 million to support initial construction of next-generation nuclear technologies. 

The application window closed Jan. 17, three days before the inauguration of a president who promised a close review of and sweeping changes to his predecessor’s spending priorities. 

As of Feb. 5, a web page for the grant program (which was launched by DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations Office of Nuclear Energy) was still live on DOE’s website. 

APS, SRP and TRP said the grant would support a three-year site selection process and, possibly, preparation of an early site plan application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 

The three utilities called the grant application an initial step in a larger collaborative effort to explore new nuclear generation in Arizona. 

They said a preferred site would not be identified until the late 2020s, at the earliest, and if additional nuclear capacity was developed, it might be expected to come online in the early 2040s. 

APS operates the only nuclear plant in Arizona — the three-reactor Palo Verde Generating Station. The 4-GW facility claimed the title of largest nameplate capacity in the nation for a quarter century but was surpassed by Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle in 2024, when its fourth unit entered commercial operation. 

APS President Ted Geisler said in a news release that the timeline for nuclear expansion stretches well into the future. 

“Energy demand in Arizona is increasing rapidly,” he said. “To ensure a reliable and affordable electric supply for our customers, we are committed to maintaining a diverse energy mix. While new nuclear generation would take more than a decade to develop, the planning and exploration of options must begin now. We are partnering with neighboring utilities to assess the feasibility of new nuclear generation, alongside other resources, to meet the state’s growing energy needs.”

The Energy Information Administration notes that Arizona has among the lowest per-capita rates of energy use among the U.S. states, thanks to its mild winters and percentage of seasonal residences. But it also is among the fastest-growing states, with its population increasing 11.9% between the 2010 and 2020 Census counts. 

EIA reports that in 2023, natural gas was the dominant resource for in-state electricity generation in Arizona, at 46%. Nuclear was second at 27%, followed by coal and solar (10% each), hydro (5%) and wind (1%). 

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Wash. Governor Orders Study to Explore Data Center Impact

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson (D) signed an executive order Feb. 3 to explore the impact of data center growth on the Evergreen State, in a move that comes as the Northwest grapples with the mounting challenges and opportunities the centers could bring.

The order specifically establishes a workgroup that will publish a report by Dec. 1, 2025, to “recommend policies and actions for addressing energy use and impacts on the economy and job market,” according to a news release.

The group will include representatives from Washington’s Department of Commerce, the Utilities and Transportation Commission, the Department of Ecology, electric utilities, environmental advocacy groups, labor organizations and industry stakeholders, according to the release.

“We must ensure Washington remains a leader in technology and sustainability — these experts will help us do that,” Ferguson said in a statement. “This group will help us balance industry growth, tax revenue needs, energy constraints and sustainability.”

Fred Heutte, a senior policy analyst at the Northwest Energy Coalition, welcomed Ferguson’s initiative, telling RTO Insider that other Northwest states should launch their own studies in collaboration with their neighbors.

“The new data center development is already posing major and rapid increases in our local, state and regional electricity use,” Heutte said.

Ferguson’s order follows a report published by WECC forecasting “staggering” growth in electricity demand in the Western Interconnection over the next decade.

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson | Washington state government

WECC predicted annual demand in the Western Interconnection will grow from 942 TWh in 2025 to 1,134 TWh in 2034. That 20.4% increase is more than four times the 4.5% growth rate from 2013 to 2022 and double the 9.6% growth forecast in 2022 resource plans.

Similarly, the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee’s Northwest regional forecast for 2024 found that electricity demand will increase from about 23,700 average MW in 2024 to about 31,100 aMW in 2033, an increase of more than 30% in the next 10 years.

Heutte said it’s important the Washington workgroup get input from local communities and tribes that have data centers nearby. The question of cost allocation is similarly crucial, he said, especially if data centers don’t fully cover costs related to their use or if utilities will not pay for new equipment and energy supplies.

“There is a risk that significant cost shifting could happen for all other power customers at a time when a lot of people are having … trouble with high bills, energy burden, struggling to pay their bills,” Heutte said.

Heutte also argued the workgroup should focus on grid flexibility and ensuring that companies behind the data centers work with the community.

“We want them to be good community partners, continue to support and expand clean energy, reliability and affordable energy costs for everyone,” Heutte said.

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Neo-Nazi Convicted in Baltimore Grid Attack Conspiracy

A federal jury has convicted neo-Nazi leader Brandon Russell of planning to attack electric substations in Baltimore in hopes of sparking a cascading failure that would “completely destroy [the] whole city.” 

Russell was found guilty of conspiracy to damage an energy facility after a six-day trial. The jury’s verdict form was filed Feb. 4, according to court records, although a statement from the U.S. Department of Justice said the verdict was returned Feb. 3.  

Russell was charged in February 2023 along with his accomplice, Sarah Beth Clendaniel. (See Feds Charge Two in Alleged Conspiracy to Attack BGE Grid.)  

Clendaniel pleaded guilty to the conspiracy charge and being a felon in possession of a firearm in September 2024 and was sentenced to concurrently serve 18 years for conspiracy and 15 years for the firearm charge, plus three years of supervised release for the latter charge. The conspiracy conviction also includes a lifetime of supervised release for Clendaniel after her prison term. 

Brandon Russell | Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office

Russell — the founder of Atomwaffen Division, which DOJ considers a “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist” group inspired by Nazi beliefs — first became acquainted with Clendaniel in 2018 while both were incarcerated at separate facilities, according to the criminal complaint. Russell, a resident of Orlando, Fla., was in prison for possessing explosive material that he intended to use to attack electric infrastructure in his home state. 

Prosecutors said the two began actively conspiring no later than November 2022, working with a third person who was an informant for the FBI. Clendaniel identified five substations she planned to target, all operated by Baltimore Gas and Electric, a subsidiary of Exelon.  

She and Russell hoped to cause “a significant interruption and impairment of the … regional power grid,” DOJ said. The department calculated that the monetary loss from their planned attacks “would have exceeded $75 million.” 

Russell compared the planned attack to the rifle attacks in Moore County, N.C., when unknown perpetrators damaged two Duke Energy substations and caused more than 54,000 customers to lose power, DOJ said. (See Duke Completes Power Restoration After NC Substation Attack.) Clendaniel hoped that the cascading failure resulting from the destruction of the substations “would be legendary” and “completely destroy” Baltimore. 

“Today’s verdict reinforces [that] there is no tolerance for those who seek to harm our communities and use violence to further hate-filled beliefs,” FBI Special Agent William DelBagno said in the DOJ statement. “I am proud of the tremendous work by FBI Baltimore’s Joint Terrorism Task Force which led this investigation.” 

Russell’s sentencing date has not been scheduled. He faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. 

Electric utilities have become increasingly concerned about defending their facilities from violence as the incidence of attacks has risen in recent years. 

A common thread is politically motivated assaults on power stations. FBI agents arrested a 24-year-old from Tennessee in November 2024 for plotting to rig a drone with explosives and fly it into a substation near Nashville to disrupt power, cause civil unrest and spark a civil war; the defendant in that case also claimed ties to Atomwaffen. (See Feds Accuse Tenn. Man of Substation Attack Plot.)  

Similarly, three men with neo-Nazi associations pleaded guilty in 2022 to conspiring to damage substations with rifles after being arrested in Ohio. The men admitted they planned to damage the grid in order to cause racial unrest and were sentenced to 12, 60 and 92 months in prison. 

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North American Trade War Averted as Canada, Mexico Strike Deals

President Donald Trump has, at least temporarily, pulled back from starting a trade war with Canada and Mexico, issuing updated executive orders delaying the imposition of tariffs on both until March so additional talks on fentanyl, immigration and other trade issues can continue. 

Trump had threatened over the weekend to impose 25% tariffs on most imports from the two countries and a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada. (See Uncertainty Remains Around Energy Tariffs amid Last-minute Deals.) 

“The challenges at our southern border are foremost in the public consciousness, but our northern border is not exempt from these issues,” Trump said in an executive order. “Criminal networks are implicated in human trafficking and smuggling operations, enabling unvetted illegal migration across our northern border. There is also a growing presence of Mexican cartels operating fentanyl and nitazene synthesis labs in Canada.” 

Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo struck deals with Trump on Feb. 3 that averted the tariffs for another month at least, with another pair of executive orders issued delaying them until March 4. 

“I firmly believe that collaboration is what makes this continent great, and it is what will enable our conversation to move from one about tariffs, which in my mind is a lose-lose conversation, to one about prosperity and security, which offers a win-win,” Canadian Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in remarks to the Atlantic Council on Feb. 4. 

Wilkinson is a member of the current governing Liberal Party. Trudeau announced plans to step down in early January, which likely will lead to a new election in the coming months. According to the average of polls from the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., the Conservative Party is likely to return to power for the first time in 12 years. 

While Wilkinson discussed the longstanding partnership the U.S. and Canada have had, he noted that Trump’s tariff threats generated a patriotic response. 

“When all of a sudden Canada is treated more like an adversary than a partner, it did shake every Canadian, and I think you saw that in some of the patriotic expressions that came out in the aftermath of the decision to impose tariffs,” Wilkinson said. 

The movement of drugs and illegal immigrants is a smaller issue along the Canadian border than that of Mexico, but Wilkinson said his government is just as opposed to illegal smuggling and border crossings as the U.S. government. Canada recently announced an investment of $1 billion in border security, and Trudeau said he would appoint a “fentanyl czar” and list drug cartels as terrorists to work with the Trump administration, Wilkinson said. 

“Our respective economies are so integrated that I would say the partnership is effectively hard-wired,” Wilkinson said. “Nearly $2.7 billion worth of goods and services cross the border each day in 2023. Thirty-six U.S. states rely on Canada as their No. 1 export market. Canadian consumers and businesses purchased more goods from the United States than China, Japan and Germany combined.” 

The two economies are so intertwined that in the auto industry, parts will go back and forth across the border half a dozen times or more before a product is completed, he added. 

“But there is no area where the integrated nature of our economies is clearer than in energy and key resources, such as critical minerals,” Wilkinson said. “For example, Canada supplies significant quantities of low-cost hydroelectricity to several U.S. states via fixed transmission lines. Canadian electricity powers the equivalent of 6 million American homes.” 

In general, Canadian provinces are more economically linked, with energy and other sectors, to their neighboring U.S. states than they are to each other, Brattle Group Principal Johannes Pfeifenberger said in an interview. 

“British Columbia and Quebec, in particular, have vast amount of hydropower and hydro storage,” Pfeifenberger said. “So, in some ways, British Columbia would be the ideal battery for the West, and Quebec would be the ideal battery for the Northeast.” 

Excess renewables from the U.S. could be shipped up to Canada when that makes sense, and then the Canadian firms would sell it back south when American power demand is higher, he added. 

Wilkinson ran off other beneficial trading arrangements, from U.S. farmers importing potash, to the two countries working together on uranium supply so that the next generation of small modular reactors does not need to rely on supplies from more antagonistic countries like Russia. 

“I am suggesting that we should instead build upon current success by developing a U.S.-Canada alliance in energy and minerals,” he said. “Such an alliance would enable the United States and Canada to achieve our shared vision for affordable energy bills for families, strong and secure economies and North America as the world’s dominant energy supplier.” 

Electricity trading is a bigger deal between Canada and the U.S. than is trade with Mexico, where a few connections with Arizona, California and Texas are smaller and used less often, Pfefeinberger said. 

Kinetic Movement of Flowing Water

It is unclear whether trades in electricity will be covered by the laws that Trump’s executive orders cite, but he did single out electric generation and its fuels, including “the kinetic movement of flowing water,” in the order declaring a National Energy Emergency. The order imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian energy cited the energy emergency order. (See What is and isn’t in Trump’s National Energy Emergency Order.) 

Energy economist Robert McCullough, who has worked around hydroelectricity issues for decades, has an archive with 150 million files from the industry. None of them referenced the “kinetic movement of flowing water,” he said. A Google search of the phrase returns an “Energy 101” explainer video that the Department of Energy posted almost two years ago. 

“I think what we’re seeing is a bluff, and that this will fade away,” McCullough said. “But we do know that if it’s serious, they certainly didn’t prepare the paperwork seriously. The kindest word for it is that it’s ‘muddled.’ Now we are going to see a Federal Register notice, and hopefully that’ll be more operational.” 

If the talks for the next month or more between Canada and the U.S. are serious, there is plenty on electricity markets that the two sides could work to improve, he added. 

The Columbia River Treaty, which has been in effect since the 1960s, could benefit from some updates, McCullough said. While British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec are well plugged into the U.S. grid, other provinces are not. 

“Manitoba Hydro has always been isolated and confused and has never actually had the involvement in the energy markets that BC Hydro has,” McCullough said. 

On the East Coast, Newfoundland effectively has been blocked from shipping its hydropower to the U.S. by Hydro-Quebec. McCullough said that even FERC could weigh in there. Hydro-Quebec had to agree to FERC regulations, such as Order 888, when it entered into the U.S. markets. 

“Theoretically, Hydro-Quebec has signed on to 888 and has to open it up for open access, but practically, that never happens,” McCullough said. “And obviously they could go to FERC and demand that FERC penalize Hydro-Quebec and Canada for violating 888, but that apparently has never been seriously considered.” 

Normally it would be a hard case to make that a foreign, provincially owned corporation could be dinged for not following FERC’s rules on its Canadian grid, he added. But with Trump in the White House, who knows? 

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PJM Network Upgrades Boost Cost of Dominion OSW Project 9%

Dominion Energy reported that its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project will cost 9% more than initially expected, thanks to higher-than-expected PJM network upgrade costs.

In an update issued Feb. 3, the utility said the largest offshore wind project in the U.S. otherwise is roughly in line with the budget submitted 39 months ago. It is 50% complete and still on track to be commissioned in late 2026.

The project is in a very different situation than most other wind projects off the Northeast coast, which have suffered a litany of delays, cost increases, offtake contract cancellations, pauses on development or even outright cancellations in the past two years.

And as a fully permitted project already under construction, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) also is not immediately affected by the freeze on offshore wind leasing ordered by President Trump.

In its update, Dominion indicated there were decreases in offshore construction and equipment costs because of currency hedging as well as some increases such as unexploded ordnance removal, undersea cable protection enhancements and transportation fuel.

But these were far eclipsed by the onshore network upgrades and electrical interconnection cost increases.

In its quarterly report submitted Feb. 3 to the Virginia State Corporation Commission (PUR-2024-0026), Dominion said the increase stemmed from the Phase II Study results for Transition Cycle 1 that PJM published in late December.

Based on its conversations with PJM, Dominion expects the network and interconnection costs to be $882 million higher than in the original budget estimate submitted to the SCC in November 2021. The offshore adjustments are expected to raise the price tag by $30 million.

That boosts CVOW’s anticipated total cost from $9.8 billion to $10.7 billion. Part of this will be borne by ratepayers, and part by Dominion and its partner, Stonepeak.

The levelized cost of energy now is projected to be $62/MWh, once $29/MWh in renewable energy credits are factored in. That translates to an expected net impact over project lifetime of $1.01/month for a residential customer using 1,000 kWh/month.

This compares with an average all-in development cost of $150/MWh and a residential ratepayer impact of $2.02/month for Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind, the two mature projects awarded contracts by New York state in 2024.

Empire and Sunrise are among the few offshore wind projects on the East Coast still on track; most others have been canceled, paused or are far off in the future.

Transition pieces for the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project are loaded on the MS Sunrise in January in Aalborg Port in Denmark. | CS Wind Offshore

What makes CVOW different beyond its sheer size — 2.6 GW, which is 50% more than Empire and Sunrise combined — is that it is being developed by a regulated utility with a regulated return on its investment.

Importantly, Dominion locked in its costs for components and contractors before supply chain constraints, inflation and interest rate hikes wreaked havoc on an industry just starting to gain momentum in the U.S. market.

Dominion is optimistic CVOW’s value proposition will carry it through the latest challenge: election of a president with a longstanding antipathy toward wind turbines, particularly the 800-foot ocean variety.

Trump’s Day 1 executive order freezing new leases does not immediately affect projects that already hold leases — except by creating an uncertainty that can scare away investors who already were looking at a long and uncertain path for cost recovery during the supportive years of the Biden administration.

The order directed “a comprehensive review of the ecological, economic and environmental necessity of terminating or amending any existing wind energy leases, identifying any legal bases for such removal.”

Dominion told RTO Insider in late 2024 that CVOW has enjoyed bipartisan support through multiple state and federal administrations in its yearslong progression from concept to plan to two-turbine pilot project to full-scale steel in the water.

“Bipartisan leaders agree it has been an economic boom for Virginia, creating thousands of jobs and stimulating billions in economic growth, while providing consumers with reliable and affordable energy,” a spokesperson said in December. “Leaders from both parties also agree on the importance of American energy dominance, maintaining our technological superiority and creating good-paying jobs for Americans.”

In its Feb. 3 update, Dominion repeated this message and noted CVOW will advance one of Trump’s stated priorities — dominance in artificial intelligence — by helping power the world’s largest concentration of data centers.