California’s electricity consumption is projected to increase dramatically over the coming decades due in large part to planned artificial intelligence data centers, although questions remain about how many of those data centers actually will be built.
The Golden State’s consumption could increase from about 280 TWh in 2025 to more than 450 TWh in 2045, California Energy Commission staff said in a presentation during a Jan. 5 online workshop.
This steep increase would be unprecedented: In 2005, electricity consumption in California was about 270 TWh — almost the same as in 2025.
The consumption forecast is part of the CEC’s demand forecast for the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). The CEC revised the demand forecast last month because it received new information about data centers and known loads.
The initial 2025 IEPR forecast results used data from September 2025 that had been provided by some of the state’s utilities. The revised results included December data from these utilities.
For data centers, the state’s projected capacity in 2039 increased from about 3,993 MW using the September data to about 4,280 MW based on the December data in a “mid-case” scenario. The “high-case” scenario showed an increase from about 5,944 MW to about 6,510 MW.
CEC staff would like to perform a more detailed analysis of data centers in the future, CEC Energy System Planning Coordinator Mathew Cooper said during the workshop. For example, staff want to look at “different sizes of data centers” and how those variations affect forecast results, Cooper said.
In a Dec. 31 letter to the CEC, Sanya Kwatra, an engineer with the California Public Utilities Commission’s Public Advocates Office (Cal Advocates), requested the CEC verify the data center applications that have been categorized as having signed agreements. Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) showed about 2,000 MW of data center applications with signed agreements as of September 2025, but 4,000 MW as of December 2025, Kwatra said.
The CEC decided not to make any changes to the data center forecast based on the comments submitted by Cal Advocates, CEC Information Officer Gilbert Magallon told RTO Insider in an email. It is “very rare for a project to withdraw its application in between signing the engineering study and signing the interconnection agreement,” Magallon said.
At the CEC’s Dec. 17 IEPR commissioner workshop on energy demand forecast results, agency Vice Chair Siva Gunda said it is important to think about “the balancing act of affordability and reliability.”
“If we are in an untenable situation this year, we recognize that there’s these large known loads that most likely are going to come in 2025, but maybe not,” Gunda said. “I want to be super conscious about the liquidity in the market in terms of the total energy supply in California and the West and how that impacts the resource adequacy prices. That’s a very important thing to think about.”
In the updated data, PG&E’s capacity request increased from about 12,000 MW to about 14,300 MW, while Southern California Edison’s decreased from about 6,000 MW to about 4,800 MW. CAISO’s annual coincident peak load increased from about 48,000 MW in 2025 to more than 70,000 MW in 2045.
Data Center Costs
In the Cal Advocates letter, Kwatra said also that the CEC should provide a more detailed explanation for how it incorporated data center costs in its comparison of statewide average electricity rates.
In the letter, Kwatra noted the CEC said it incorporated the preliminary estimates of the costs of data centers into the statewide average electricity rates, with the estimates based in part on data from a PG&E application, which is being used to build out the utility’s transmission revenue requirement (TRR).
Certain entities disputed PG&E’s data, specifically how it might be underestimating the cost of data center interconnections, she said.
The CPUC has not yet ruled on a proceeding involving PG&E’s data, so “the CEC should avoid relying on PG&E’s workpapers as factual data,” Kwatra said.
Instead, the CEC should provide more information about what data it is using and how it is using this data to build out the TRR, Kwatra added. Doing so will “help enhance transparency related to the cost impact of data centers on the transmission grid,” she added.
In the 2026 IEPR forecast update, the CEC will continue to monitor energization dates of uncompleted projects and will continue to analyze meter data, among other tasks, staff said at the Jan. 5 workshop.