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January 22, 2025

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ERCOT Forecasts Highest March Risk of EEAs in Early Evening

ERCOT‘s Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) report for March predicts the highest risk of an energy emergency alert (EEA) in the month will occur around 7 p.m. Central time, an ERCOT representative said in a webinar hosted by the Texas Reliability Entity on Jan. 21. 

However, the overall likelihood of an emergency in the month is likely to remain low. 

Pete Warnken, ERCOT’s resource adequacy manager, shared the report during the regional entity’s monthly Talk with Texas RE webinar, as part of a presentation on the grid operator’s reliability assessments for the winter months. NERC Manager of Reliability Assessment Mark Olson also took part in the call to discuss the ERO’s Winter Reliability Assessment and Long-Term Reliability Assessment, with a focus on their implications for the Texas energy grid. 

ERCOT develops each MORA two months ahead of the month covered, based on data provided by ERCOT, its market participants and the grid operator’s consultants. MORA releases are targeted for the first Friday of the month; the March outlook was published Jan. 9. 

The MORA evaluates resource adequacy in two ways: first, by determining the risk ERCOT may need to issue an EEA or begin to order controlled outages for the monthly peak load day; and second, by evaluating the extent to which resource capacity can provide sufficient operating reserves for the hour with the highest risk of a reserve shortage. ERCOT does not specify a date for the peak load day. 

According to the March MORA, the chance of an EEA — defined as the probability of capacity available for operating reserves (CAFOR) being less than 2,500 MW — on March’s peak load day will be 6.31% at 7 p.m. Central time, the highest likelihood of the day. The chance of ordering controlled outages, which matches the probability of CAFOR being less than 1,500 MW, also will be highest at that time, around 5.42%. 

Warnken observed that while this level does not rise to what ERCOT would consider an elevated risk — which would mean a 10% or greater probability of issuing an EEA — it is higher than what the operator has seen in previous years for the same time period. This also was true of the February MORA, which he shared for comparison’s sake. 

“You’ll notice that for … almost every hour, you do see a probability greater than zero,” Warnken said. “This is something that we weren’t seeing last year for a monthly report. And what explains this is, there’s been a lot of new loads being added to the system … things like data centers [and] AI computing facilities that run basically around the clock. And because they’re high loads for every hour, that risk [of having insufficient reserves] increases for the hours beyond what you typically see.” 

Warnken also discussed ERCOT’s upcoming Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, which the ISO normally publishes twice a year. Because of “significant methodology changes” introduced since the last CDR in May 2024, ERCOT delayed the planned December release to the middle of February to ensure the report’s quality. (See Texas PUC Shelves PCM Design Over Lack of Benefits.) 

The biggest change to the report’s methodology is the use of effective load carrying capability (ELCC), defined as the expected reliability benefits of inverter-based resources during the hours with the highest risk of loss-of-load events, rather than using the historic availability of wind and solar facilities during peak load hours as in previous reports. Warnken said this approach will provide greater granularity into the effect of individual wind and solar facilities on the system, as well as battery energy storage systems. 

Additional updates include revising the criteria for including planned resources in the CDR. Previous iterations of the report previously required material such as a signed interconnection agreement, adequate water supplies, and air permits; on top of these, the CDR now will require notification to ERCOT that a project developer has provided financial security for facility construction to the transmission provider, and that the transmission provider has received a notice to proceed with interconnection construction. 

“One of the issues that we’ve had is that we’ve overestimated the amount of planned capacity forecasted,” Warnken said, noting that construction often is canceled or delayed on generation projects. “What we wanted to do is, add a couple of additional criteria to make sure that [we’re] less likely [to go] off the mark because of all these postponed projects.” 

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Ørsted Takes $1.7B Impairment on US Offshore Wind

Ørsted has announced new problems and an additional $1.7 billion in impairments for its U.S. offshore wind portfolio. 

And that was before President Trump took office and fired off an executive order creating a whole new world of hurt for the struggling U.S. offshore wind sector. 

The world’s leading offshore wind developer said Jan. 20 that increases in long-dated U.S. interest rates, decreases in the value of seabed leases, and delays and cost escalations expected with the Sunrise Wind project will cost 4.3 billion, 3.5 billion and 4.3 billion Danish Krone, respectively, or $1.69 billion (U.S.) total. 

During a conference call with financial analysts Jan. 21, CEO Mads Nipper said he would not speculate on the impact of Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order but it did not contribute to the impairments. 

The news is the latest in a series of financial blows in the U.S. market for the Danish wind power developer, which has seen its stock value crater as one problem after another carries impacts sometimes ranging in the hundreds of millions of dollars. 

Ørsted has canceled offtake contracts for New York and Maryland offshore wind farms and canceled a New Jersey project outright amid inflation and supply chain pressures. 

It’s running into cost increases and delays on its Revolution Wind project, now under construction off the New England coast, as well as for Sunrise Wind, which has begun onshore construction in New York. 

Ørsted had a landmark success in 2024 when its South Fork Wind project became the first utility-scale offshore wind farm to come online in U.S. waters. It, too, ran into cost escalations, but it’s a very small facility, rated at only 132 MW. 

During the conference call, an analyst noted that Ørsted had a stellar track record in Europe and Taiwan. “So can you in any way try to help us” understand, he asked, “why it is that in the U.S., execution just seems to continue to go wrong almost quarter by quarter?” 

Nipper replied: “It is very disappointing that we are running into these, but it is simply the immature and nascent industry of both the supply chain and the execution setup of the U.S. practice compared to any other place we operate in the world, most notably Europe.” 

Nipper told analysts he would take questions only on the impairment, but was asked nonetheless about Trump’s executive order. 

“Because it was issued late last night, we are in the process of reviewing it to assess the impact of our portfolio,” Nipper said. “That’s all we have to say at this stage.” 

The impairment resulting from interest rates is fairly straightforward — it is a capital-intensive business and capital became more expensive, Nipper explained. 

The impairment on the value of Ørsted’s seabed leases off the New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland coasts is the result of the company looking at market uncertainties and deciding to mark down the value. 

The election of a president determined to halt offshore wind development might seem to have played some factor in that loss of value, but Nipper made no such connection. 

“I want to highlight that we believe the leases continue to hold strategic optionality and value based on the long-term potential of the U.S. offshore market,” he said. 

The Sunrise impairment is less straightforward, more entangled in the challenges of standing up a new industry on a continent without an ecosystem to support it. 

Nipper explained: 

Completion of the first U.S.-built wind turbine installation vessel was delayed, forcing Ørsted to shuttle components of Revolution and Sunrise around on barges to remain compliant with the Jones Act.  

The barge model is slower and less efficient because it is more vulnerable to foul weather, especially in winter. The construction of Sunrise is expected to span two winters. 

Based on experiences so far this winter with Revolution, Sunrise likely will take longer than expected to build and therefore require a longer charter of vessels and crews, which come with a high daily cost. 

Finally, the HVDC export cable was found to be defective and needed to be remanufactured — leading to a delay in load-out and installation, and therefore another escalation of vessel and crew costs. 

All of this has depleted the Sunrise contingency budget, necessitating the new impairment. 

Despite all that, Sunrise remains a money-making proposition, with an expected internal rate of return in the mid-single digits over its lifetime, Nipper said. 

He cautioned, however, that this could change: “This assessment does not take into account any potential initiatives of the incoming U.S. administration.” 

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Company Briefs

SPP Names Lucas New COO

SPP has announced that Antoine Lucas will become its executive vice president and chief operating officer, effective April 1. 

Lucas joined SPP in 2007 and currently serves as vice president of markets. He will succeed current COO Lanny Nickell, who was selected to serve as SPP’s new president and CEO. 

More: SPP 

Convergent Closes DOE Loan for Puerto Rico Renewables

Convergent Energy and Power received $584.5 million under the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office to support its plan to install solar and battery storage in Puerto Rico. 

The company intends to build a 100-MW solar park with 55 MW of battery storage in the municipalities of Caguas, Penuelas and Ponce. 

More: Renewables Now 

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Federal Briefs

Federal Reserve Quits Global Climate Risk Group Ahead of Trump Presidency

The Federal Reserve last week announced it had withdrawn from a network of global financial regulators focused on climate change risks just days before President-elect Donald Trump returns to power. 

The central bank formally joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System in December 2020, shortly after President Biden was elected. The group was formed to help central banks and other regulators exchange ideas and research to account for climate-related risks in the financial sector. 

While the Fed initially supported the network’s goals, the bank said it decided to leave after the group’s work “increasingly broadened in scope, covering a wider range of issues that are outside of the board’s statutory mandate.” The decision was not unanimous. 

More: The New York Times 

SCOTUS Declines to Hear from Oil, Gas Companies Trying to Block Climate Lawsuits

The Supreme Court said it won’t hear an appeal from oil and gas companies trying to block lawsuits seeking to hold the industry liable for billions of dollars in damage linked to climate change. 

The order allows a Honolulu lawsuit against oil and gas companies to proceed. Governments in California, Colorado and New Jersey are also seeking billions of dollars in damages from wildfires, rising sea levels and severe storms. 

The companies, which include Sunoco, Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP, appealed to the Supreme Court after Hawaii’s highest court allowed the lawsuit to proceed. The companies argued emissions are a national issue that should instead be fought over in federal court. 

More: The Associated Press 

PHMSA Announces Proposed Rule for CO2 Pipeline Safety

The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) last week announced a notice of proposed rule making to strengthen guidelines for carbon dioxide pipelines. 

The proposed rule would apply to carbon dioxide transported in a supercritical liquid state through pipelines and establish guidelines for pipelines transporting gaseous CO2. If adopted, the rule would require CO2 pipeline operators to train emergency responders and ensure local first responders have the necessary detection equipment in the event of an emergency, among other things. The department said the proposed rules respond to a “significant anticipated” need of what it estimates could be a 10-fold increase in carbon capture and storage infrastructure by 2050. 

The rules are open to public comment for 60 days, after which the agency will issue its final rules.  

More: Iowa Capital Dispatch 

BLM Approves Rough Hat Clark Solar Project

The Bureau of Land Management last week approved the Rough Hat Clark Solar Project in Nevada. 

The 400-MW project will cover about 2,469 acres of public land west of Las Vegas. It will also offer 700 MW of battery storage. 

More: KLAS 

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State Briefs

CALIFORNIA 

Most of State’s Destructive Fires Were Caused by Power Lines

Since 1992, more than 3,600 wildfires in California have been related to power generation, transmission and distribution, according to data from the U.S. Forest Service. 

At least eight of the state’s 20 most destructive wildfires in terms of structures destroyed had either electrical or power line causes, including No. 1 (Camp Fire) and No. 2 (Tubbs Fire), according to CalFire. The current Palisades and Eaton fires, which would rank No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, are still under investigation. 

More: The New York Times 

Residents Evacuated Following Moss Landing Battery Fire

Some 1,200 residents were evacuated and later allowed to return home following a major fire at the Vistra battery storage plant in Moss Landing. 

The fire was reported around 3 p.m. on Jan. 16. Residents near the area were forced to evacuate but were allowed to return home the following night. Fire crews did not engage with the fire but rather waited for it to burn out on its own, as lithium battery fires are notoriously difficult to extinguish. The cause of the fire has not been determined. 

Monterey County Sheriff Tina Nieto said there had been no injuries reported and none of the air quality monitoring systems picked up on any dangerous gases in the air. 

More: The Mercury News 

KENTUCKY 

Savion Starts up Solar Farm at Former Coal Mine

Solar and energy storage developer Savion announced commercial operations have begun at its 111-MW Martin County Solar Project. 

The project is located on the site of the former Martiki coal mine. 

More: Renewables Now 

MAINE 

Utility Committee Backs Nominee for Public Advocate

The Legislature’s Energy, Utilities and Technology Committee voted 7-5 to nominate Heather Sanborn as the state’s next public advocate. 

The former state legislator was nominated by Gov. Janet Mills to succeed Bill Harwood, who announced he will retire at the end of January. 

The committee’s recommendation will go to the Senate for final approval. 

More: Maine Morning Star 

MASSACHUSETTS 

BOEM Issues Final Permit for SouthCoast Wind Project

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management last week approved the Construction and Operations Plan for the SouthCoast Wind project. 

While originally intended to have 147 turbines, the project will be equipped with 141 machines that will be installed within a lease area covering 127,388 acres. The turbine number was reduced to lower potential impacts on foraging habitat and displacement of wildlife. 

More: Renewables Now 

NEBRASKA 

Senator Introduces Proposal to Create Office of Climate Action

Sen. Ashlei Spivey (D-District 13) has introduced legislation that would create an Office of Climate Action under the state’s Department of Environment and Energy. 

The office would create a climate action plan, coordinate federal grants and monitor how legislation passed the prior year impacts the environment. 

Committee hearings will begin Jan. 22. 

More: Nebraska Public Media 

SOUTH DAKOTA

Representative to Introduce Legislation Blocking Eminent Domain for Carbon Pipelines

Rep. Karla Lems (R) announced she will introduce a bill intended to ban the use of eminent domain for carbon pipeline projects. 

Incoming Sen. Mark Lapka (R) will carry the bill in the Senate, while Lems will carry the bill in the House. Both own land that would be crossed by the pipeline. 

Residents have voiced frustration over Summit Carbon Solutions’ potential use of eminent domain to acquire land for its proposed pipeline. The $9 billion project would capture carbon dioxide in five states and transport it to an underground storage area in North Dakota. 

More: South Dakota Searchlight 

TEXAS 

PUC Approves Entergy Grid Upgrades

The Public Utility Commission last week approved Entergy’s Future Ready Resiliency Plan. 

The first phase of the grid-enhancing plan, which includes $137 million in projects to reduce outages and storm restoration costs, will be implemented over three years and is projected to reduce outage times by an estimated 1 billion minutes over the next 50 years. 

More: MyTexasDaily.com 

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Trump to Declare ‘National Energy Emergency’ to Ramp up Oil, Gas Production

Minutes after he was sworn in as 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump pledged to bring down energy prices by immediately declaring a “National Energy Emergency” and signaled his intention to rapidly increase production of oil and gas to underpin both economic growth and national security.

“We will drill baby, drill,” Trump said in his 30-minute inaugural address. “America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have: the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth. And we are going to use it. … We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again, right to the top, and export American energy all over the world. We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it.”

Trump also pledged to end the “Green New Deal” and “electric vehicle mandate,” terms which he and Republican lawmakers have used as negative labels for former President Joe Biden’s clean energy policies and the EV tax credits and other incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Following the inauguration, the White House provided an outline of the energy emergency declaration and other expected executive actions on energy policy.

The apparent intent of the emergency declaration would be to “use all necessary resources to build critical infrastructure.” Other actions would be focused on streamlining permitting and reviewing for potential rollback all regulations resulting in “undue burdens” on energy production and use, as well as on mining for “non-fuel” minerals.

The White House did not specifically state whether the declaration would lift any of the Biden administration’s restrictions on LNG export facilities or oil and gas leasing on federal lands, or whether Trump’s definition of critical infrastructure will include high-voltage interregional transmission.

EPA’s finalized limits on power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions likely will fall into the regulations considered undue burdens.

As expected, Trump also once again will withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 U.N. Paris Agreement on climate change, aimed at limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. (See Trump Pulling U.S. Out of Paris Climate Accord.)

A long-time opponent of wind power, he also intends to end leasing for wind farms on federal land, which could include both on- and offshore leasing.

Finally, the president will “empower consumer choice” in EVs and a range of household appliances, including washing machines, dishwashers, showerheads and toilets, likely through potential rollbacks of federal energy-efficiency standards.

The White House had yet to announce the signing of any executive orders as of press time.

Appointments

The White House did announce a series of presidential appointments and nominations for acting leaders and subcabinet positions, respectively.

At DOE, Ingrid Kolb will be acting secretary of energy, pending confirmation of Trump’s nominee, Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. A career administrator, Kolb has directed DOE’s Office of Management since 2005.

Another career administrator, Walter Cruickshank, will become acting secretary of the interior, pending the confirmation of former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Cruickshank currently is deputy director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

Preston Wells Griffith, who served as a special adviser on energy and acting assistant secretary of energy during the first Trump administration, has been nominated to be DOE’s undersecretary for infrastructure, replacing David Crane.

And Dario Gil, senior vice president and director of research at IBM, has been tapped as DOE’s undersecretary for science, replacing Geraldine Richmond.

LPO’s Last Hurrah

Trump may have limited ability to claw back IRA tax credits and incentives. According to a final “Investing in America” report from the Biden administration, about $100 billion, or 90%, of IRA funding available through the end of 2024 has been “obligated” with signed contracts, which will make any claw back attempts difficult.

The report also noted that EPA had obligated all of the $27 billion it received for the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, with $20 billion going to a national clean energy funding network of community development banks and $7 billion going to the Solar for All program, aimed at funding solar projects for low-income communities.

DOE’s Loan Programs Office pushed through a final surge of deals, announcing three loans with final contracts totaling more than $16.5 billion on Jan. 17, including:

    • $15 billion to Pacific Gas and Electric for its Project Polaris, which will upgrade transmission with grid-enhancing technologies, increase hydropower and energy storage, and deploy virtual power plants;
    • $996 million to Ioneer to develop its Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada, which will produce lithium carbonate to be used in EV batteries; and
    • $584.5 million to Convergent Energy and Power for utility-scale solar and storage projects to improve grid resilience in Puerto Rico.

In one of his final reports as LPO director, Jigar Shah said the office has a pipeline of more than 160 applications seeking more than $200 billion in loan guarantees for a range of projects.

Reactions

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), co-chairs of the U.S. Climate Alliance, stated that “we will continue America’s work to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and slash climate pollution.”

Formed after the first withdrawal in 2017, the Climate Alliance is a bipartisan organization of U.S. governors from states that have committed to reducing emissions in line with the agreement.

“Our states and territories continue to have broad authority under the U.S. Constitution to protect our progress and advance the climate solutions we need. This does not change with a shift in federal administration,” Hochul and Grisham wrote in a Jan. 20 letter to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Andrew deLaski, executive director of the Appliance Standards Awareness Project, said Trump’s plans to roll back appliance efficiency standards “would not help families and would only raise their total costs.”

“Test after test has found that efficient new dishwashers, washing machines and showerheads perform far better than old models,” deLaski said.

Heather O’Neill, CEO of Advanced Energy United, called on Trump to recognize that his “promise to achieve greater energy abundance in America must include leveraging the incredible, proven power of advanced energy technologies.”

“Our power grid faces real challenges, and at a moment when wildfires and extreme temperatures threaten lives across the country, it’s clearer than ever that we need to deepen our investments in advanced energy solutions that increase resilience and lower costs,” O’Neill said. “We urge the administration to embrace the market forces and tax cuts that are empowering states to meet their energy needs and goals.”

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SPP MOPC Briefs: Jan. 15, 2025

Real-time Dispatchable Transactions

The SPP Markets and Operations Policy Committee on Jan. 15 approved tariff revisions that would implement dispatchable transactions in the real-time energy market.

Dispatchable transactions, already instituted in the RTO’s day-ahead market, allow market participants to submit dynamic schedules, which SPP evaluates and dispatches economically. RR653, passed with 95.56% stakeholder approval, essentially would extend the existing dynamic interchange transaction framework to the Real-Time Balancing Market.

The goal, said Yasser Bahbaz, SPP senior director of market development, is to increase market participation, especially at the seams. Market participants could change their bids and offers up to 30 minutes prior to the operating hour. “The advantage here is that now we would have a transaction product in real time that we could economically assess and dispatch in real time, and we’d determine whether it’s economically favorable to serve our market,” Bahbaz said.

“Because it is a dispatchable transaction, the market will have every opportunity to assess that transaction,” Bahbaz said in addressing some stakeholder concerns. “So we think this is better than having fixed schedules, in some ways, because we would be able to assess ramp, and to the extent that we can take in imports or have exports, it would be co-optimized with what we have. … The nice thing about this product is that it is fully flexible.”

Steve Sanders, strategic adviser for the Western Area Power Administration, said that while the organization was supportive of the product’s concept, “this proposal is not there yet. It lacks the effectiveness of market-to-market seams coordination and zonal resource optimization, with several risks to both product manipulation, effects to internal market optimization, and reliability during abnormal or emergency operating conditions.”

“I think we are committed to solving these issues together with staff” and the Market Monitoring Unit before the proposal is filed with FERC, Sanders continued. “Our goal would be that, to the extent that we have a product that would pass the FERC hurdle and provide benefits to the market and not create issues, that would be a desirable outcome.”

American Electric Power’s Richard Ross — chair of the Market Working Group, which recommended approval of the revisions — asked Bahbaz whether any of WAPA’s concerns gave SPP pause in moving forward with them. “Do you think we need to do additional work as a group before this is approved, or can we overcome these concerns during the FERC filing?”

“From SPP’s standpoint here, I think it’s important for us to move this forward,” Bahbaz answered.

Jodi Woods, SPP director of market monitoring, said the RTO addressed many of the MMU’s concerns with the proposal, “but we do still have some outstanding ones that we’re continuing to monitor. … We’re going to follow it through implementation … including potentially recommending additional tariff language.”

Extension for FERC Order 881 Implementation

The MOPC approved asking FERC for an extension to comply with certain requirements of Order 881, from July 12 this year to Sept. 1, 2026.

Issued in 2022, Order 881 directs transmission owners and providers to end the use of static line ratings, and to use ambient-adjusted ratings (AARs) and seasonal ratings instead. FERC allowed three years to implement the requirements.

In December 2023, FERC found that SPP’s plan was mostly in compliance but that it had not properly explained whether and, if so, how the use of AARs would affect existing market processes (ER22-2339).

Since then, the RTO’s Ambient Adjusted Ratings Implementation Task Force has worked to develop the timelines and other requirements for the calculation and implementation of AARs. But members of the task force recommended to the Operations Reliability Working Group (ORWG) that based on TO readiness, staff should request an extension to comply with the AAR requirements.

Based on a survey conducted Dec. 20, 2024, only 24% of members said they would be ready on SPP’s targeted go-live date of July 1. According to the ORWG, a minimum of 67% of impacted members, and a minimum of 90% of impacted lines and flowgates (“critical mass”), are needed for implementation.

It also wants more time for testing, preferably not while SPP works to integrate RTO West, and avoiding a peak season for implementation.

Responding to COO Lanny Nickell on how the Sept. 1 date was chosen, SPP’s Charles Cates said staff were confident that implementation could not be achieved any earlier than April 1, 2026. “But they also don’t want us to take too much time.”

Advanced Power Alliance’s Steve Gaw asked if SPP had any idea how much delaying implementation of AARs, which he noted can reduce transmission congestion, would cost.

Cates answered that it would be “minimal to none. The budget that we have accounted for the project, we are not anticipating to change at this time. There may be some additional staff costs as we implement this, but those will be embedded.”

“That was a great answer to a question I didn’t ask,” Gaw replied. “My question was, how much are we potentially costing the market by not implementing 881 in a timely manner?”

“We’re not sure. We have not done in a while an ambient-adjusted market study,” Cates said.

Gaw then noted the survey showed that 71% of members said they would be ready by Dec. 1, 2025, surpassing staff’s 67% threshold. “Why did you all feel like that that wasn’t a better date, at least to get us up and running sooner with this?” he asked. “I think FERC might scrutinize this fairly significantly because of the extent of the delay.”

Cates responded by saying staff expected SPP’s request to be among the shorter extensions among the RTOs, with some asking for up to 2028, “and I certainly understand why.” Specific to SPP, “we have a lot of deliveries coming for the West integration. So we need to be very careful with how we stage this and not interact with that project.”

The Natural Resources Defense Council’s Christy Walsh also noted the survey results and wondered how much of that 71% actually would be ready in October. “I understand you don’t want to implement something new in the middle of winter — that makes complete sense — but we’re constantly hearing we have a resource adequacy problem. … If we have 71% of people ready to free up some transmission constraints on the transmission system where we have more resources adequacy, that just seems like an easy win,” she said.

Evergy’s Jeremy Harris, chair of ORWG, noted that under SPP’s current timeline for implementation, its ratings database, the Limit Exchange Portal (LEP), was supposed to have begun testing Nov. 1. It still has not been delivered. “So from a TO/TOP perspective, we have little faith in SPP’s timeline, and we need this extension because we will need to connect to it, and SPP doesn’t even have the tool.”

“That still doesn’t explain to me why we have a survey that says 71% think they’ll be ready by the end of this year,” Walsh countered. “I’m hearing separately, ‘but not really.’”

Harris responded that he expected that if the survey were conducted today, there would be fewer members saying they would be ready based on the fact that the LEP tool still was not ready.

The extension request was approved with 94.44% support.

Expedited Resource Adequacy Process

In a relatively close vote, the committee endorsed developing a proposal to create a one-time process to quickly add generation to meet load-responsible entities’ resource adequacy needs outside of SPP’s generator interconnection procedures.

“Given the concerns by some stakeholders to come up with a process to meet those [RA] needs,” SPP’s Steve Purdy said.

The proposal largely is based on MISO’s Expedited Resource Adequacy Study, which it hopes to file by February. (See MISO Tells Board RA Fast Lane in Interconnection Queue is a Must.) Both essentially would create a “fast lane” for projects that are deemed necessary to maintain reliability.

In SPP’s case, the projects would be determined by the LREs themselves. And the RTO is relying on its Regional State Committee’s endorsement “to undergird and provide justification for the deviation from established FERC policy,” Purdy said. “It’s not truly a GI study; it’s a resource adequacy study that involves interconnection of new resources,” though it would follow certain procedures for studying projects.

The process would be open to any generator type, though there would be a capacity ceiling determined by SPP based on LREs’ load projections. Projects would be required to have a proposed commercial operation date within five years of its submission; if SPP’s preferred timeline is approved, that would be by 2030.

The goal is for the MOPC to approve the formal revision request in April, with RSC and Board of Directors approval in May.

“I think SPP staff has done a remarkable job in a very short time,” Golden Spread Electric Cooperative’s Mike Wise said. “I think this is a good example of SPP staff responding to stakeholders’ concerns and developing a product that really can meet their needs.”

Other stakeholders representing LREs voiced their support. But several stakeholders voiced opposition based on the ongoing work on SPP’s Consolidated Planning Process (CPP).

APA’s Gaw said, “We really don’t know what this exact proposal is going to look like when it gets into [revision request] form. We’ve got serious concerns with this proposal for a number of reasons,” among them being that stakeholders already have spent “countless hours” on the CPP, but this new proposal seemed to be taking precedence.

He also argued that MISO is letting states determine their RA needs, while “this is entirely left up to the load-responsible entities, and I don’t know how the states are going to be able to manage ensuring consumer protections.”

“CPP is something that would address a lot of the concerns that we have right now, and MISO is not in the same position as SPP is,” AES’ Shilpi Sunil Kumar said. “I would request staff to keep that in mind, that we don’t need to do exactly as MISO is doing because their concerns and problems are different.”

Invenergy’s Arash Ghodsian said that, as he told MISO with its proposal, “we need some transparency on some of the details” about the affected-system aspect. “There’s probably room for some improvement, but the details at this point are very important if we’re going to provide support.”

Purdy responded that SPP likely would need to propose revisions to its Joint Operating Agreement with MISO.

Lucas to Succeed Nickell as COO

Nickell opened what he said likely would be his last MOPC meeting as the committee’s secretary with a brief speech as he prepares to take over for SPP CEO Barbara Sugg on April 1.

“I’m super excited — really excited — to be SPP’s next CEO; to have the opportunity to lead this organization,” Nickell said. “My goal for SPP is really simple: … I want SPP to be the best. The best RTO in the country. That really shouldn’t be that hard to do because we already have the best employees, and we already have the best stakeholders.”

After his remarks, Nickell announced that Antoine Lucas, vice president of markets, will take over as COO.

“I’m really excited about this new opportunity, particularly the increased role in the stakeholder process that comes along with it,” Lucas said.

Nickell also reminded attendees of SPP’s inaugural Energy Synergy Summit, announced the previous day, to be held March 3-4 in Dallas.

In its announcement, the RTO billed the event as “a deep dive into resource adequacy, load and generation interconnection, grid modernization, and the policies and partnerships needed to support them.”

“This is going to be a tremendous opportunity for our stakeholders and anyone who’s interested in … figuring out how to add resources quicker while doing it reliably, and adding load, not only quicker but also reliably,” Nickell said. “Trying to meet both the expectations that I know a lot of our members have: ‘I need more resources, and I want to serve this load that I know is coming.’ That is what the purpose of this summit is: to talk about both those issues.”

Nickell was asked whether this would be the first in an annual series. “I suspect that we’ll need to do that,” he replied, though he seemed to imply this new event really is a continuation of the RTO’s Resource Adequacy Summit, held in 2023. “This time we thought, ‘Man, we need to combine the topics of resource adequacy and load growth, and specifically the kind of load growth that we’re seeing … with big data centers.”

The deadline for registration is Feb. 24, while the special room rate for the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport Marriott, where the conference will be held, ends Feb. 10.

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President Trump Names Mark Christie as FERC Chair

President Donald Trump named Mark Christie as FERC chair, hours after he was sworn in during a ceremony in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda.

“I am honored to be appointed FERC chairman by President Trump,” Christie wrote on X. “For four years I have emphasized protecting consumers from excessive power bills, meeting the reliability crisis driven by losses of dispatchable generation and failure to build new generation, in the face of rising demand.”

Meeting those priorities will be his first priority, and Christie added he believes states should be “full partners with FERC” in protecting consumers and ensuring reliability.

The President can pick the FERC chair from among sitting commissioners. The move means former Chair Willie Phillips will become just another commissioner, if he decides to stay. In his last press conference at the helm of the agency Jan. 16, Phillips declined to publicly discuss his plans.

“I told you all from the beginning: Reliability is job No. 1 of the commission,” Phillips said. “I am very proud of the work we’ve done to protect the reliability of our system for our nation.”

Phillips’ term runs through June 2026. If he stays on, Christie will work with a 3-2 Democratic majority for the first year and a half. Christie was appointed by Trump in July 2020, and his term expires this June, though he could be renominated. Even if he is not, he can stay until the end of the year when Congress adjourns absent a replacement being confirmed.

Christie said in an interview that the new job is “an awesome responsibility” and though he was chair of the Virginia State Corporation Commission, FERC is at a bigger scale.

“And the biggest thing you know at my age is you realize how many — literally millions of people — are going to be affected by what you do,” he said. “I mean, what we do affects their monthly power bills, and that is a tremendously daunting challenge. We’ve got to make sure that we do everything we can to minimize the impact on the people’s monthly power bills.”

Reliability will continue to be a big focus under Christie, as demand is growing while power plants continue to retire. He has talked about a reliability crisis in public remarks for several years.

“It is absolutely deteriorating, and that’s not my opinion,” Christie said. “We see that in the reports from NERC. You see it in the reports from the RTOs, like PJM. We continue to lose the very resources we need to keep the lights on and the heat pumps going.”

With a cold front hitting the East Coast this week, PJM could break its all-time winter demand record and has fewer resources than it did last year, he added.

FERC has no control over why demand is going up, which largely is due to the expansion of data centers in the development of artificial intelligence.

“We have to accept that we have to serve load, and that’s going to mean keeping the generating resources that we need and stopping the retirements and building the new resources,” Christie said. “Those are big issues, and we have to address them. It really is supply and demand. It’s no more complicated than that.”

Tightening supply and expanding demand generally means higher prices, so Christie will look for ways to control those. One position he’s made clear in numerous dissents is that transmission incentives should be reined in. He also said he wants to address local transmission projects, which in PJM are 80% of the recent construction and often are lightly regulated. (See How FERC Under Trump Might Advance Energy Affordability in 2025.)

“As a utility regulator, I know that you’re always faced with the challenge of balancing the need for utility assets like transmission and generation with the need to keep costs down for customers,” Christie said. “And it’s a tough balance … but it’s what utility regulators do.”

One issue that roiled the FERC world after Trump’s election was his campaign promise to remake how the federal workforce is overseen. What that means for an independent regulatory agency like the commission remains to be seen. (See Chatterjee Post Leads to Worries About FERC’s Independence, Staff Exodus.)

Without any formal guidance from the White House on the federal workforce front, Christie declined to comment.

While the administration and Senate have changed parties and that will have an effect on FERC, by design it will not have as big an impact as on other executive agencies.

“Things don’t change overnight at FERC, because obviously we’re a multi-member commission, and you have to have a majority to do anything,” Christie said. “But I think there’s a lot of agreement among my colleagues on the need to address these issues.”

Trump also Elevates Wright to NRC Chair

Christie is not the only former state regulator to get a promotion on a federal regulatory agency. Trump tapped David Wright to be chair of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the same announcement. Wright has been on the NRC since 2018 and was on the Public Service Commission of South Carolina from 2004 to 2013, which included a stint as chair.

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Counterflow: A Climate ‘Game of Chicken’

It has become increasingly clear that environmentalists are engaged in a game of chicken, with Earth in the balance.

The environmental community by and large will not tolerate any consideration of Plan B, solar geoengineering (such as sand or salt in the stratosphere), which I’ve discussed before, contending this would discourage measures necessary to get to net zero (Plan A).

Gale Force Headwinds for Plan A

Meanwhile, the world isn’t adopting the requisite Plan A measures for a slew of reasons, such as the reality that renewable resources are expensive, especially when they have to be firmed up by storage to cover renewable droughts. And we need to remember that higher electric rates are themselves deadly.

Steve Huntoon

Carbon dioxide is the ultimate negative externality, meaning that any given reduction by any individual, state or even country provides no particular benefit to whoever makes the reduction. And that’s assuming that carbon reduction measures actually work — a Herculean assumption given actual results over the past 20 years.

And it won’t be enough to reverse the annual increase in the world’s carbon emissions (whenever that might happen). As The Economist points out, “what matters to the climate is not the rate of emissions, but the cumulative total. Until that stabilizes, all other things being equal, temperatures will continue to increase.”

Please note that Plan B need not last long if the environmental community is right that renewable energy actually is cheaper than fossil fuel energy or will become so. But so far that’s not what the world is experiencing, as I’ve discussed and as a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed piece reinforced.

The Fear Factor

Let me address one other objection to solar geoengineering — that it might do scary things (just plug it into Google and you’ll get a parade of horribles). This objection ignores that we have been putting toxic aerosols like sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere for a couple of hundred years. As I discussed before, these toxic aerosols have greatly reduced global warming from what it otherwise would be, and the recent reduction in toxic aerosols due to regulation is greatly adding to global warming from what it otherwise would be. Yes, it’s ironic.

The key takeaway is that solar geoengineering could replace the toxic aerosols of the past with non-toxic aerosols like sand or salt. Not very scary.

Wrapping up

Where does that leave us? Because the environmental community cannot change the economic fundamentals driving decisions by most of the world, it should reconsider its demand that the world suffer the consequences of these decisions. The environmental community should constructively engage on Plan B.

The impossible dream should not be the enemy of the possible good.

P.S. For something completely different: If you’re a fan of classic rock, I’ve compiled, dare I say it, “iconic” videos from that bygone era.  And best wishes for the new year!

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PUC Steers VT Legislature Away from Clean Heat Standard

Vermont’s Public Utility Commission continues to shy away from the Clean Heat Standard mandated in a landmark 2023 law. 

The PUC on Jan. 15 reported to the state Legislature that while the standard (with changes) would be “theoretically workable … the commission does not believe that this program is well suited to Vermont.” 

The PUC recommended that legislators consider other ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — such as a fuel tax, thermal efficiency benefit charge or a biofuel blending requirement, or some combination of these or other alternatives. 

A few months earlier, the PUC determined the credit-trading system envisioned in the legislation would be costly and complex and that it made no sense for a small state to create such a system on its own. (See Vermont PUC Rejects Heating Fuel Credit Trading Concept.) 

In the Jan. 15 report, the PUC said its task — study the costs and benefits of the system while designing it — was complex and difficult and that its conclusions should be treated as a very rough estimate. 

With that caveat, it said the Clean Heat Standard could carry program costs of $956 million in its first decade, with an impact on fuel oil prices gradually rising from 8 cents per gallon in the first year to 58 cents in the 10th year. 

The estimated value of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions yielded by the standard over the same decade would be $477 million. 

The PUC said its recommended alternative mechanisms would be less complex and have lower administrative costs than the Clean Heat Standard. 

The fuel tax option would be simple and efficient, the PUC said, as it would be an expansion of the fuel tax mechanism that for many years has been sending money to the low-income Weatherization Trust Fund. 

A thermal efficiency benefit charge could function similarly to the electric energy efficiency charge collected by the state’s electric distribution utilities and could run alongside the fuel tax that fuel dealers collect. 

Neither of these alternatives would achieve the greenhouse gas emissions reductions required under the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2020, the PUC wrote, but increasing the amount of biofuel burned in Vermont would accomplish this, and a blending requirement could be complementary to the fees. 

Legislators now must decide whether or how to implement the Clean Heat Standard. Democrats still control both chambers of the Legislature but have lost seats since 2023, when they overrode a veto by Gov. Phil Scott (R) to make the Clean Heat Standard a law. 

Local media reports suggest legislators remain concerned about the financial impacts of such a system, particularly on lower-income Vermonters who spend a larger portion of their income heating their homes during the state’s long, cold winters.  

Vermont has among the highest percentages of homes heated with fuel oil of any state.