MISO to Make Transmission Re-evaluation Process More Public

MISO said it will create more public notices throughout its variance analysis, the process it uses to reassess transmission projects that experience cost increases or other obstacles to construction.

However, industrial customers stillare asking the RTO to enact stronger cost-containment boundaries on transmission projects. (See End Users Push MISO for More Intensive Cost Overrun Evals on Tx Projects.)

Jeremiah Doner, MISO director of cost allocation and competitive transmission, said the variance analysis remains an efficient avenue for the RTO to track spending, permitting and progress on pricier or stalled projects.

“We haven’t identified an issue that we think needs to materially change the process today,” Doner said during a May 27 meeting of the Regional Expansion Criteria and Benefits Working Group. He added that he understands why stakeholders would call for added cost controls given the “significant investment” members have made in transmission in recent years.

However, Doner said MISO could alert stakeholders more clearly when it has found grounds for a variance analysis, update them as it studies projects and better communicate resolutions.

The RTO has not “sent out a widespread communication” when a project enters a variance analysis, Doner said, but moving forward, it will send mass emails to stakeholders and dispatch a representative to make announcements before the Planning Advisory Committee. When the study concludes, MISO will explain the outcomes to the committee.

MISO previously made postings on its website only to publicize variance analysis steps.

The new process will be reflected in MISO’s Business Practices Manuals, Doner said. While MISO wants to report as much as possible on its variance analyses, the RTO is limited by confidentiality provisions between it and transmission developers. Doner called variance analyses “very situation-specific.”

The Union of Concerned Scientists’ Sam Gomberg asked if MISO had ever deemed a transmission project’s cost increases unreasonable.

“Thankfully, our sample size for that question is extremely small,” Doner said. MISO has encountered only three instances of a 25% or more cost increase on transmission projects, he said. The RTO found the cost increase was prudent on one, worked on a mitigation plan for another to ensure costs did not further increase, and has yet to make a determination on the last project.

MISO is conducting one variance analysis at the moment, investigating a 2.5-times increase in costs on one of its long-range transmission projects from its first portfolio. Incumbent developer Northern Indiana Public Service Co.’s 345-kV Morrison Ditch-Reynolds-Burr Oak-Leesburg-Hiple line, in Illinois and Indiana, now is expected to cost $675 million, up from MISO’s estimated $261 million. (See Cost Overruns on Project in 1st LRTP Prompt MISO Analysis.)

RTO staff perform variance analyses on regionally cost-shared transmission projects when they encounter schedule delays, permitting challenges, significant design changes or experience at least a 25% cost increase from original estimates. The studies also are triggered when developers find themselves unable to complete the project or if they default on the terms of their selected developer agreement.

After completing the analysis, the RTO either can let projects stand, develop a mitigation plan for them, cancel them or assign them to different developers if possible. A committee of MISO employees selected by MISO executives makes calls on how to deal with projects.

MISO has completed nine variance analyses to date. For most studied projects, the RTO either has drawn up mitigation plans or let projects stand. While the grid operator never has reassigned a project developer through the analysis, it has canceled one 500-kV project in MISO South because of a right-of-first-refusal law in Texas. (See FERC Rejects Last-ditch Effort to Save Tx Project.)

McNees Wallace & Nurick attorney Ken Stark, representing MISO’s End-Use Customer sector, said he still is looking for a more restrictive cost increase threshold than 25%. Stark said MISO could consider a 15 or 20% threshold on cost overruns to trigger the analysis, instead of his originally suggested 10%.

Stark also continued to advocate for an independent third party to evaluate cost overruns or annual informational reporting to FERC on transmission projects that go over budget. Stark dropped a previous recommendation that the Organization of MISO States or the Independent Market Monitor take an active role in evaluating project costs. Multiple stakeholders said those two entities are ill-suited for reviewing transmission: OMS because it represents state regulators that ultimately approve routes and certifications of public convenience and necessity; and the IMM because its purview is markets, not transmission.

MISO transmission owners at the meeting said there did not appear to be a need to install more restrictive thresholds or further checks and balances. They maintained the status quo variance analysis properly evaluates changes in projects.

Duke Energy’s Jay Rasmussen said the variance analysis remains appropriate and that MISO, as an independent entity, is up to the task of reviewing projects. He said more frequent updates from the RTO on the analyses should put more stakeholder attention on transmission costs.

“We think MISO’s approach is a good one at this point and see no need to tinker with it,” Ameren’s Justin Stewart agreed.

FERC Clarifies Rules for Markets+ ‘Transmission Contributors’ Option

FERC on May 30 rejected a request by four Western utilities to rehear its approval of the “transmission contributors” option in the SPP Markets+ tariff but provided the utilities clarification on the boundaries of that provision. 

The Markets+ tariff, which the commission approved in January, identifies two sources of transmission to be used by the market.     

The first source is from transmission service providers (TSPs) who have committed assets to the market by signing a Markets+ transmission service provider agreement.  

The second is transmission capacity offered by “transmission contributors” — market participants who contribute their transmission rights on the system of a TSP that is not participating in Markets+. 

In its Jan. 16 order approving the tariff, FERC found the transmission contributors option to be just and reasonable. It also directed SPP to adopt language the RTO used in a previous deficiency response noting that Markets+ transmission contributors would be responsible for “coordinating transmission schedule changes, curtailments and other operational concerns with the non-participating [transmission service provider] and non-participating [balancing authority], in accordance with the applicable governing documents and agreements, including applicable” Open Access Transmission Tariffs (OATTs).  

SPP included the change in a compliance filing the commission approved April 17.  

‘Ownership-like’ Concerns

At issue in the May 30 order (ER24-1658) was a Feb. 17 complaint filed by PacifiCorp, Portland General, Nevada Power and Sierra Pacific Power. The first two of those utilities have committed to joining CAISO’s Extended Day-Ahead Market (EDAM), while the last two are subsidiaries of NV Energy, which is leaning heavily in favor of EDAM.  

In their filing, the utilities asked FERC to clarify that no provisions in the Markets+ tariff — or any related proceedings — grants transmission customers “ownership-like” rights on the systems of non-participating TSPs or “grants, waives, modifies or otherwise interprets any rights or obligations under the OATT of a non-SPP participant not before the commission” in the proceeding. 

PacifiCorp and NV Energy first raised the issue last year soon after SPP filed the Markets+ tariff with FERC. (See SPP Markets+ Tariff Sparks Concerns for PacifiCorp, NV Energy.) 

As stated in the order, the utilities argued that, “without this requested clarification, the January 16 order would be unlawful to the extent that it could be read to grant a class of transmission customers — in particular, firm point-to-point transmission customers wheeling to another balancing authority area’s interface — the unilateral right to exempt themselves from generally applicable OATT requirements, such as the transmission provider’s scheduling requirements and redispatch protocols.”   

The utilities alternatively asked the commission to rehear the matter if it declined to issue such a clarification or if Paragraph 155 of the Jan. 16 order “explicitly or implicitly grants ownership rights to transmission customers taking service on non-participating transmission service providers’ systems,” FERC noted. 

In granting the utilities’ request for clarification, the commission wrote that “under the Markets+ tariff, Markets+ transmission contributors may contribute only their transmission service rights [emphasis theirs] on non-participating transmission systems, in accordance with the non-participating transmission service providers’ OATTs or other governing documents.” 

The commission went on to clarify that it “agrees with SPP’s explanation that the transmission capability of non-participating transmission service providers is not available to Markets+ unless an entity that has transmission service rights on a non-participating transmission service provider’s system makes them available to Markets+, regardless of whether the entity is in a participating balancing authority or not.” 

The commission added that, because it had granted the utilities’ request for clarification, it had dismissed their request for rehearing as moot. 

‘Too Narrowly’

FERC dismissed a separate rehearing request by the four utilities, which had argued the compliance directives in Paragraph 154 of the Jan. 16 order could imply that SPP would be able to dictate the terms and conditions of service to transmission customers taking service under the OATTs of non-participating TSPs. 

“We are not persuaded by rehearing parties’ assertions that the January 16 order purports to control transmission service obligations on non-participating transmission service providers’ systems, and we thus sustain the compliance directives in Paragraph 154 of the January 16 order,” the commission wrote.  

The commissioners said the utilities were reading “the directives in Paragraph 154 too narrowly, ignoring the broader context of the commission’s findings on SPP’s Markets+ transmission contributor option in the surrounding paragraphs.” 

Applications Open for TEF’s Non-ERCOT Grant Program

The Texas Public Utility Commission has begun accepting applications for up to $1 billion in grants under one of the four Texas Energy Fund programs it administers. 

The PUC said May 28 that companies with facilities outside the ERCOT region can apply for funding for transmission and distribution infrastructure or generating facilities in the MISO, SPP and WECC portions of Texas. Qualifying projects must address the modernization of infrastructure, weatherization, reliability and resiliency improvements, or vegetation management, the commission said. 

Applicants must be an existing electric utility, cooperative, municipality or river authority that owns or manages transmission or distribution infrastructure, one or more generators, or a qualifying facility within Texas outside ERCOT. Applicants have to complete and submit an application on the TEF website and file a separate submission statement with the PUC (57830). 

The Outside ERCOT Grant Program is one of four TEF offerings, along with the In-ERCOT Generation Loan Program, the Completion Bonus Grant Program and the Texas Backup Power Package Program. 

The Texas Legislature initially allocated $5 billion to the fund, all of which went to the in-ERCOT program. The low-interest loan program, designed to add 10 GW in gas generation, has seen eight projects drop out or be removed in recent months. (See 2 More Projects Fall out of TEF Loan Program.) 

Lawmakers allocated an additional $5 billion to the fund in its 2025 biennial budget. An additional $2.2 billion will go to loans and grants for ERCOT gas plants, and $1.8 billion has been dedicated to the backup power package. 

The TEF was created by legislation in 2023 and approved by voters later that year in a constitutional election. 

ACP Tallies 7.4 GW of New Solar, Storage, Wind

Installed utility-scale solar, wind and storage capacity grew by 7.4 GW in the first quarter of 2025, the American Clean Power Association said. 

ACP said in a report released May 29 that this was the second-strongest start to a year ever recorded in the United States and brought the total to 320.86 GW installed nationwide. 

The pipeline of announced plans also showed strong growth, despite the threat of federal policy changes that would make renewable energy development more costly and risky than it was during the Biden administration. The pipeline reached 184.4 GW in March, up 12% over the same period in 2024. It represents a potential investment of $328 billion if everything were built as planned. 

But the projects completed in the first quarter had the benefit of policy and financial support under President Biden. Projects that are still on the drawing board have a tougher path ahead. 

ACP President Jason Grumet used the numbers as a springboard to reinforce the message he and countless others in the renewables sector have been offering since Donald Trump won election on a pro-fossil, anti-renewable platform: The clean energy sector is an important part of the nation’s economy and its energy needs. 

“We have the technology, investment capital and workforce required to build the $300+ billion of clean energy projects in our development pipeline,” he said in a news release. “With unprecedented demand growth for electricity, we must send consistent investment signals across the energy sector. … The greatest threat to a reliable energy system is an unreliable political system.” 

Already there are signs of pullback. Also on May 29, E2 released a report showing the cancellation of $14.5 billion in clean energy, transportation and manufacturing investment plans in the first four months of 2025. (See related story, More Green Projects Halted amid Policy Changes.) 

ACP’s report offers broad details of the first quarter of 2025: 

    • The 7.39 GW of newly commissioned clean energy broke down to 4.46 GW of utility-scale solar, 1.6 GW of storage and 1.33 GW of wind. 
    • Battery energy storage systems totaling 1.6 GW were added, pushing total installed storage capacity above 30 GW. 
    • Texas led the nation in clean power installations by a wide margin; this brought it to 80.66 GW — an increase of more than 20% in a single year’s time. 
    • Storage and wind accounted for all of the increase in projects in the advanced development or construction phases — the utility-scale solar pipeline shrank 3% year over year. 
    • Onshore wind has the largest total installed capacity (155.56 GW), but utility-scale solar reached 134.44 GW and could surpass wind by the end of 2025. The pipeline of wind projects is larger than it was a year ago but still much smaller than the solar pipeline. 
    • Offshore wind continues to plod along — five projects from Virginia to Massachusetts are in some stage of construction, but the prospects for those and many others in development are unclear under the Trump administration. 

NERC Replies to UCS’ Cold Weather Standard Criticism

In a recent filing, NERC urged FERC to approve its latest proposed cold weather standard without the changes called for by the Union of Concerned Scientists, which claimed that some of the standard’s provisions created loopholes against the commission’s intentions.

NERC filed EOP-012-3 (Extreme cold weather preparedness and operations) on April 10, following the approval of the ERO’s Board of Trustees the week before (RD25-7). (See NERC Board Approves Cold Weather Standard.) FERC had ordered the organization to undertake a set of “targeted modifications” to its predecessor EOP-012-2, which finally were completed after the board authorized bypassing NERC’s normal ballot and comment practice to meet the commission’s deadline. (See NERC Board Invokes Section 321 Authority for Cold Weather Standard.)

UCS, a nonprofit science advocacy group based in Massachusetts, filed its comments on April 10, raising issue with several aspects of the standard that it said did not address FERC’s concerns. The group urged the commission to “maintain pressure on the industry to adopt strong requirements without vague language enabling exemptions” that it claimed to find in NERC’s proposed standard.

NERC’s response, filed on May 28, said the ERO “appreciates the opportunity to clarify” the issues raised by UCS but maintained that EOP-012-3 “would meet [NERC’s] reliability goal of advancing generator cold weather preparedness effectively and efficiently” while satisfying FERC’s order directing the ERO to develop the standard.

Worries over Subjectivity of Standard

UCS’ first concern involved part of the standard dealing with cold weather constraints, situations in which a generator owner may declare that implementing a specific freeze protection measure would result in a net loss of reliability on the grid.

In its petition for approval, NERC gave the example of a measure that would result in the premature retirement of an existing generating unit with no acceptable replacement available. Such a declaration could result in an exemption from the requirement for that GO.

UCS argued that this measure is too subjective. It said the example would require compliance authorities to “establish that the GO was not planning to retire a given generator before the standard was in place,” and even after this difficult step, the authority would have to confirm that the freeze protection measures would cause the generator to become uneconomic to the point of requiring it to retire.

In response, NERC pointed out that the commission’s order recognized the risk of “unnecessarily burdensome” requirements that could lead to premature generator retirements, and said the standard was intended to address this concern. The ERO also pushed back against UCS’ suggestion that a market mechanism may render this item redundant, observing that its standards must apply across North America in a variety of market designs and ownership structures.

UCS raised similar objections to a provision allowing exceptions when freeze protection measures would lead a GO to cancel plans to finish developing a new unit; the group called this item subjective and said GOs should be aware of the need for such provisions “after repeated, serious threats to [grid] reliability.”

NERC agreed that GOs “have been aware of the need to take prompt action to address cold weather reliability risks” and said that it has shortened the timeline for implementing freeze protection measures since the first version of EOP-012. But it also reminded the commission that its order recognized that such situations could arise and directed the ERO to provide it a “limited set of clearly defined circumstances” under which exceptions could be granted; the item in question is “consistent with this guidance,” NERC said.

NERC Dismisses Loophole Claims

Next, UCS took issue with two items concerning retrofitting cold weather constraints to existing generation units: one in which freeze protection measures would void the warranty of a component, and one in which implementation of the measure would exceed a design limitation and impair or degrade the component or the system’s operation.

While UCS said these provisions could create “loopholes … to forgo freeze protections even when they are technically feasible” and called for them to be limited to new generation, NERC said they constitute “a reasonable and objective approach” to find constraints for existing or planned generation. The ERO also pointed out the standard “contains a built-in mechanism for ensuring constraint declarations remain up to date” in the form of a measure requiring all GOs to review their cold weather constraints every three years to verify their validity.

Finally, UCS claimed that EOP-012-3 could allow conflicts of interest by permitting a GO to declare constraints on the basis of testimony from “the appropriate functional entity,” which might be affiliated with the GO and therefore biased to support its constraint declaration.

NERC replied that the standard requires GOs to demonstrate the constraint’s applicability to their particular circumstances, and that constraints “must be approved by the compliance enforcement authority before the implementation of any otherwise-required freeze protection measures would be excused.” However, the ERO indicated it would restart the standard development process as needed should any conflict of interest be indicated in the implementation data.

Study Finds PSCo Would Gain More in EDAM than Markets+

A new study commissioned by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) finds Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) would earn millions of dollars more in annual benefits from participating in CAISO’s Extended Day-Ahead Market (EDAM) than SPP’s Markets+. 

The study, conducted by Aurora Energy Research, found EDAM could provide the Denver-based utility $11.2 million more in average annual savings from 2028 to 2040 compared with Markets+, rising to $13.2 million through 2060.  

The analysis comes three months after PSCo, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, asked the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) for permission to join Markets+ and fund its share of the Phase 2 implementation stage of the market. (See PSCo Seeks to Join SPP’s Markets+.)  

“It’s important to recognize that not all markets are created equal,” Alex DeGolia, director of state legislative and regulatory affairs at EDF, said in a May 27 statement accompanying the release of the study.   

Like other prominent environmental organizations, EDF has advocated strongly for a single Western electricity market that pointedly includes California and rests on the existing framework of CAISO’s Western Energy Imbalance Market. 

“Coloradans deserve for this decision — which could have decadeslong implications for their utility bills, as well as the state’s ability to meet its climate targets — to be informed by thorough, robust analysis. Recent analysis suggests that the Extended Day-Ahead Market is a clear winner among currently available options in terms of delivering both lower costs and more reliability to our state,” DeGolia said.  

In an email to RTO Insider, Joe Taylor, senior director of Western markets for Xcel Energy-Colorado, said the Aurora study “was very recently submitted in public comments in our application to join the Markets+ market.” 

“We are taking part in that proceeding at the Public Utilities Commission and have not had the opportunity yet to review this document,” Taylor wrote. 

Breakdown of Benefits

In its February filing with the CPUC seeking to join Markets+, PSCo said it was swayed by the SPP market’s independent governance, greenhouse gas emissions tracking and accounting system, and benefits “overall and in relation to costs relative to the other markets studied, including EDAM.”  

It’s unclear what impact the Aurora study might have on the PUC’s response, but it could raise questions about PSCo’s cost-benefit claim based on its examination of four metrics, including estimated production costs, bilateral trading costs, congestion revenues and wheeling revenues under both markets.  

The study found that under EDAM, PSCo’s average annual productions costs would be $4.9 million lower than in Markets+, in large part because the CAISO market would allow the utility to more significantly increase its use of wind generation and reduce its reliance on gas-fired generation. 

Aurora also found that PSCo’s participation in EDAM would bring increased use of its transmission system to facilitate energy transfers between EDAM members PacifiCorp and PNM, whose balancing areas border PSCo. Those transfers would translate into $12.8 million more in congestion revenues compared with Markets+, along with $0.4 million more in wheeling revenues. 

The study does show Markets+ outperforming in one area: PSCo’s bilateral trading costs in EDAM are expected to exceed those in the SPP market by $4.9 million, something largely attributed to “friction charges” for imports from the Western Area Power Administration’s neighboring Rocky Mountain Region balancing area, which plans to join SPP’s full RTO. 

Aurora noted that, in modeling the Western Interconnection, the study considered transfer limits between BAs, basing its transfer capacity assumptions on both the historical record and assumptions about planned upgrades to interstate transmission capacity affecting Colorado, including three lines expected to begin service in 2032.  

But even in excluding those planned interstate projects in the modeling, EDAM’s benefits would exceed those of Markets+ by $4.2 million a year, the study found, while the EDAM benefits advantage would continue to increase with the additional inclusion of each project. 

The study also found PSCo would be able to comply with Colorado’s ambitious emissions targets under either market. State law requires utilities to reduce their emissions from retail sales by 80% by 2030 compared with a 2005 baseline and move to 100% clean energy by 2050.  

“Emissions are similar between the two modeled scenarios for PSCo participation in EDAM and Markets+, given the capacity mix was held constant. Marginal differences in emissions are driven by variation in carbon intensity of imports and exports,” the study says. 

Aurora’s study modeled the makeup of each market based on confirmed and likely commitments by participants. 

BLM Proposes Accommodations for Greenlink North Line

The Bureau of Land Management has proposed changes to three of its Northern Nevada resource management plans to accommodate NV Energy’s 235-mile Greenlink North transmission project.

The proposed amendments would loosen restrictions for building near greater sage-grouse habitat and courtship areas known as leks.

The amendments were released along with BLM’s final environmental impact statement for Greenlink North on May 27, opening a 45-day objection period. BLM expects to issue a record of decision for the project this year.

Greenlink North would be a 525-kV line connecting the Robinson Summit substation in northeastern Nevada to the Fort Churchill substation in the northwestern part of the state. The line would run parallel to U.S. Highway 50 and an existing 230-kV transmission line for most of its length.

Greenlink North will connect with NV Energy’s existing One Nevada Line, a north-south line along the eastern side of the state, and Greenlink West, a 525-kV, 350-mile line under construction on the west side of the state, to form a transmission triangle around Nevada.

The project is aimed at increasing transmission redundancy, reliability and resiliency. It will facilitate access to state-designated renewable energy zones to help meet greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The project also will “increase northern Nevada’s transmission import capacity required to meet the region’s electric demand, grid reliability and [FERC] requests for service,” according to the BLM document.

Greenlink West is expected to be in service by May 2027, and Greenlink North’s expected in-service date is December 2028.

Plan Amendments

BLM’s proposed resource management plan (RMP) amendments would designate a new utility corridor up to 3,500 feet wide on land where the Greenlink North project would be built. That would provide enough space to avoid electrical interference with the existing 230-kV line, the bureau said.

Under the amendment, the utility corridor would be exempt from requirements to stay a certain distance from sage-grouse leks. Roughly 100 miles of Greenlink North would be within a 3.1-mile buffer zone for ground disturbances around leks. The buffer requirement would impact geotechnical investigations, construction work, and operation and maintenance activities, BLM said.

“The transmission line’s proximity to leks would be unavoidable,” the BLM document said. “Exempting the BLM utility corridor from the lek avoidance buffers would ensure the viability of the utility corridor if future applications for energy transmission projects were submitted to the BLM.”

The utility corridor also would be exempt from a seasonal restriction for activities in greater sage-grouse winter range, under the proposed amendment.

With seasonal restrictions in place for breeding, brood-rearing and winter habitats, 190 miles of the Greenlink North project would have only 45 days a year remaining for construction, from Sept. 16 to Oct. 31.

With the winter-range seasonal restriction removed, the construction season would run from Sept. 16 to Feb. 28.

Making Progress

The release of the BLM documents is the latest piece to fall into place for the Greenlink projects. (See NV Energy’s Greenlink West Poised for Progress in 2025.)

Work has started at both ends of Greenlink West, NV Energy said in a March project update. In April, construction crews drilled the first holes for the project’s transmission poles. Material yards have been established in strategic locations to reduce distance to construction sites.

NV Energy said it’s been taking delivery of lattice and tubular transmission structures, conductor and shield wire for the transmission line, high-voltage circuit breakers and steel support structures for the substation equipment.

Growing Clean Energy Sector in Texas May Avoid Damaging Legislation

ERCOT breezed through its first heat wave of the season recently using the same valuable resources that helped it survive last year’s record-breaking summer in Texas: wind, solar and batteries.

The most extreme bills targeting those same renewables appear to have died in the Texas State Legislature.

Thanks to a heat dome settling into position and sending temperatures into triple digits from Dallas to Austin, ERCOT projected demand to threaten its all-time peak of 85.5 GW on May 14. The forecast was off. Demand averaged 77.8 GW during the hour ending at 5 p.m., still a record — for the fourth straight month — for May.

Wind and solar accounted for 47% of the demand during that time, when total available capacity was nearly 108 GW. As was the case last summer, batteries began discharging as the sun set on solar resources. Storage provided less than 1 GW in May 2024. A year later, storage can provide nearly 6 GW of energy.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar output averaged nearly 17 GW between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. during the summer of 2024, compared to 12 GW during the same hours in 2023. Between 6 and 9 p.m., storage facilities’ discharge averaged 714 MW in 2024 after averaging 238 MW for those hours in 2023.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas has not been shy about praising renewables’ contribution to the Texas grid, especially that of solar and batteries.

“We’re really continuing to see the benefit of increased resources from the solar and battery perspective,” he told reporters during ERCOT’s Innovation Summit in early May. “That made a very significant difference last summer. I think that we’ll see the benefit of that this summer.”

Thomas Gleeson, chair of the Texas Public Utility Commission, agrees. He said in November 2024 that solar and storage “saved” ERCOT during the summer and prevented emergency conditions like those in 2022. (See ERCOT Continues to Feel the Heat.)

“Solar and storage are key for reliability in this state. … We need them to be successful,” he said during an industry conference.

Texas leads the 49 other states in wind energy and trails only California in solar and batteries. The latter two resources dominate ERCOT’s interconnection queue.

How battery resources began discharging as solar energy dropped off the grid | Grid Status

Yet, lawmakers have stuffed the state legislature’s 89th session with bills that would place firming obligations and new interconnection requirements on renewable resources. Other legislation excludes batteries as a dispatchable energy source, contrary to ERCOT’s own contention that storage is dispatchable and is valuable in providing ancillary services and energy arbitrage. Still another law would prevent offshore wind power from gaining a foothold in the Gulf of Mexico.

If cheap renewable energy is so important in helping ERCOT meet ever-increasing demand, why are state lawmakers — framed by The Hill as a “red-on-red” civil war — doing all they can to essentially stifle an industry that helps keep prices around the national median?

“It’s often said, ‘No one’s life, liberty or property are safe when the legislature is in session.’ And this time around, it’s no different with energy,” said Chris Reeder, a partner with Husch Blackwell leading its Texas energy regulatory practice.

“There used to be a time when they just didn’t do much on energy,” he added during an April webinar. “Those days are past us.”

texas

Judd Messer, APA | © RTO Insider 

Judd Messer, Texas vice president of the Advanced Power Alliance, told RTO Insider that some lawmakers’ opposition to renewables stems from a “fear of competition and allegiance to a narrow set” of political allies that benefit from limiting clean energy’s growth.

“As technology advances and renewables continue to deliver when the grid is strained, their value becomes increasingly undeniable and opponents find it harder to justify their stances,” he said. “What’s more troubling is that many of their proposals this session directly contradicted long-held conservative values — private property rights, limited government and free markets — suggesting that clean energy has become such a political flashpoint that this small band of lawmakers are willing to abandon the very principles they typically champion.”

Stoic Energy principal Doug Lewin, who has kept close tabs on this year’s legislative session, allows that while politics may play a role with the idealogues capturing the headlines, many elected officials have embraced an “all-of-the-above” approach to Texas’ power needs.

“I think what we have really seen emerge this session is … kind of pragmatism over ideology, really led by the business community,” he said in an interview. “Sure, renewables have some challenges, but we’re going to work to integrate them and overcome those challenges. … Otherwise, all of our electric bills are going to go significantly higher without it.”

Case in point: Three Senate bills (SB715, SB388 and SB819) never made it to the House of Representatives’ calendar in time to get a vote before the session ends June 2, effectively killing them.

Texas

Doug Lewin, Stoic Energy | © RTO Insider 

SB715 would require existing wind and solar facilities in the ERCOT region to back up their energy production with gas generation or be subject to fines. SB388 would update the Texas Utilities Code to reflect the legislature’s intent that 50% of generating capacity installed in ERCOT after Jan. 1, 2026, “be sourced from dispatchable generation other than battery energy storage.”

Both bills would dampen further investment in clean energy — renewable companies have made plans for $64 billion in new projects in Texas since 2022, mostly for solar and battery storage — and cause existing sites to shut down, industry insiders said. Aurora Energy Research said in a May report that about 25 GW of capacity would require contracts for backup generation, leading to a 14% increase in wholesale prices over the next 10 years and cause capacity shortfalls that could result in more than 3 GW of load shed during an extreme weather event.

“If you rely on gas as your sole fuel, your sole source of power, it would be hard to overstate how incredibly stupid that would be,” Lewin said. “That just absolutely makes no sense. You absolutely need a diverse set of resources.”

As for SB819, it would have placed some of the most onerous permitting conditions for wind and solar resources. Clean energy advocates called the bill “an industry killer.”

“We need policies that support an all-of-the-above approach to meet the expected surge in power demand,” said Olivier Beaufils, Aurora’s head of USA Central. “Embracing renewables alongside flexible generation sources will help maintain grid stability, lower costs, and sustain Texas’ economic momentum.”

Mark Stover, executive director of the Texas Solar + Storage Association, memorably said earlier in the session that he couldn’t recall “legislation as damaging to our industry and to the energy market” as SB715 and its companion House bill (HB3356).

Stover declined comment about the clean energy sector possibly dodging a bullet, as it did during the 2023 session, until after June 2. (See Clean Energy Escapes Texas Legislature’s Wrath.)

Perhaps that’s because of the danger of “zombie bills” and “frankenbills.” Zombie bills refer to legislation that is reintroduced or revived in subsequent sessions after failing to pass in a previous session. Frankenbills are those measures attached to another living bill either through a committee substitute or a final-hour compromise in a conference committee where members meet to resolve their differences.

Lewin said the final days of the session can be an “eternity in legislative time.”

“Strange things happen,” he said. “There are still some pretty big bills in play … what we do know is that the worst of the anti-energy bills as standalone bills are dead.”

“For two consecutive sessions, cooler heads have prevailed in blocking some of the most extreme anti-energy proposals,” Messer said. “Without a competitive, diverse energy mix, Texas risks not only missing out on significant economic development but also struggling to keep the lights on. These legislators recognize renewables for what they are: a vital part of the Texas economy, particularly in rural communities.”

The attention now turns to SB6. Its low number denoting it as one of the Senate’s top priorities, the measure addresses the potential wave of large-load additions. ERCOT has more than 150 GW of new standalone and co-located projects in its large-load queue, adding nearly 20 GW in its most recent month alone.

SB6 requires developers to put down a $100,000 fee for a screening study and to notify ERCOT whether they’re considering multiple sites in Texas, giving the grid operator a more accurate read on load growth. It also gives ERCOT and utilities the ability to reject the co-location of data centers with existing generation and hands the grid operator a “kill switch” to shut off large loads if needed.

The measure was preliminarily approved by the House on May 26. It was returned to the Senate with an amendment that allows water utilities to use their rates to fund power infrastructure that can participate in the market and also stripping out HB3970, a load-flexibility bill. The two versions must be reconciled.

Several other power-related bills are still in various phases of the legislative process:

    • HB14 would use up to $2 billion in taxpayer money to help build advanced nuclear reactors, provide grants and fund development research. It also would create an office under the governor to “lead the transition to a balanced energy future by advancing innovative nuclear energy generation technologies.” The measure has cleared both houses, but the Senate has asked the House to return the bill.
    • HB3556 still is alive in the Senate. The bill was amended to give the Texas Parks & Wildlife Department the ability to review coastal wind projects and removed its ability to stop projects.
    • SB383 has been approved by the Senate and passed out of a House committee, but it did not get a vote by the full membership. It would prohibit offshore wind turbines in the Gulf of Mexico from interconnecting with ERCOT through state waters (extending 9 nautical miles from the coastline), effectively killing Texas offshore wind.
    • Two bills related to utility ratemaking have passed the House but have not advanced in the Senate. HB3157 would allow utilities to use interim rate hikes before a proposed increase is approved by the PUC. HB2868 would require the commission to assume a utility’s debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable if calculated using certain metrics as recorded in the books and records for the most recent available financial quarter before the applicable rate proceeding begins.

BPA Predicts Energy Deficits Over Next 10 Years

The Bonneville Power Administration predicts even steeper energy deficits among its network of dams under firm conditions compared to predictions last year, according to the agency’s annual “White Book” study. 

BPA’s Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, or the White Book, was issued May 29. It covers a 10-year period and provides predictions for the federal power marketer’s loads and resources, as well as the entire region’s retail loads, power supply obligations and resources. 

The 2025 White Book finds that under firm conditions, the federal system would have annual energy deficits between 2026 and 2035, ranging from deficits of 426 aMW to a high of 1,012 aMW.  

“Overall, these annual energy deficit projections are more than those projected in the 2024 White Book,” according to the study. In 2024, the White Book projected deficits ranging from 79 aMW to 303 aMW. 

The 2025 study also found that under median water conditions, the federal system could have a surplus ranging from 911 aMW and 364 aMW. The Northwest relies heavily on hydropower generation, which is notoriously difficult to predict and can fluctuate dramatically from year to year. 

“The federal system surplus/deficit forecasts generally have a positive relationship with water conditions,” the report stated. “Better water conditions generally yield more surplus overall. For example, the annual energy surplus can increase by over 4,000 aMW under better water conditions, while monthly surplus or deficit position can vary by over 5,500 aMW within the same year.” 

Meanwhile, the entire Pacific Northwest could have an energy surplus of 960 aMW in 2026 under firm water conditions, but this could drop rapidly to a deficit of 3,026 aMW by 2034. Under median water conditions, however, the region could have surpluses until 2032, according to the report. 

“This result was mainly driven by the increasing retail loads,” the report stated. “Overall, the annual energy surplus/deficit position projections are more surplus than forecasts from the 2024 White Book until the out years of the study period. Under median water conditions, the PNW region would begin to see energy deficits in the out years.” 

BPA’s White Book follows the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s (NWPCC) initial 20-year forecast released in April. (See NWPCC’s Initial Demand Forecast Sees Sharp Growth for NW.) 

Energy consumption in the region has hovered around 20,000 to 22,000 aMW since 2010, according to NWPCC. But energy demand could skyrocket and reach between 31,000 and 44,000 aMW by 2046, with the largest growth expected from electric vehicles and data centers, NWPCC found. 

BPA noted in the White Book that: “Many factors contribute to the uncertainty of the longer-term resources outlook for the region, such as resource retirements and development, resource adequacy and the efforts surrounding it, and other federal and state policy mandates. As with resources, there is also much uncertainty with loads including the potential for electrification and data centers coming online.” 

“While regional analysis shows surpluses in the first two years of the 10-year study period with rapidly rising deficits in certain parts of the years following that period, BPA analysis shows periodic deficits for the entire study period,” BPA spokesperson Doug Johnson told RTO Insider. “Rapidly growing load forecasts and subtle changes in water volume and runoff over the period account for the growing deficits.”

Johnson pointed out that forecast certainty declines “the deeper you get into the 10-year period.”

“However, it looks like at some point during the study period BPA will likely need to secure the output of additional resources to meet its firm power obligations,” he said.

N.J. BPU Backs New Grid Modernization Rules

Facing a dramatic electricity rate hike driven in part by a shortage of generation sources, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities has approved new grid modernization rules that the agency says will make the process of launching new distributed sources easier and faster.

The board voted 4-0 on May 21 for rule changes the agency said will streamline the process by which distribution grid interconnection applications are handled. Among the changes are the enactment of more frequent updates to hosting capacity maps and a revised dispute resolution process, according to a statement from the board.

The new rules also include a “pre-application and verification process to provide applicants with an early indication of project feasibility and costs, and a requirement for utilities to have a web portal for a more consistent interconnection application process regardless of service territory,” the board said.

The approval came as state ratepayers on June 1 will see a 20% increase in the average electricity bill, which has stoked anger among lawmakers, ratepayer advocates and BPU officials. The increase, based on the prices in the state Basic Generation Service auction held in February, was affected by the dramatic price rise in the PJM capacity auction held in July 2024.

PJM officials say the increase stems in part from old fossil fuel power sources shutting down at a faster pace than new generation sources, mainly clean energy, are coming online. Both New Jersey and PJM forecast a major increase in electricity demand due to the proliferation of data centers, greater electric vehicle use, building electrification and other factors.

Controlling Energy Costs

While the BPU has planned its grid modernization process for three years, the release comes as the agency looks for ways to get new sources online more quickly. (See NJ Regulators Seek ‘Proactive’ Grid Upgrade Plans from Utilities and New Jersey Opts to Explore Nuclear Options.)

BPU President Christine Guhl-Sadovy said the new rules mark a “pivotal step toward … making the interconnection process more efficient,”

“Increasing the number of distributed energy resources, including new solar projects, as quickly as possible is a key component of our comprehensive effort to drive down energy costs for ratepayers, and we are delivering on that effort,” she said in a statement.

The BPU says the rules will make it easier to get solar and storage facilities online, which the agency said in a statement are “some of the cheapest and fastest resources to come online” and will “reduce the peak energy forecasts for New Jersey.”

Doing so “decreases the amount of capacity New Jersey needs to buy, which in turn puts downward pressure on capacity prices for all ratepayers, helping save money via avoided costs,” the agency statement said. New Jersey is an importer of electricity because it does not generate enough in-state.

The BPU is working on finalizing a straw proposal for a program that would offer incentives to stimulate the development of storage projects. (See NJ BPU Updates Proposal for Storage Incentives.)