Page 50 of the 2025 Sustainable Energy Factbook absolutely nails the unevenness of electricity demand growth across the U.S. The two charts on the page show that demand growth in ERCOT is concentrated in the far west and northern parts of Texas, while in PJM, the spike is almost exclusively in Northern Virginia.
The jump in demand in Texas is due to “the electrification of the oil and gas sector in the far west predominantly; also, bitcoin mining has contributed,” said Tom Rowlands-Rees, head of research for North America at BloombergNEF, which compiles the annual report. “In PJM, it’s data centers.”
“A lot of people’s expectations of power are that it is growing … [but] this load growth is concentrated in certain regions typically,” Rowlands-Rees said, during an advance media briefing on the report, released Feb. 20 by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. “That nuance is important. It’s not everywhere.”
The 13th edition of the BCSE Factbook comes, as always, packed with charts, figures and industry insights, many of which stand in sharp contrast to President Donald Trump’s focus on fossil fuels and U.S. energy dominance. Rowlands-Rees called it “a snapshot of where things were at the end of the previous administration; so, that as we talk about what’s going to be happening in the future with a new administration, we actually have a benchmark against which to compare, a true picture of where things were and where they weren’t.”
With demand growth forming the backdrop for the U.S. clean energy industry at this point, BCSE President Lisa Jacobson stressed the need for a broad, all-of-the-above portfolio. “Energy efficiency, natural gas and renewable energy are the growth sectors of the U.S. economy, and as we move into a phase of anticipated increased energy demand, this portfolio is ready to meet this demand. We need more energy now.”
The key federal policies that are needed include maintaining energy tax credits and strong funding levels for technology research, development, demonstration and deployment, Jacobson said. Congress and the Trump administration also should “enact federal permitting and siting reforms, and … work with states and localities to provide the resources that they need at the community level to expand and modernize energy infrastructure,” she said.
As federal energy policies and agencies remain in flux — with Trump even challenging the independence of FERC and similar regulatory commissions — RTO Insider dug into other major trends reflected in charts across the Factbook.
Electricity Generation Mix
The U.S. already appears to be enjoying some level of energy abundance, generating a record amount of electricity in 2024 ― 4,393 TWh — a 3.3% jump over 2023. At first glance, it looks like natural gas is the dominant source of power, accounting for 43% of generation. But with renewables growing to 24% and nuclear holding steady at 18%, carbon-free power is neck-and-neck at 42%.
BNEF also notes that as coal plants have closed, natural gas and renewables together are filling the gaps, generating “67.1% of the generation mix by the end of 2024, compared with 41.1% just a decade ago.”
Even the American Gas Association is calling for all-of-the-above energy policies.
“We need a robust energy portfolio, inclusive of not just natural gas, but of all the different technologies and supply sources and demand-side management approaches,” said Richard Meyer, AGA vice president for energy markets, analysis and standards. “We’re going to need that to ensure affordable and reliable energy for Americans.”
US Progress Toward Emissions Goals
However, the growth in carbon-free power has not translated into major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Even before Trump ordered the U.S. withdrawal from the United Nations Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. had veered off course in its efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, a goal set by former President Joe Biden.
The country’s modest drop in emissions overall has been driven primarily by the power industry’s switch from coal to natural gas, BNEF said. Emissions from all other sectors in the economy have fallen only 4% since 2007, and non-power emissions grew 0.24% in the past decade.
As Energy Secretary Chris Wright bluntly discounts Biden’s target for emissions cuts, it is unlikely the U.S. could meet the 2030 goals. According to BNEF, power sector emissions would have to fall 11% per year and economy-wide emissions would have to drop 6% per year.
Wholesale and Retail Power Prices
Power prices have been another component in Trump’s plans for U.S. energy dominance and abundance, with campaign promises to cut electricity bills in half.
The challenge here is that a sharp divide has opened between wholesale and retail electricity prices, according to BNEF. Spiking capacity auction prices in PJM notwithstanding, wholesale power prices rose only 0.1% in 2024. But “beneath this calm, regional shifts tell a more complex story,” the Factbook says. “California and Texas saw wholesale prices plummet by 45.9% and 51.4%, thanks to high renewable output, while New York and New England experienced increases of 11.1% and 6.1%, driven by reliance on natural gas and constrained supply.”
Similar regional differences were seen in retail electricity prices, which fell modestly by 0.68% on average in 2024. Retail prices dropped 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, in Texas and New England, while California and New York saw increases of 7.6% and 4.8%, reflecting higher transmission and distribution costs.
Such regional variations could, at least in part, account for the difference between BNEF’s figures showing modest overall decreases in electricity prices and consumer perceptions of higher electricity bills. But BNEF found that energy accounted for only 3.82% of consumer spending in 2024, a 0.3% drop from 2023, and electricity accounted for only about a third of that total, while motor fuel made up 2%.
Jobs in the Energy Sector
One of the strongest arguments for continued federal support for the energy industry has been its recent record of job growth, with the auto industry remaining the top job generator and energy efficiency a surprising second. But the growth in jobs for transmission, distribution and storage also has been significant, rising from 1.3 million in 2020 to 1.43 million in 2023.
When it comes to the jobs breakdown by fuel type, solar remains far ahead of the pack, with 364,544 jobs.
Energy Transition Investments
While Wright may not believe there is an energy transition, China committed $818 billion to its transition in 2024, a significant jump from the $684 billion it invested in 2023. By comparison, U.S. transition investments have stagnated, barely rising from $336 billion in 2023 to $338 billion in 2024.
Whether slapping tariffs on Chinese imports will improve U.S. competitiveness in global clean energy markets remains an open question.
Certainly, BNEF says the election and policy uncertainty put a dent in U.S. investments in certain sectors last year, with clean energy falling from $110 billion in 2023 to $97 billion in 2024.
But other investments signaled growth in key sectors like building electrification and grid expansion — both of which could cut consumer electric bills. Private dollars for electrified heat rose from $27 billion in 2023 to $32 billion in 2024 and investments in the power grid jumped from $85 billion in 2023 to $95 billion in 2024.
However, beyond investment, China also leads the world in installations of long-duration energy storage, a key technology for grid flexibility, with 2.5 GW in 2024 versus 625 MW in the U.S.
US LCOE for Unsubsidized New Energy Projects
In 2024, the levelized cost of electricity for natural gas edged below solar and wind, due largely to falling prices for natural gas. But the LCOE for new, unsubsidized generation and flexibility — what could be built to meet demand growth — presents a different picture, underlining the potential costs and benefits of a broad, diversified portfolio.
Unsubsidized solar is competitive with natural gas but will be cheaper if tax credits are maintained. Looking to new nuclear for clean, dispatchable power is going to be expensive, with a top LCOE of $523/MWh, and demand flexibility, storage and carbon capture will all come with higher costs.