NERC Report Urges Preserving Coal, Nuke ‘Attributes’

By Rich Heidorn Jr.

NERC released its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment on Thursday, calling for more efforts to preserve “essential reliability services” provided by coal and nuclear plants but saying it is agnostic as to how FERC and regional grid operators do so.

“FERC should consider the reliability and resilience attributes provided by coal and nuclear generation to ensure that the generation resource mix continues evolving in a manner that maintains a reliable and resilient” bulk power system (BPS), the 2017 report said.

NERC’s concerns that the increase in natural gas and renewable generation could endanger grid resilience puts it squarely in the middle of the debates over state nuclear subsidies and Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s call for price supports for coal and nuclear plants in organized markets.

“The changing composition of the North American resource mix calls for more robust planning approaches to ensure adequate essential reliability services and fuel assurance,” the report said, calling for new metrics to supplement reserve margins and requirements that all new generation provide voltage support and frequency response.

But NERC said it would limit its advice on the contentious issue, which is now before FERC. (See McIntyre Takes FERC Chair; Wins Delay on NOPR.)

Long-Term Reliability Assessment NERC

Moura

“What would be a bad thing is if we bring on a lot more gas-fired generation but all that gas-fired generation … can be interrupted, especially during winter peak times,” John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and system analysis, said during a media briefing on the report. “We replaced coal and nuclear that has some resilience to extreme weather and they’re going to be there, with resources that don’t have that. That’s our responsibility to look at and call out but … we do not have the authority or really the view as to how the market should address that.”

Recommendations

The report said:

  • FERC should support new products and revised market rules to ensure “essential reliability services” including frequency response and ramping.
  • State, federal and provincial regulators must recognize the long lead times for generation, transmission and natural gas infrastructure and the difference between regulated areas with long-term integrated resource plans and organized markets that can lose a generator with as little as 60 days’ notice.
  • State and federal policymakers, including the Department of Energy and FERC, should consider the impact of natural gas disruptions on the BPS when evaluating infrastructure requirements. Transmission planners and operators should identify reliability concerns resulting when a large share of gas generators rely on interruptible fuel contracts.
  • System operators and planners should gather more data on the “aggregate technical specifications” of distributed energy resources on local distribution grids to ensure accurate planning models, coordination of system protection and real-time situational awareness. Moura said the aggregate amount of behind-the-meter resources “is generally well known,” but that bus locations and technical specifications such as protection settings and voltage operating ranges are not.

In addition, NERC said it would conduct a “comprehensive evaluation” of its reliability standards to ensure their compatibility with nonsynchronous and distributed resources. “A lot of our standards were written largely for conventional generation, and words like ‘tripping’ or ‘spinning’ that are … well known when we’re talking about conventional generation don’t completely translate when we’re talking about asynchronous machines and inverters,” Moura said. “And so, we really need to look at our standards to make sure we’re not missing anything when we have more nonsynchronous machines on the system.”

Long-Term Reliability Assessment NERC

| NERC

NERC also said it will monitor reserve margins, citing projected shortfalls in ERCOT and the SERC Reliability region. The reserve margin in SERC-E, which comprises utilities in the Carolinas that aren’t part of PJM, is expected to fall below the reference margin level beginning in 2020 because of the canceled expansion of the V.C. Summer nuclear power plant. The announcement of 4,600 MW of coal and gas retirements this fall means ERCOT reserve margins will fall below targets by summer 2018.

Higher Reserve Margins, Additional Metrics Needed

“As we see the resource mix change, we’re really making a call to action to industry and regulators to increase the robustness of the planning approaches,” Moura said.

In the past, he said, planners assumed fuel would be available and that there would be generators with sufficient inertia to control frequency response. Neither is a given, he said, as the mix changes to more gas and renewable generation.

The report said increasing variable generation may require more planning reserves to maintain the one-day-in-10-years loss-of-load-expectation, boosting target reference margin levels to 17% from 15%.

Since 2008, all but one of nine regions increased their reserve margins by about 2 percentage points. The exception was SPP, which has seen its reserve margin drop from 13% to about 12% over 10 years. ERCOT and Quebec are currently below 15%, although they have increased over the last decade.

Essential Reliability Services

Moura acknowledged that NERC has made the recommendation for preserving reliability services before. “But we wanted to reiterate it here: that all new resources, no matter the fuel, need to have the capability to support voltage and frequency response.”

He said FERC’s November 2016 rulemaking proposing changes to its pro forma generator interconnection agreements seeks to address the frequency response issue but said it’s up to states to implement the interconnection requirements. And even that, he said, is not sufficient. (See FERC Has More Questions on Frequency Response NOPR.)

Interconnection requirements don’t “guarantee any performance,” he said. “It requires them to have the capability and the [ability] to provide it, but in market areas, if they’re not bidding in and being incentivized to provide that frequency response, they don’t.

“We’re not in trouble right yet with frequency response,” he added. “But we see it on the horizon.”

Similarly, he said ERCOT’s establishment of a “critical inertia” level of 100 GW/s is “a really good approach to manage this. But a long-term mechanism will be needed as even more … wind will be coming on to their system.”

Gas Supply

The report notes that on-peak natural gas capacity has increased from 280 GW in 2009 to 442 GW today, with another 32 GW of gas capacity planned for the next 10 years. It projects the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council assessment area will rely on gas for 78% of its power by 2022.

“Areas can have and can rely on large amounts of natural gas as long as they have fuel assurance mechanisms, and Florida does that very well,” Moura said. “They have dual-fuel requirements as well as firm transportation … and the pipeline was really built for the natural gas generation in that area.”

Moura also said PJM’s Capacity Performance requirements and ISO-NE’s Pay-for-Performance program is “exactly what we’re looking for.”

“But the jury’s still out as to whether or not those penalties for nonperformance will compel generators to get dual fuel. … At least in New England, states have been very clear that new natural gas pipelines aren’t wanted.”

NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment

| NERC

The report also pointed out that the 0.61% (summer) and 0.6% (winter) 10-year annual demand growth rate for North America is the lowest on record. Despite flat loads, it noted grid operators added more transmission during 2006-2015 compared to 1991-2005.

NYISO Business Issues Committee Briefs: Dec. 13, 2017

RENSSELAER, N.Y. — NYISO year-to-date monthly energy prices averaged $34.72/MWh in November, a 5% increase from a year earlier, Senior Vice President for Market Structures Rana Mukerji told the ISO’s Business Issues Committee (BIC) on Wednesday.

Locational-based marginal prices (LBMPs) averaged $30.60/MWh for the month, up 8% from October and up 16% from November 2016. The ISO’s average daily sendout was 403 GWh/d, compared with 398 in October and a year earlier.

NYISO monthly energy prices LBMPs
| NYISO

New York natural gas prices gained nearly 19% in November, averaging $2.92/MMBtu at the Transco Z6 hub. Prices were up 33.5% from a year ago.

Distillate prices gained 31% year on year, with Jet Kerosene Gulf Coast averaging $13.04/MMBtu, up from $12.30 in October. Ultra Low Sulfur No. 2 Diesel NY Harbor averaged $13.70/MMBtu, compared with $12.86 in October.

The ISO’s local reliability share was 20 cents/MWh, up 6 cents/MWh from the previous month, while the statewide share dropped 10 cents/MWh from the previous month to -50 cents/MWh. Total uplift costs were lower than in October.

NYISO PJM natural gas prices MISO operations business plan
| NYISO

RTC and RTD Efficiency

In reviewing NYISO’s Broader Regional Markets report, Mukerji highlighted the ISO’s effort to increase the consistency between real-time commitment (RTC) and real-time dispatch (RTD) modeling and identify improvements to look-ahead evaluations in order to improve scheduling and price convergence. The Market Issues Working Group reviewed staff analysis of the issue Dec. 5, and the ISO expects by the end of the year to release a whitepaper identifying efforts to further explore RTC-RTD convergence in 2018.

Mukerji also noted that PJM has asked NYISO to review the former’s proposed pro forma pseudo-tie agreement that would apply to New York Control Area generators that sell all or a portion of their capacity to the RTO. PJM would provide commitment and dispatch instructions to pseudo-tied generators, which would be committed and dispatched to meet the RTO’s — rather than NYISO’s — needs.

NYISO has expressed concerns about using PJM’s proposed pseudo-tie agreement but said it’s prepared to work with the RTO to evaluate potential alternate solutions acceptable to both grid operators. FERC last month issued an order (ER17-1138) accepting many of PJM’s proposed pseudo-tie rules. Rehearing requests on the order are due Dec. 15, and NYISO said it was still evaluating its options.

Mukerji said NYISO is also modifying the rules for documenting capacity imports across PJM AC ties. The ISO’s proposal would require load-serving entities to submit evidence that an external resource with a capacity award has firm transmission service across the ties on the same day installed capacity (ICAP) results are posted. The Installed Capacity Working Group last month reviewed sample document types that would satisfy the requirement, which is slated to become effective May 1, 2018.

NYISO is additionally negotiating with PJM on cost sharing for the Ramapo 3500 phase angle regulator that was replaced by Consolidated Edison in September and plans to hold a joint NYISO/PJM stakeholder meeting on the issue in early 2018, Mukerji said.

On/Off Ramp Rule Changes

The committee also reviewed a complete market design proposal for “on/off ramp” rules the ISO uses to decide whether to eliminate or create localities within its market. Randy Wyatt, senior market design specialist for the ISO, told the committee that the proposed methodology is based on reliability planning principles.

Wyatt said the project is designed to ensure that locality price signals allow developers to make informed and efficient investments that enhance grid reliability. The committee will take up the subject again in the first quarter of 2018.

Charter Update for Integrating Public Policy Task Force

NYISO Executive Vice President Rich Dewey presented a revised charter for the Integrating Public Policy Task Force (IPPTF), which he said incorporated “some, but not all” stakeholder comments received so far.

The charter states that the BIC will receive monthly progress reports from the task force and that “any potential changes to NYISO tariffs, agreements, manuals or any other guiding documents” will be subjected to the ISO’s governance process.

NYISO and the New York Public Service Commission jointly formed the task force in October to create a forum for stakeholders to discuss pricing carbon into the wholesale electricity market. The task force held its first technical conference on Monday. (See New York Hashes out Details of Carbon Policy.)

Dewey acknowledged that there had been some confusion about why a new group was needed and explained that planners realized that integrating the state’s policy on carbon into the power markets would require a high degree of coordination between the ISO and state agencies.

The IPPTF’s next public hearing is scheduled for Jan. 8 in Albany.

— Michael Kuser

CAISO Plan Extends Day-Ahead Market to EIM

By Jason Fordney

CAISO is floating a proposal that would extend many of the features of its day-ahead market into the footprint of the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) while possibly averting some of the thorny governance issues related to regionalization of the ISO.

CAISO EIM day-ahead market
CAISO’s 2018 Policy Roadmap | CAISO

The proposal is part of a broader plan focused on improving CAISO’s day-ahead market to better deal with emerging trends in resource procurement and planning, the ISO said. CAISO is including the plan in its Draft 2018 Policy Roadmap, which will guide the ISO’s many ongoing initiatives over the next three years related to grid operations, markets, new resources and generator retirements.

But a proposed expansion of the ISO’s day-ahead market could face competition from other corners. Reliability coordinator Peak Reliability and PJM announced last week they will explore the development of markets and other services in the West. (See PJM Unit to Help Develop Western Markets.) Farther inland, Mountain West Transmission Group is advancing on plans to integrate its member utilities into SPP.

California’s efforts to regionalize CAISO’s operations have twice stalled in the State Legislature in the last two years over concerns the state would cede too much oversight of its grid to other Western states less friendly to its ambitious environmental policies. Those states, in turn, have been wary of submitting control of their transmission systems to an entity controlled by their much larger neighbor.

An industry source, who wished to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to speak publicly, told RTO Insider that several present and future EIM members were gathering in Phoenix this week to discuss changes to the ISO’s day-ahead market. But Idaho Power spokesperson Brad Bowlin could not confirm the meeting.

“Unfortunately, we are not able to respond to your questions about this,” Bowlin said. “Any information will have to come directly from CAISO.” Idaho Power is scheduled to join the EIM next spring.

ISO spokesman Steven Greenlee said he was not aware of the meeting.

CAISO EIM day-ahead market
Integrated resource plans, resource adequacy and CAISO markets must align to meet policy goals | CAISO

The ISO’s proposal would create something like an “RTO-lite,” allowing for each EIM balancing authority (BA) to retain its reliability responsibilities and assuring that states could maintain control over integrated resource planning. Under the plan, resource procurement would remain under the authority of local regulators that — along with BAs — would continue to direct transmission planning and investment decisions.

CAISO said its effort would target better load management, more integration of distributed resources and enhancements to the EIM. Primary among the challenges the ISO faces is a shift toward more renewable and distributed energy resources, and conflicts between resource planning and reliability planning that are driving an increased need for out-of-market reliability-must run contracts for natural gas plants. (See Board Decisions Highlight CAISO Market Problems.)

“Recent grid operations challenges [point] to [the] need for day-ahead market enhancements to better manage [the] net load curve in real time,” the ISO said in a presentation prepared for a Dec. 14 call about the roadmap.

Extending the day-ahead market to the EIM would improve scheduling efficiency and integration of renewables, and allow EIM participants to take advantage of enhancements to the market, the ISO said. The ISO re-prioritized its initiatives to focus on the day-ahead market changes as well as deferring development of some other market products.

CAISO is proposing changes to the day-ahead market to “address net load curve and uncertainty previously left to [the] real-time market.” These include 15-minute scheduling granularity and a “flexible reserve” product that pays resources for must-offer obligations in the real-time market to address load uncertainty. Also being contemplated is combining the integrated forward market and the residual unit commitment process.

Extending the day-ahead market to the EIM would require market members to align transmission access charge models, according to the ISO. It would also involve expanding congestion revenue rights across the expanded footprint and analyzing day-ahead resources so balancing areas don’t “lean on” each other for capacity, flexibility or transmission.

The ISO is also planning collaborative programs with the California Public Utilities Commission to better align resource adequacy planning with reliability planning and the changing grid.

The policy initiatives catalog lists CAISO’s many ongoing updates to market rules, the EIM, distributed resources, generation retirements and changing conditions on the grid. Part of the roadmap process is the February updating of the catalog.

The final roadmap is due to be posted on Jan. 10, and more stakeholder calls will be held prior to review by the CAISO Board of Governors on Feb. 15. The ISO will accept comments on the draft roadmap until Jan. 4.

Tight Supplies, Solar Ramps Drive CAISO Summer Spikes

By Jason Fordney

CAISO day-ahead prices hit all-time highs for the second time this year during the third quarter, and the frequency of price spikes in the 15-minute and five-minute markets increased, the ISO’s Department of Market Monitoring said in its quarterly market performance report.

CAISO day-ahead prices
| CAISO

High temperatures in California drove up demand at the beginning and end of August and into September, according to the report. Load peaked at 50,116 MW on Sept. 1, just short of the 50,270-MW peak record set in July 2006. Trading that day also saw day-ahead system marginal prices soar over $200/MWh during a four-hour period and hit $770/MWh in one interval.

CAISO day-ahead prices
| CAISO

“These outcomes were primarily driven by tight supply conditions as a result of a number of factors in combination with high demand while a significant amount of solar production is ramping down during sunset hours,” the report said. Average 15-minute market prices increased during every month of the third quarter from about $34/MWh in June to more than $45/MWh in September because of higher temperatures and loads.

The Monitor also confirmed that software problems had caused day-ahead prices to hit record highs in the second quarter even after being mitigated. In its second-quarter report, the department had noted that prices should not rise after mitigation and said it was investigating the cause. (See Monitor: CAISO Q2 Prices Hit Record Despite Mitigation.) The third-quarter report said the error was fixed on July 22.

“The ISO has determined that a software error introduced in 2016 resulted in infeasible energy and ancillary service awards for resources in the market power mitigation run but not the binding market run in the day-ahead market,” the Monitor said in the third-quarter report. “The software error resulted in an erroneous increase in supply available in the market power mitigation run, causing prices in that run to be lower than they would have been had all awarded schedules been feasible.”

CAISO is “currently evaluating the impact of this error on the market power mitigation process on affected days,” the report said.

Day-ahead prices appeared to be competitive in most hours, the Monitor said, and total year-to-date wholesale energy costs are close to 2016 totals, after the prices are adjusted for natural gas and greenhouse gas prices. Higher gas prices resulted in larger overall energy costs for 2017.

Transmission congestion was low in the day-ahead market in the Pacific Gas and Electric and Southern California Edison service areas but caused prices to drop about 2% in San Diego Gas & Electric’s area. Congestion in the 15-minute market pushed up prices in PG&E and SCE and decreased SDG&E prices. Frequent congestion on the Doublet Tap-Friars 138-kV constraint created an export-constrained area, undercutting prices in San Diego.

The Monitor said its analysis of natural gas price volatility shows a limited need for increased bidding flexibility created by raising commitment cost and default energy bid caps. CAISO followed the department’s recommendation and reduced the Aliso Canyon real-time gas scalars to zero beginning Aug. 1, raising them again temporarily Aug. 4-7 because of hot conditions.

Congestion revenue rights auctions took in $9 million less than payments to entities purchasing those rights, increasing year-to-date ratepayer losses to $38 million and to more than $680 million since the market began in 2009. The Monitor for more than a year has been calling for CAISO to eliminate CRR auctions. (See CAISO Monitor Proposes End to Revenue Rights Auction.)

The Monitor will discuss the third-quarter report with market participants during a Dec. 20 conference call.

NRC Staff, Industry Favor Plant Self-Assessments; Others Wary

By Michael Kuser

A Nuclear Regulatory Commission official said Tuesday that a team of the federal agency’s reactor safety engineers would likely recommend that the commission continue working on replacing a portion of its inspections with a self-assessment regime for operators of commercial nuclear power plants.

Tony Gody, NRC director of reactor safety in Region II (Southeast), said Dec. 12 that “the working group agrees that self-assessment, if implemented properly, can be very effective in finding latent conditions” and probably will be recommending further exploration of how to get there via a pilot program.

NRC self-assessments nuclear plant
| NRC

Gody made his remarks at the end of the agency’s second public hearing in two months on the use of licensee self-assessments in the NRC engineering inspection program and other changes in the reactor oversight process.

The Director of the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation formed the working group in February 2017 to review the commission’s engineering inspections that verify the adequacy of facility design, operations and testing, and make recommendations on improving both their effectiveness and efficiency. The commission has a webpage with related documents, including public comment.

The Good and the Bad

“We need to collectively as an industry own our own licensing design basis and regulatory performance,” said Greg Halnon, vice president for regulatory affairs at FirstEnergy, which owns two nuclear power plants in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania. The plants are the Davis-Besse plant in Oak Harbor, Ohio, the Perry plant in Perry, Ohio, and the two-unit Beaver Valley plant in Shippingport, Pa., which collectively generate 4,000 MW.

“We’re not abdicating our responsibility; we’re maintaining and owning that licensing basis,” Halnon said.

Dave Lochbaum, director of the Nuclear Safety Project for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the 17 years of the reactor oversight process “have resulted in safety improvements, there’s no doubt about that, but achieving success loses value if backsliding occurs. … Our concern is, some of the measures being contemplated are banking on that success at risk of undermining it.”

nrc self-assessment nuclear plant
NRC Inspectors: (L-R) NRC inspectors Robert Krsek, Annie Kammerer and Steve Campbell check emergency diesel generators at the Kewaunee nuclear power plant in Carlton, Wisconsin in 2012, one year before the plant closed | NRC

Gody said that if whoever is doing an inspection or a self-assessment applies scientific principles, “it’s going to be a good inspection or self-assessment. And the fact that your own folks are already so familiar with your procedures, and the fact that your own folks already have computer accounts, already know the processes at the facility, already know the licensing basis, is a good thing and a bad thing.”

The good thing is they’ll be more efficient, he said.

“The bad thing is they may have preconceived conclusions,” Gody said. “It’s critical that when that checklist is developed that critical thinking is considered. If you accomplish that one thing, you potentially eliminate the human factor disposition to not challenge your own conclusions.”

Lochbaum said he wanted to push back on the “fanciful notion that there aren’t any more legacy, latent issues out there. There seem to be plenty of latent issues from long ago that we still haven’t found. Fort Calhoun [in Nebraska] is a perfect example, which shut down in 2011 and didn’t restart for 30 months. During that time, they submitted something like 18 LERs [licensee event reports], with the youngest of those being 15 years earlier, so they were at least 15 years old. Several of those involved engineering issues.”

Getting to the point of metrics, Lochbaum said “we recommended before and recommend again that the NRC should have looked at those LERs to see if the expectations were that the engineering inspections should have or may have identified those before they were found during an extended plant shutdown.”

NEI Supports

The Nuclear Energy Institute supports self-assessments, saying plant operators already do their own inspections in advance of NRC visits. “We believe that licensee self-assessments could be an important part of a modernized approach to engineering inspections. Such a solution would be rooted in our cultural value of self-identifying issues,” Greg Cameron, NEI’s senior project manager for regulatory affairs, wrote the commission in July. “We hold ourselves accountable to identify conditions at our stations early and to resolve them in a timely fashion commensurate with their safety significance; the NRC verifies that accountability through regular resident inspector interactions and the biennial Problem Identification and Resolution inspection. Transitioning from direct inspection to oversight of self-assessment activities, where appropriate, strengthens this accountability.”

Concerns in Mass.

But the self-assessment concept is unpopular with some neighbors of Entergy’s Pilgrim nuclear plant in Massachusetts, one of three plants in the country classified in Column 4 — the worst performers in NRC’s grading system.

A citizens group, Pilgrim Watch, cited an email written by the leader of a federal inspection team, who wrote that “the plant seems overwhelmed just trying to run the station.” The internal email became public mistakenly.

“Pilgrim provides the perfect example why NRC nuclear safety inspections are necessary and why industry self-assessments would be dangerous,” the group wrote NRC. “Pilgrim cannot be counted on to conduct any complete or accurate self-assessment. The NRC’s own records prove that Pilgrim has regularly and consistently failed to follow established procedures, to report problems, or to take corrective actions even when the NRC tells it to do so.”

New York Hashes out Details of Carbon Policy

By Michael Kuser

ALBANY, N.Y. — When pricing carbon into the wholesale electricity markets, remember to keep it simple.

Also: avoid unintentional emissions increases, mind the transmission needed, incent new renewable resources, abate emissions efficiently without hurting consumers, allocate revenues fairly, and leave the legal hassles for the due processes of regulators and NYISO.

NYISO carbon pricing

About 50 people attended the first technical conference of the Integrating Public Policy Task Force (IPPTF) in Albany | © RTO Insider

Those were some of the stakeholder comments Monday at the first technical conference of the Integrating Public Policy Task Force (IPPTF), which was established in October by NYISO and the state’s Public Service Commission to explore the carbon pricing issue as laid out in a Brattle Group report.

About 50 people attended the meeting, including PSC Chair John Rhodes. (See New York Works to Frame Carbon Policy.)

Paul Hibbard of The Analysis Group facilitated two roundtable discussions, each with 23 stakeholders. The morning session addressed border adjustment mechanisms to prevent “carbon leakage,” a parallel increase in emissions in regions neighboring New York.

NYISO carbon pricing

Left to right: Marco Padula, DPS; Paul Hibbard, Analysis Group; and Nicole Bouchez, NYISO | © RTO Insider

“You don’t have to have the absolute perfect solution to leakage to go forward,” said Mark Reeder, an economist who represents the Alliance for Clean Energy New York at NYISO. “You just need to get most of the way there. Say if you can knock out 80 to 85% of the leakage problems at a $40 carbon price, you bring it down in essence to the latest we have now with a fairly small [Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative] price and you’ve done the job.”

In looking at leakage issues in RGGI states and California, Reeder said “the unit-specific approach and the resource shuffling is a real bad idea and does create a lot of problems. The example here is that a nuclear plant in Pennsylvania that’s just selling spot-in in Pennsylvania could sign a contract to sell it to New York, and if New York declares that clean, we could work on that later, but it doesn’t work.”

Resource shuffling refers to the practice of utilities scheduling their lowest-emission generators to serve areas with emissions caps, while letting heavier polluters simultaneously serve customers in other regions.

“It’s important to move forward with carbon pricing principles and not use leakage as a way to delay,” said Gavin Donohue, president of the Independent Power Producers of New York. “We don’t need to reinvent the wheel.”

“You really get different answers depending on how you think about the question,” said David Clarke of the Long Island Power Authority. “For example, if you have a uniform carbon tax on all sectors, you’d be thinking about offsets; you think about where are the places where folks can make the investments that have the largest carbon reduction at the lowest cost.”

Baseline Leakage

“When you’ve got regions surrounding New York with such a wide range of marginal emissions rates, to start with a broad-brush approach, applying the New York rate to all of them will have pretty obvious unintended consequences,” said Stephen Molodetz, vice president of Hydro-Quebec. “Quebec is zero or near zero and Ontario is close to that; then you’ve got PJM, which is a higher emitter than New York.”

Don Tretheway, CAISO senior adviser for market design and regulatory policy, said some power producers outside the ISO have a resource portfolio with a significantly lower emissions profile than the default emissions rate for their region. In those cases, the ISO wants to give them the benefit of having cleaner resources.

“That’s relatively straightforward to implement from a market standpoint,” Tretheway said. “We can have each of the individual resources put their estimate of carbon compliance costs into their energy bids and we can dispatch away and everything works.”

Tretheway noted how the roll-out of the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) further complicated CAISO’s treatment of greenhouse gas costs.

“The complexity CAISO introduced with the Energy Imbalance Market is that, not only did we need to solve to meet load in California that has a [greenhouse gas] program, but we had to actually solve to meet load in other states that don’t, and that’s where we had to separate those greenhouse gas costs into separate bids,” Tretheway said.

Mark Younger of Hudson Energy Economics said “what California is doing now is probably a mistake. [New York] should have a very high bar on resource-specific carbon pricing. Just because you can contract with what is nominally a clean resource, doesn’t mean that you in any way affected what the emissions were in the neighboring area other than by the fact that there was a bigger import to New York, regardless of resource.”

Allocating Carbon Revenue

The afternoon roundtable discussed how — and whether — New York would allocate revenues collected from a carbon pricing scheme.

NYISO carbon pricing

Dewey | © RTO Insider

NYISO Executive Vice President Rich Dewey said, “We’re conflating a couple issues here. First and foremost, we need to decide if there’s going to be a fund. When I think about how the NYISO settlements process works today, that revenue amount only exists for the microsecond it takes to do the calculation in the settlement itself, so there is no actual fund.

“At NYISO we’re not setting the policy, we’re administering the market,” he continued. “Be that as it may, you may have the desire, for the greater good, to create a fund in some capacity. Then we have to decide where is that fund.”

Miles Farmer of the Natural Resources Defense Council said that if the PSC determines what load-serving entities must do with carbon revenues, “that’s bounded under the legal constraints of PSC ratemaking, and you can’t have just general slush funds of money the way that it happens with RGGI.”

NYISO Senior Manager for Market Design Michael DeSocio said that when considering a carbon revenue fund, “we haven’t actually talked about what does the rate look like. And there are components of the rate that go into various funds already — a congestion rent fund, there’s a loss fund — all of that money is already allocated in some way based on various other markets. We want to do this in a way that doesn’t unnecessarily increase the cost to customers.”

Kelli Joseph, NRG Energy’s director of market and regulatory affairs, said that making carbon pricing sustainable requires considering how RGGI moneys have been used for energy efficiency and incenting renewables in to help reduce greenhouse gases.

“The [Brattle] report assumes a certain marginal emissions rate that may not be true over time,” Joseph said. “Over time, those marginal emission rates are going to decrease and there’s probably not going to be anything left to refund because there’s not going to be a lot of carbon-emitting resources on the system.”

NYISO PSC carbon emissions PJM Insider

Weiner | © RTO Insider

Scott Weiner, Department of Public Service deputy for markets and innovation, cautioned roundtable participants about getting caught up in the legal details so early in the planning process.

“It’s going to be a collaborative effort and will be vetted legally,” Weiner said. “We will subject everything to the governance processes of NYISO, so there are a lot of legal issues, and in the absence of specific facts … I urge you to leave the legal discussion to another day.”

Task force co-chair Nicole Bouchez, a NYISO market design economist, said they had decided to cancel the Dec. 18 task force meeting and will next meet on Jan. 8, 2018.

California Proposes Resource Adequacy Obligations for CCAs

By Jason Fordney

California regulators are set to vote next month on a proposal that community choice aggregators (CCAs) be subject to the resource adequacy requirements of electric utilities.

The California Public Utilities Commission’s approval would require CCAs to comply with resource adequacy rules “in order to ensure that sufficient energy supply for customers is being procured by the appropriate utility.”

Yellow dots = Operational CCAs; green dots = CCAs launched in 2017; blue dots = CCAs in process or being explored | California PUC

The proposal modifies the timelines for the creation of CCAs so that they are coordinated with the annual CPUC and CAISO resource adequacy and reliability programs. It would require CCAs to submit to a process that includes a timeline for submission of implementation plans; a ‘meet and confer’ requirement between the CCA and the incumbent utility that can be triggered by either; a registration packet including a CCA’s service agreement and bond; and a commission-authorized date to begin service.

It also calls for “universal access” to CCAs, equitable treatment of all customers and compliance with state laws regarding aggregated service. All prospective and expanding CCAs would be subject to the requirements for implementation plans received after Dec. 8, 2017.

CCAs are growing rapidly, creating some controversy over the stranded costs for regular utility customers. California legislators expressed surprise last summer when they were told that utility customers will be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in long-term energy contracts procured by investor-owned utilities for customers who have departed for CCAs. (See California CCAs Spur Worry of Regulatory Crisis.)

The idea has been embraced by cities surrounding the San Francisco Bay Area that promote CCAs as “green” electricity programs. It was municipalities in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas that lobbied for CCAs in response to a failed deregulation effort that in part caused the Western Energy Crisis of 2000/01. AB 117, enacted in 2002, allows local governments to form CCAs by aggregating retail customers and securing electricity supply contracts to serve them. CCAs also exist in Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Illinois.

CCAs are popular in the San Francisco Bay area as a tool to increase renewable energy goals | © RTO Insider

Pacific Gas and Electric, which has opposed CCAs, argued to state lawmakers in August that about $180 million has been shifted from CCA customers to IOU customers — an amount it said will grow to $500 million by 2020.

California CCAs include Apple Valley Choice Energy, CleanPower San Francisco, Lancaster Choice Energy, Marin Clean Energy, Peninsula Clean Energy in San Mateo County, Redwood Coast Energy Authority, Silicon Valley Clean Energy and Sonoma Clean Power.

Investors Slam Congress; Say Economics will Trump Policy

By Rich Heidorn Jr.

WASHINGTON — A panel on investing in grid innovation and clean energy infrastructure last week gave Congress low marks and said emerging economies are proving quicker to adopt some technologies. But speakers at the GridWise Alliance’s GridCONNEXT conference said they are bullish on the future.

Speaking on clean energy investment trends were (left to right) moderator Ron Pernick, Clean Edge; Puon Penn, Wells Fargo; David Yeh, Capitol Hill advisory, and Nancy Pfund, DBL Investors. | © RTO Insider

REV MACRUC Donald Trump Potomac Economics
Yeh | © RTO Insider

David Yeh, a White House adviser during the Obama administration who is now managing director of Capitol Hill, an advisory firm for high net worth individuals, global asset managers and start-ups, said he is not overly concerned with the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) provision in the tax bill passed by the Senate earlier this month. Some renewable advocates fear the language, which is intended to prevent multinational corporations from moving profits and jobs out of the U.S., will reduce the value of wind and solar tax credits.

“Right now clean energy, especially at the utility scale, is competitive, if not cheaper than, fossil fuel energy. So, you can talk about regulation; you can talk about policy. But economics will trump all of that.

“This year, clean energy funds raised about $5 billion, while fossil fuels have raised about $2 billion. That’s showing what the demands are from the … capital providers [and allocators] of this world. … These are sovereign wealth funds; these are pensions; these are large, super high net worth families. … This is how the capital markets — and these are capital markets that start with a ‘T’ — trillions — view clean energy infrastructure. When they move their allocation from 1% to 5%, that’s a game changer. And they’re moving towards that.”

Have Peakers Peaked?

Pfund | © RTO Insider

Nancy Pfund, founder and managing partner of DBL Partners, predicted that there will be few gas-fired peaking plants built in California in the future.

“They’re expensive. People don’t like them. They’re [crude] compared to solar and storage or wind or demand response or any combination. That’s an example that you have to let go of what the 20th century was all about. This is really different and if you stand in the way … of consumers who want their solar or want batteries, they are going to run you over.”

An ‘F’ for Policymakers

Policymakers in D.C. haven’t heard that message, however, she said, as reflected in “the $4 billion worth of annual subsidies that the fossil industry gets.”

“If the people on Capitol Hill were in a public policy class or business school course, they would get an ‘F’ because [they are subsidizing] an industry that’s 100 years old. I think anyone in our [clean energy] industry would say we would love a level playing field. Get rid of all incentives. But it’s kind of a ‘David and Goliath’ story at this point.”

Penn | © RTO Insider

Puon Penn, executive vice president and head of technology capital for Wells Fargo, said investors would be wise to look past the U.S. to China and other growing economies that have committed to abandoning the internal combustion engine in favor of electric vehicles.

“Do you think the [original equipment manufacturers] … the Fords and the GMs are looking at the United States as their primary market today? They sell more vehicles in China. And if you’ve got to make electric vehicles for the Chinese market, you’re damn well not going to make a bunch of internal combustion vehicles for the United States. You’re just going to build one platform that you’re going to distribute across the planet. It’s inevitable. But people are still behaving like we’re still [the] Jolly Green Giant walking the earth and determining the order of things. We’re not anymore.”

Penn said new technologies are allowing greater capacity utilization in the electric industry than in the past. “There’s no other industries where you have high [capital expenditures] and such low capacity utilization,” he said. “Today we do have the wherewithal to increase capacity utilization and therefore benefit the entire economy.”

Energy Storage Well Past the ‘Tipping Point,’ Panel Says

By Rich Heidorn Jr.

WASHINGTON — Speakers at the GridWise Alliance’s GridCONNEXT conference last week left no doubt: Electric storage is long past the “tipping point.”

Moderator Ram Sastry, vice president of infrastructure and business continuity for American Electric Power, had posed the question: “Are we going to see large-scale deployment of energy storage systems? And if not, what’s stopping that?”

“I think we’re at or past that tipping point,” responded Andy Marshall, practice director for distributed energy resource management at Landis & Gyr. “I think you see the flexibility of storage and its ability to get deployed relatively quickly. You have not only the stuff that’s going on down in Australia, but you also have the things that are happening most recently in California.”

On Dec. 1 — the first day of summer for Australia — Tesla turned on a 129-MWh lithium ion battery, the world’s largest,   to help the nation’s fragile electric grid. California deployed 100 MW of storage in just six months in response to natural gas constraints following the Aliso Canyon leak.

Praveen Kathpal, vice president of AES Energy Storage, said “the technology is mature,” noting that his company entered the business a decade ago. AES claims 500 MW of storage already deployed or in development.

“There haven’t been any components that needed to be invented for any of the deployments that we’ve done, because they’re all based on lithium ion battery technology, which was commercialized 25 years ago and has benefited from its use in the consumer electronics and transportation sector,” Kathpal said.

“The tipping point we see in storage is really meshing with some of the other megatrends facing our industry right now. We have the accelerated growth in renewables, and we also have the electrification of more sectors including transportation.”

Kathpal predicted new storage technologies will break below the current pricing floor for lithium ion. “So, 10 years from now, do I think we’ll have a commercially available storage technology that’s below $100/kWh? Sure. And that’s exactly why at AES the technology platform we’ve developed is forward compatible with technology change.”

“I think you could argue that the tipping point was several years ago when big PJM systems started to come online,” said Luke Witmer, lead research engineer for Wärtsilä’s Greensmith Energy. “More and more markets continue to value the fast-ramping and bidirectional capability that energy storage provides. And I think as … systems continue to decline in cost, we will compete in more and more markets. A lot of the market prices basically clear according to the natural gas price. … So it’s really just a matter of getting renewables plus storage to below that threshold in more and more places.”

Richard Brody, director of sales and marketing for Lockheed Martin Energy’s energy storage unit, said storage is still relatively expensive when compared with energy efficiency and demand response.

“Whether we’re talking about a C&I customer or a distribution utility, when we come look at an energy problem, we look not just at storage, but we start with efficiency, permanent load reduction, load control, demand response, demand management, grid analytics — all the tools you can bring to solve an energy problem. … We tend to look at other things first because storage — despite the declining costs — remains the most expensive way to address these problems.”

But he is nevertheless bullish on storage. “In terms of the tipping point — oh yeah, we’re passed it. This is a rapidly growing market.

“We’re seeing very strong growth in interest in doing large solar and wind coupled with storage. Most of the large developers we’re working with aren’t contemplating any large development of solar — and increasingly wind — without some way to firm it up with a fairly significant storage system.”

Brody said the demands are exceeding the four-hour maximum life for lithium ion batteries. “We’re looking at much more ambitious efforts that would require the attributes of a flow battery, which is a minimum of six to 12 hours of energy.”

Report: Costly Coal Undermining SPP Market, Bilking Consumers

By Tom Kleckner

A Sierra Club report released last week that said captive customers of SPP utilities are paying for uneconomical coal plants has drawn considerable pushback from the RTO and some of its members.

But the head of SPP’s Market Monitoring Unit (MMU) says the environmental group has a point in its criticism of utilities that self-commit coal generators when the RTO’s market prices don’t cover their operating costs.

When a utility self-commits a unit, it operates the plant regardless of whether SPP’s market clearing prices are sufficient to cover the plant’s marginal costs. Although self-committed units are ineligible to receive make-whole payments from SPP, the Sierra Club says, some units are apparently recovering losses from captive customers through state ratemaking proceedings.

The Sierra Club report, “Backdoor Subsidies for Coal in the Southwest Power Pool,” alleges that utilities in the footprint operate coal plants outside the wholesale markets, generating $300 million in excess costs that consumers were forced to pick up in 2015 and 2016.

SPP and its members responded by saying the Sierra Club’s analysis relied heavily on wholesale rates, which aren’t the same as retail rates that are subject to public policy and regulations. Nor do wholesale rates consider the cost of long-term supply contracts or ensuring grid reliability, they said.

MMU Sees Problem

SPP Sierra Club State of the Market report
Collins | © RTO Insider

Keith Collins, executive director of the MMU, says that while the report took some of the MMU’s observations out of context, self-commitment is a problem in the RTO’s markets. MMU staff raised the issue in their 2016 State of the Market report, which Collins reviewed with SPP’s Board of Directors and Members Committee in July.

The Sierra Club said it conducted a “high-resolution analysis” of 14 coal plants in SPP’s footprint. It used hourly market data to develop each plant’s cash flow analysis.

“All 14 units operated for extended periods of time when, objectively, it would have been less expensive for the electric bills of utility customers for the plants to sit idle,” the group’s report said. “The utilities that own each of the 14 coal units we examined would have saved its customers money if the coal units had operated less often.”

The report said all but one of the 14 units studied were owned by state-regulated utilities, municipal utilities or an electric cooperative with captive customers.

Utilities should be purchasing electricity for its captive customers in the SPP Integrated Marketplace (IM), the report said. But it said some utilities “appear to be going back to state commissions and using rate cases and other dockets to obtain ratepayer-funded subsidies for costs incurred in operating otherwise uneconomic coal plants.”

“In the SPP market, where nearly half of the resources are self-committing, how much of an energy market can SPP really be claiming to operate?” the report asked. “The consequence of these facts is that the SPP Integrated Market is possibly a market in name only. The impact of utility self-commit and underbidding energy offers within the SPP IM might be the most anticompetitive and anti-consumer behavior in any integrated electricity market anywhere in North America.”

The report also says self-committed coal units are denying revenues to independent merchant generators. “RTOs are supposed to create nondiscriminatory rates, but allowing coal units to self-commit discriminates against those operators that don’t have captive customers to fund a ratepayer subsidy. Moreover, it is discriminatory and unreasonable for the market to ask one subset of customers to pay above-market costs while all other customers pay market costs.”

Collins told the board and members that self-commitment of resources has declined but is “still very big.”

“When resources are self-committing, it can put downward pressure on prices also,” he said at the time, referring to the effects of incorporating uneconomic resources in wholesale prices.

“The point of the [Sierra Club’s] report is consistent with what we noted in the 2016 annual report,” Collins told RTO Insider. “Self-commitment can distort the market. It’s a message we’ve been presenting as well.”

The MMU report noted generation offers in the day-ahead market averaged 48% as “market” commitments and 35% for “self-commit” in 2016. Those numbers were 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2015. Outages accounted for the remainder.

The Sierra Club report quoted the MMU report, which said plants self-commit because of contract terms, low gas prices “that reduce the opportunity for coal units to be economically cleared in the day-ahead market,” long start-up times, and “a risk-averse business practice approach.”

Collins took exception to the Sierra Club’s claim that “reliability isn’t one” of the reasons why a unit might self-commit.

Although the MMU’s report didn’t cite reliability, Collins said, “reliability could play a factor where some of these resources self-commit. Our report identified a set of reasons for self-committing, rather than a complete list.

“We have been discussing this essentially since I’ve been here,” said Collins, a former FERC staffer who joined SPP in June from CAISO. “What are the factors [behind self-commitment]? What can we do to promote more market commitment? Some of it is education and creating awareness. At least there’s a dialogue there that’s begun.”

SPP Disagrees

SPP General Counsel Paul Suskie said in a statement that the RTO disagreed with the report’s fundamental assertion that “utilities’ option to either self-commit resources or purchase from the market equates to a subsidy and undermines the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of SPP’s Integrated Marketplace.”

Suskie said that “assessing the market’s fairness and effectiveness based on wholesale cost of electricity to consumers does not take into consideration a number of factors that may lead utilities to self-commit.” He listed contractual obligations, capital investments, public policy and fossil fuels’ contribution to renewable resources’ deliverability as among those factors.

“Our day-ahead market has functioned successfully for four years and, in that time, has reduced the cost of energy in our region by more than $1.25 billion while continuing to ensure the reliability of the grid,” Suskie said.

Peter Main, a spokesman for SPP member Southwestern Electric Power Co., said the company bids its generation into the RTO’s markets under its market protocols and will continue “to seek opportunities” to produce net energy revenues benefiting its customers.

“The Sierra Club report does not provide an accurate portrayal of the incremental (variable) costs and revenues associated with offering generation into the SPP Integrated Marketplace,” Main said in a statement.

Plant Operators Dispute Findings

According to the report, SWEPCO’s Dolet Hills and Pirkey plants in the East Texas-Louisiana region burdened customers with $210 million in costs in 2015 and 2016. However, SPP said the plants serve load in “locations in northeast Texas without significant wind.”

Oklahoma Gas and Electric, which owns two of the plants identified in the study, has said the units stopped self-committing into the market more than two years ago. Two other generators — Entergy-owned or co-owned plants in Arkansas — serve load in MISO.

Al Armendariz, with the Sierra Club’s Lone Star chapter, said he was confident the group has a “good handle on the cost to run these coal plants in SPP.”

Armendariz, who worked in EPA under President Barack Obama, said the Sierra Club compared the SPP LMPs paid to power plants in the immediate vicinity of the coal plants studied. The organization obtained operating data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and SPP in running its analysis.

“Our report is really a comparison of the revenue for electricity, compared to what it costs to actually run the power plant,” Armendariz said.

Rule Changes Sought

The Sierra Club would like to see several things happen, Armendariz said. “We think SPP should clarify its rules to require power plants to bid in their real cost of fuel and other variable [operations and maintenance] … in the day-ahead market.”

Armendariz also said the Sierra Club would like to see state commissions in SPP’s footprint “investigate this problem of self-commitment and disallow the recovery of costs borne by consumers when uncompetitive coal plants are operating.”

“Vertically integrated utilities should not be forcing their customers to pay the variable costs,” he said. “State commissions should not allow the recovery of those costs through the rate base.”

Asked whether the group planned to file a complaint with FERC, Armendariz told RTO Insider that the Sierra Club “is evaluating all avenues of legal recourse that may be available to rectify the problems.”

Both Armendariz and Collins agreed the problem of self-commitment is not unique to SPP. Collins said he saw self-dispatch at CAISO and “knows” it occurs in other markets. Armendariz said although uncompetitive coal plants are running in “virtually every market … the problem seems most acute in SPP.”

The MMU believes that will change as market participants continue to familiarize themselves with SPP’s day-ahead and real-time markets, which have been in operation for less than four years.

“It appears that resource owners are becoming more confident in the market and allowing the market to commit the resource instead of self-committing their resource,” the State of the Market report said.

The Monitor also said the market systems’ optimization algorithm is restricted to a 48-hour window. “Hence, large baseload resources with long-lead time and substantial start-up costs may not appear economic to the day-ahead market commitment algorithm,” the report said.

Collins said SPP’s Market Working Group has discussed a potential multiday optimization approach. A Tariff change has yet to materialize, he said, “but that could help address some of the concerns.”