FERC Conference Debates PURPA Costs, Purchase Obligations

By Robert Mullin

Nearly four decades after its passage, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act still generates controversy.

PURPA’s supporters and critics sounded off at a June 29 FERC technical conference exploring the ongoing challenges of implementing the law, which Congress enacted in 1978 to diversify the country’s energy supply, increase efficiency and develop a market for independent power producers. The session focused on PURPA’s mandatory purchase obligation and the determination of avoided costs for those purchases (AD16-16).

“In my view, PURPA has held up reasonably well,” Ken Rose, an economist representing the Independent Power Producers Coalition of Michigan (IPPC), told the conference. “It’s hard to believe [that] 40 years on, we’re still working on implementation.”

FERC Commissioner Tony Clark said the law provided a “foot in the door” for the renewable resources now roiling the power industry and its markets.

He also pointed out the commission’s motivation for revisiting the law, saying, “We’re hearing anecdotally about some of the concerns, especially from the West.”

‘Gaming’ the System

Paul Kjellander, president of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, said his state’s biggest concern is developers disaggregating large wind projects into smaller units in order to obtain the most favorable avoided cost rates for qualifying facilities.

Kjellander referred to the practice as “gaming” the system.

PURPA requires utilities to pay QFs the cost a utility would incur for supplying the power itself or by obtaining supplies from another source. The law leaves it to each state’s utility commission to formulate those rates, depending on project size.

At one time, Idaho’s rules allowed for projects of 10 MW or below to qualify for the state’s most favorable avoided cost — or standard — rate. As in all other states, projects were subject to FERC’s “1-mile rule,” which requires developers to maintain a 1-mile buffer between projects in order to qualify them as separate QFs. The commission implemented the provision to prevent disaggregation.

In 2010, the Idaho PUC received applications for 500 MW of PURPA projects. The minimum system load for the state’s largest utility, Idaho Power, is about 1,100 MW.

Each project submitted that year came under the 10-MW threshold, and most met the 1-mile standard. Kjellander pointed to an instance in which a developer divided the 151-MW Cedar Creek Wind Farm into five projects, each spaced 1 mile apart.

The Idaho PUC reduced the eligibility cap for the QF standard rate to 100 kW later that year in response to requests from the state’s three investor-owned utilities. The regulator last year reduced contract terms from 20 to two years.

Still, Kjellander said his agency observed what it considered another type of gaming when a PURPA developer moved a proposed project across the state line to Idaho Power’s territory in neighboring Oregon, where avoided cost rates were higher. The Oregon Public Utility Commission approved the project, which had also been broken into five units. Despite the project’s location, Idaho customers will foot nearly all the costs for that project, he said.

“We’re looking at an ugly border war with the state of Oregon,” Kjellander said.

‘Manageable Issue’

“This is a manageable issue — it’s not something that can’t be resolved,” countered Robert Kahn, executive director of the Northwest and Intermountain Power Producers Coalition. “To say [PURPA] is easily gamed is to understate the capacity of [state] commissions.”

Kahn called PURPA a “keystone” in facilitating competition. He said that in Oregon — which he said was “a model for PURPA” — small power producers have built just 5% of the resources used to serve the state’s electricity customers.

Without PURPA’s mandatory purchase obligation, he said, small producers in the Northwest are unable to interconnect with the regional market.

“We advocate for organized markets,” Kahn said. “We are not there yet.”

“The argument that the [Western Energy Imbalance Market] negates PURPA is nonsense,” he added.

Organized Markets not Enough

Varnum attorney Laura Chapelle, who represented Michigan’s IPPC, said that even a fully organized market is insufficient to support the financial viability of most QFs in the state, most of which is located within MISO. She contended that the RTO fails to provide a long-term market for smaller generating resources, given that most states in the footprint retain regulated markets.

“Utilities [receive a state-regulated] rate of return to pay for their resources but want to require that QFs use MISO to get compensated,” Chapelle said.

The power purchase agreement is “the single most important component for a project not owned by a utility,” said Todd Glass, an energy attorney with Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, who represented the Solar Energy Industries Association at the conference.

Wind projects are becoming more challenging to finance and develop, according to Glass. He also contended that “the utilities are becoming harder to deal with” with respect to negotiating contracts, and that interconnection processes are “very difficult and discriminatory.”

“You should do no harm to the mandatory purchase obligation,” Glass advised FERC commissioners.

Jeff Burleson, vice president of system planning for Southern Co., countered that “QF contracts that are based on long-term avoided costs pose a risk to our customers.”

Burleson said resources acquired through requests for proposals can be dispatched — or not — depending on power prices. “We fix the capacity price, so we can dispatch around it,” he said.

QF resources, on the other hand, cannot be curtailed, even when their costs exceed market prices, Burleson said.

Michael Wise, senior vice president with Golden Spread Electric Cooperative, noted that his members operate in both SPP and ERCOT and said those markets are “best positioned” to set avoided cost rates for their utility market participants. He suggested that FERC narrow the purchase obligation to cover projects of just 1 MW or less in order to prevent “unfair advantages.”

At the very least, Wise said, the commission should reduce the terms of PURPA contracts.

“QFs of all sizes have what we believe are unfettered access to these markets,” Wise said.

John Hughes, CEO of the Electricity Consumers Resource Council, said forcing QFs to become experts in RTO market design violates the spirit of PURPA. He also contended that the industry is trending toward the elimination of long-term contracts.

“We already have that in the organized markets and now we’re attempting that in the unorganized,” Hughes said. “This is a very serious situation that we’re going to have to look at.”

NY Power Trends Report Cites Tx Needs, Seeks Support for Markets

By William Opalka

Dynamic. Changing. Challenging.

Those words, which NYISO CEO Brad Jones uses frequently, are themes echoed throughout the 2016 NYISO Power Trends report.

New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision, the Clean Energy Standard (CES), distributed generation and customer engagement also feature prominently in the report, which was released today.

“The power market is changing as much or more than I’ve seen it in the last 20 years,” Jones told RTO Insider in an interview. “It’s a fantastic place for the NYISO to be in, in the middle of all this dramatic change.

“We wring our hands around here all the time, but I feel very good that we have the capabilities here to meet these challenges,” Jones continued.

Nuclear Power

Part of the hand-wringing concerns the possible loss of much of the nuclear fleet, which is unable to earn sufficient revenues in an energy market dominated by cheap natural gas. New York’s average wholesale electric energy price last year was $44.09/MWh, the lowest in the 15-year history of the state’s competitive markets.

nyiso power trends report

Without a financial lifeline, three nuclear plants in western New York are under threat of closure in early 2017. State regulators are considering a zero-emission credit to subsidize the upstate plants.

“The real key is that we do not properly value the carbon in our markets,” Jones said. (See Lack of Carbon Pricing Distorting RTO Markets, CEOs, Ex-Regulator Say.)

Clean Energy Standard Requires Transmission

The CES requires the state to procure 50% of its energy from renewable resources by 2030. That would require 75,000 GWh of renewable power annually, according to an estimate by the state Public Service Commission. By themselves, that goal would require either 25 GW of solar, 15 GW of wind or 4 GW of hydro, most of that in northern or western New York, far from the load centers in and around New York City.

The city, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley use 58% of the state’s electricity. But while more than 80% of the new generation since 2000 has been downstate, the region still produces only 40% of the state’s total, the report notes.

“What this speaks to is the need for more transmission,” Jones said. “Transmission is the key for us to be able to move green power from remote areas to the high-demand areas of the state.”

Flat Load Growth

The increasing shift to renewables will come during a period of flat load growth. “Year-over-year growth in the overall usage of electric energy from New York’s bulk electric system is expected to flatten or decline slightly over the next decade,” the report says.

nyiso, power trends report

Other trends highlighted in the report include:

  • Shifting patterns of electricity demand because of energy efficiency and distributed energy resources: “Distribution-level solar photovoltaics, in 2016, have an estimated summer capability of more than 250 MW. That total is expected to triple by 2026.”
  • Aging infrastructure requiring replacement and upgrades: “More than 80% of New York’s high-voltage transmission lines went into service before 1980. Of the state’s approximately 11,000 circuit-miles of transmission lines, nearly 4,700 circuit-miles will require replacement within the next 30 years, according to New York’s transmission-owning utilities and power authorities.”
  • Increasing choices for customers as a result of public policies aimed at reducing emissions and expanding renewable power.

The report concludes with a plea to continue the state’s commitment to competitive markets — a commitment some observers say could be undermined by generation subsidies and long-term contracting for clean power.

The report notes that five of the seven reliability assessments the ISO has conducted since 2005 identified emerging reliability needs. “In each case, markets responded with resources to address those needs, avoiding the need to call upon regulatory solutions,” the report notes.

MISO, Monitor Release Negotiated Auction Redesign

By Amanda Durish Cook

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO and its Independent Market Monitor have developed a compromise auction design calling for a prompt, single Planning Resource Auction with separate prices for competitive retail areas.

But that isn’t stopping the RTO from also keeping its original forward auction proposal on the table, a proposal Monitor David Patton says is not viable.

“We don’t believe there is one definitive solution forward, but we do believe we have two very good options in front of us,” MISO executive director of market services Jeff Bladen said during a two-day Resource Adequacy Subcommittee meeting Wednesday and Thursday. “We’re deep into the weeds of evaluating both for price stability.”

Bladen said MISO has hired The Brattle Group to conduct an analysis on both proposals and will select a plan based on the results.

The hybrid competitive retail solution marries elements from earlier proposals by the Monitor and MISO. With it, the RTO could abandon its proposed three-year forward auction for deregulated sections of the footprint in favor of the IMM’s multi-stage prompt auction in which only merchant supply could receive competitive retail pricing set by a systemwide sloped demand curve.

Assets controlled by a load-serving entity whose demand is outside a competitive retail zone would be precluded from clearing at the competitive retail price. MISO’s forward proposal would allow non-merchant generators to offer into the separate, retail choice auction.

Two-Stage Auction

The hybrid proposal would deliver the auction in two stages: Immediately after the competitive retail stage of the auction is cleared, the PRA, with traditionally rate-regulated supply and demand, would take place. The PRA would be referred to as the “legacy” stage of the auction and would continue using the current vertical demand curve.

Fixed resource adequacy plans remain the same under the two proposals; LSEs would have to create plans on a forward basis to opt out of serving retail-choice load.

miso auction redesign

“I think the hybrid prompt proposal would work,” Monitor David Patton said after multiple stakeholders asked for his opinion. “I’m confident the forward proposal would produce more volatility than the hybrid proposal.”

Patton said the hybrid proposal’s sloped demand curve could be adjusted by MISO to correct instances of over- or under-procurement.

Dynegy’s Mark Volpe asked for Patton’s view on both proposals.

Patton said the forward proposal MISO is continuing to consider is not structured to produce an efficient price and does not represent a compromise. “It may not surprise you that I don’t think the forward proposal is not a viable proposal,” he said  . …We’re going to be providing some information regarding the price that you get under both proposals at the next meeting,” he said.

Bladen countered that the hybrid approach could produce volatility. He also said MISO’s Tariff would have to undergo extensive revision to implement the hybrid proposal.

“While it has theoretical elegance, the practical application is questionable,” Bladen said. “FERC is the ultimate judge.”

Stakeholders asked if either proposal had been reviewed by FERC staff.

Bladen said although commission staff has been following MISO’s deliberations “FERC would never give advance notice on what they would approve.”

Bladen also said he didn’t have an estimate on when draft Tariff language would be in front of stakeholders, but he did say it would be “very difficult to achieve” implementation in time for the 2017/18 planning year.

“I wish I could give an exact date when we’re going to walk into the room and announce the selected proposal,” he said.

Forward Proposal Still Unfinished

MISO has yet to offer a demand curve shape for its forward proposal for deregulated areas. Bladen said the final shape is “pending further Brattle Group analysis” but the resulting shape would most likely resemble shapes used by other RTOs. MISO has asked Brattle to look at broader, New York-style demand curves that have more megawatt breadth as well as the narrower PJM-style demand curve, he said.

The RTO’s forward proposal also has yet to identify the “hurdles” rate-regulated supply could face when electing to participate in deregulated areas. Bladen said MISO is working with Brattle on restrictions.

“MISO does not want to be a party to any LSE selling itself short,” Bladen explained.

Stakeholders: Give Us the Evidence

Stakeholders sought more evidence that either proposal would work, with several asking MISO to run simulations using the 2016/17 planning year offers.

Indianapolis Power and Light’s Ted Leffler asked if simulations have been run at all.

“We’re working on it. The short answer is it’s complicated,” Bladen said. He said both MISO and the IMM would come back with simulations and concrete examples, but their results could differ.

Bladen also said there has been “a high lack of understanding [among stakeholders] on how these proposals would work.”

Susan Satter, public utilities counsel for the Illinois attorney general’s office, asked at what point regulated suppliers would supply load in Zone 4 using a hybrid model. Bladen responded that regulated suppliers would influence the competitive retail price by contributing to the systemwide demand curve. He added the systemwide demand curve is needed so deregulated areas contribute to footprint-wide resource adequacy.

“In a sense, [rate-regulated load-serving entities] are providing a moderating service on the competitive retail price,” Bladen said. “While they’re not being explicitly committed to serving load, they’re implicitly moderating the price … versus if there was only merchant generator participation.”

Stakeholders asked if MISO’s forward proposal would guarantee lower prices.

“I’m hesitant to say anything in life is a guarantee,” Bladen responded. But he added that the forward proposal’s price mechanism should produce lower prices. “We think the proposal has legs.”

Patton continues to maintain that MISO’s forward proposal would fail to produce efficient price signals. (See MISO Considering Changes to Proposed Auction Design.)

Initial stakeholder feedback on the hybrid and forward proposals is due July 7.

An additional special meeting of the RASC will take place July 14, at which stakeholders are again expected to discuss the hybrid proposal. Bladen promised Brattle representatives would be on hand to explain their analysis of both proposals and answer questions.

“One of these proposals will fall by the wayside, unless they’re miraculously merged, which I don’t think will happen,” said RASC Chair Gary Mathis.

MISO Contemplates Outages in Seasonal Capacity Accreditation

MISO ‎Manager of Resource Adequacy Coordination Laura Rauch also continued discussion at the RASC on how outages might be handled under seasonal capacity accreditation. (See MISO Moves Forward on Auction Design; Seasonal Filing Delayed Again.)

Stakeholders have said some planned outages during peak hours are appropriate under certain circumstances: when a unit is undergoing a one-time upgrade, when a unit hasn’t cleared the capacity auction or when weather is mild.

miso auction redesign
Rauch © RTO Insider

Currently, MISO’s planning reserve margin does not make room for any planned or maintenance outages during peak times. Rauch said the RTO is weighing increasing the reserve margin or reducing individual units’ capacity accreditations to reflect the risk of outages during peak hours.

“We’re still trying to get the point where we identify and clear what’s needed under a two-season construct,” said Rauch.

MISO’s locational filing, which would create external resource zones, is still being examined.

“One of the things stakeholders requested is more transparency and more clarity on how local resource zones would be run in the auction,” Rauch said. “Our homework is to come back with some better examples.”

Further discussion on MISO’s seasonal and external zone constructs is expected at the August RASC meeting. Rauch said an updated design document on the constructs will be released in September.

Eversource, Hydro-Quebec File PPA for Northern Pass

By William Opalka

Hydro-Quebec and Public Service Company of New Hampshire (PSNH) filed a 20-year power purchase agreement with New Hampshire regulators on Tuesday that promises to deliver at least 100 MW of energy during peak hours over the Northern Pass transmission line (DE 16-693).

PSNH parent Eversource Energy hopes to build the line to deliver Canadian hydropower into the ISO-NE market to reduce power price volatility and promote fuel diversity.

The company has cited the PPA as one of the benefits of the Northern Pass, along with economic development and clean energy. The Tuesday filing begins the formal review process before the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission, which must determine whether the PPA is in the public interest.

The 192-mile project from the Canadian border to Deerfield would have a capacity of 1,090 MW. Officials said New Hampshire consumes about 9% of the electricity used in ISO-NE, so a proportionate share of its capacity is targeted to the state’s customers.

eversource energy, hydro quebec, northern pass

Eversource Energy plans to lay much of the Northern Pass transmission line underground using the open cut trench method shown above. Source: Northern Pass

“This agreement is great news for New Hampshire electricity customers who have been struggling to pay some of the highest rates in the country,” Bill Quinlan, president of Eversource New Hampshire Operations, said in a statement.

Eversource says the PPA will save customers $1 billion over the first 10 years.

“The $1 billion in savings includes the $800 million in savings over a 10-year period as a result of market price suppression brought about by Northern Pass being in the regional market,” spokesman Martin Murray told RTO Insider. “In addition to that savings, the 20-year PPA will provide additional cost savings, and New Hampshire ownership of all the environmental [renewable energy credits] associated with the 100 MW of hydropower.”

Eversource said the PPA will provide its New Hampshire utility with 400,000 MWh  of energy per year, Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m.

Prices are redacted from the contract for competitive reasons, although the document says prices are “based on the MA Hub NYMEX forwards adjusted for delivery to the delivery point.”

Eversource said that New Hampshire retains “most favored nation” rights under the agreement. If Hydro-Quebec negotiates a PPA with another party over the first 10 years for at least 100 MW at more favorable terms, PSNH could demand similar prices.

Three New England states — Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island — have solicited clean energy proposals from regional suppliers for long-term contracts. Northern Pass is one of more than 30 respondents that are undergoing review, which is expected to be completed in about a month. (See New England States Combine on Clean Energy Procurement.)

Northern Pass has proposed to deliver energy to the three states in the second quarter of 2019, which could be ambitious given the several hurdles it has to overcome. It previously said construction would take two years once all permits were obtained.

The project has been opposed for its visual impacts on tourist-dependent northern New Hampshire, which has led to longer-than-expected reviews. Northern Pass is now before the state’s Site Evaluation Committee. It is also facing a legal challenge from conservationists. (See Northern Pass Challenge Headed to NH Supreme Court.)

CAISO Regulation Costs Quadruple as Prices, Procurement Jump

By Robert Mullin

CAISO’s regulation costs have quadrupled since the ISO increased requirements to help balance variable output from renewable resources.

Daily payments to regulation service providers jumped from about $100,000 to more than $400,000 after CAISO increased the requirements in late February, according to a report from the ISO’s Department of Market Monitoring.

Regulation prices more than doubled as the ISO increased its daily procurement to as much as 800 MW from 400 MW or less.

The department discounted the likelihood that market manipulation was behind the increase. “We did look at bid behavior and didn’t see it [had] changed,” Gabe Murtaugh, a department senior analyst, said during a call to discuss the report. “We don’t see any evidence of market collusion or anticompetitive behavior.”

CAISO implemented the change Feb. 20, increasing regulation requirements in both the day-ahead and real-time markets to 600 MW. Prior to that, day-ahead requirements were set in the 300-400 MW range, while real-time requirements were consistently pegged at 300 MW.

The Monitor said the ISO procured an average of 617 MW of regulation up and 619 MW of regulation down in the day-ahead market between Feb. 20 and March 31. Procurements reached as high as 800 MW on days when forecasts predicted high variability from renewables.

During that period, day-ahead prices for regulation up and down averaged $14.81/MWh and $12.92/MWh, respectively, compared with $6.50 (up) and $4.16 (down) before the change was implemented. Real-time gained in similar proportion, with regulation up averaging $17.18 and regulation down averaging $21.34.

caiso, regulation costs
Regulation prices more than doubled (top) after CAISO increased regulation requirements in late February. The increased prices and volumes procured quadrupled the ISO’s average daily regulation cost to $400,000 (bottom).

Regulation up and down are two of the four ancillary services products the ISO procures through “co-optimization” with the energy market, meaning that resources can bid into both markets simultaneously. Most regulation capacity is acquired in the day-ahead market, with the real-time market run used to cover additional needs or replace unavailable resources.

In addition to receiving a capacity payment, resources that provide regulation service are also eligible for a performance — or mileage — award for in the event they are dispatched. Payments for mileage have historically represented just a fraction of those for capacity.

California Energy Commission analyst Christopher McLean questioned the rationale behind the volume of regulation service the ISO is acquiring.

“Is all that’s being procured being utilized?” McLean asked. “Did it offset any [spinning reserve] procurement?”

Keith Collins, ISO manager of monitoring and reporting, responded that expanded regulation reserves did not reduce the acquisition of spinning reserves — nor could he provide estimates for utilization.

“That’s not something we reported, but we can look into that,”  Collins said.

McLean pressed his point, asking if the ISO was using “any sort of formula” to set the regulation requirement, something the Monitor could not confirm.

“So you’re saying there is not any formula,”  McLean said. “We’ll be interested in any justification for the change in the procurement level.”

CAISO Board Appoints Western Energy Imbalance Market Governing Body

By Robert Mullin

CAISO’s Board of Governors on Tuesday appointed five members to serve on the newly established governing body of the western Energy Imbalance Market.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy, FERC, Western EIM, CAISOCandidates were selected after being vetted by a nominating committee representing five industry sectors, including EIM entities, ISO participating transmission owners, power suppliers and marketers, publicly owned utilities and state regulators.

“It was a consensus-driven process,” said CAISO board member Angelina Galiteva, a nonvoting committee member. “It was a successful outcome and can serve as a basis for a larger expansion” of the ISO itself.

PacifiCorp Transmission Vice President and General Counsel Sarah Edmonds, who headed the committee, said the new governing body demonstrated the “diversity of expertise” and independence necessary to oversee the EIM. She also noted its regional diversity.

“In terms of geography, we have the Pacific Northwest, California [and] the desert Southwest” represented on the body, Edmonds said.

caiso, western eim
Left to Right: Valerie Fong, Doug Howe, Carl Linvill, John Prescott, Kristine Schmidt

The members of the EIM’s new governing body are:

  • Valerie Fong — Recently retired after serving as the director of utilities for Palo Alto, Calif., from 2006 to 2015. Fong previously had a 20-year career at Pacific Gas and Electric and served on the boards of the Power Association of Northern California, Transmission Agency of Northern California, and the Northern California Power Agency.
  • Doug Howe — A Ph.D. in mathematics who has authored or co-authored more than 30 papers and presentations covering industry subjects such as energy efficiency in the European Union and utility regulation in the U.K. Howe previously served as a New Mexico state regulator and executive with GPU Inc., which was acquired by FirstEnergy in 2001.
  • Carl Linvill — Principal at the Vermont-based Regulatory Assistance Project, which produces white papers on energy and environmental issues. Linvill previously served as a utilities commissioner in Nevada and still acts as technical adviser for the Western Interstate Energy Board.
  • John Prescott — Retired earlier this year after 10 years as CEO of the Portland-based Pacific Northwest Generating Cooperative, a member-owned policy advocate for utility cooperatives in seven Western states. Prescott previously worked at Idaho Power and Seattle City Light and served on the Pacific Northwest Utility Conference Committee and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association’s Regulatory Standing Committee.
  • Kristine Schmidt – President of Dallas-based Swan Consulting, which provides advisory services to businesses entering or expanding in the electricity and natural gas sectors. Schmidt was previously a vice president at ITC Holdings and director at Xcel Energy. She also worked as a commissioner adviser at FERC.

Members are appointed for three-year terms, but because this was the first governing body, the ISO board established staggered terms by randomly selecting names. Fong and Prescott will serve until June 30, 2019, Howe and Linvill until June 30, 2018, and Schmidt until June 30, 2017. In the future, all nominations will be subject to approval by the governing body.

MISO Board of Directors Briefs

DETROIT — MISO’s 2016 spending is in line with its budget for the year, Vice President of Finance Jo Biggers told the Board of Directors at the RTO’s Annual Meeting last week. Year-to-date expenses are $93.3 million, $300,000 under budget. The RTO was able to save about $700,000 with the renegotiated lease of its Carmel, Ind., building, among other factors, but spent an extra $400,000 on resource adequacy efforts, including capacity auction redesign and seasonal and locational constructs.

The RTO was allotted a $225 million operating budget in 2016. It currently expects to spend between $224.7 million and $225.5 million by the end of the year.

Biggers said that although MISO is $4.1 million under budget on capital expenses to date, it expects to spend most or all of the $31 million capital budget by year-end.

Board member Phyllis Currie said the board’s Audit and Finance Committee is considering whether the RTO should file for 501(c)(3) status. MISO is currently categorized as a 501(c)(4), a social welfare organization; 501(c)(3) status would designate it a charitable organization.

miso board of directors
Weber Source: IURC

“Over time, we’ll look at the pros and cons. It’s a good time to take a look at this,” Currie said. MISO could benefit from tax-exempt status, especially when considering the amounts it may need to borrow over the next five years, she said.

Stakeholders Join Nominating Committee

Indiana Utility Regulatory Commissioner Angela Weber and Matt Brown, vice president of federal policy at Entergy Services, have joined MISO’s Nominating Committee, filling the two stakeholder vacancies, board member Michael Curran reported.

— Amanda Durish Cook

Rejection of BLM Fracking Rule to Save Drillers Millions, Industry Says

By Rory D. Sweeney

A Wyoming federal judge’s ruling last week striking down the Obama administration’s regulations on fracking on federal lands will save operators about $113,000 per well, according to an industry-sponsored analysis.

The study, which was performed by John Dunham & Associates at the request of the Western Energy Alliance, found that the regulations by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management would have added at least $403 million annually to well development costs.

The regulations would have affected several thousand wells each year on federal and Indian lands, either as new drilling or maintenance of existing wells. The majority of the lands are in western states and the Gulf of Mexico.

Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, North Dakota and the Ute Indian Tribe challenged the regulations in a case that was combined with a separate suit by WEA and the Independent Petroleum Association of America.

The regulations, which were to take effect in June 2015, were stayed pending the outcome of the case.

While the breakdown between oil and gas wells was unclear because federal statistics don’t separate them, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show that the average cost to develop a natural gas well has been steadily rising to more than $600/foot as of 2007, which is the most recent information the agency provides. EIA reported the average total well cost at nearly $4 million.

blm, fracking
Fossil fuel production on federal and Indian lands, FY 2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Natural Resources Revenue.

In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Scott Skavdahl explicitly avoided the question of whether or not the regulations are necessary and instead focused entirely on BLM’s authority to enact them (Case Nos. 2:15-CV-043-SWS, 2:15-CV-041-SWS).

Dismissing the agency’s arguments that it has jurisdiction through several tangential regulations, Skavdahl searched for specific delineation of authority from Congress. He found that the Safe Drinking Water Act requires EPA to adopt requirements for state programs to prevent underground injection from threatening drinking water sources.

He also cited the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which expressly excluded federal oversight of fracking that doesn’t involve diesel fuel.

Skavdahl rejected BLM’s argument that the generalized authority the agency cited would supersede the more specific SWDA and EPACT.

“Given Congress’ enactment of the [Energy Policy] Act of 2005, to nonetheless conclude that Congress implicitly delegated BLM authority to regulate hydraulic fracturing lacks common sense,” he wrote. “Congress’ inability or unwillingness to pass a law desired by the executive branch does not default authority to the executive branch to act independently, regardless of whether hydraulic fracturing is good or bad for the environment.”

The administration filed an appeal on Friday. “We believe that we have a strong argument to make about the important role that the federal government can play in ensuring that hydraulic fracturing that’s done on public land doesn’t threaten the drinking water of the people who live in the area,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said during a press briefing on Wednesday.

In Northeast, Fleet Turnover to Natural Gas is Unabated

By William Opalka

NEW YORK — Whether the view is from PJM, which sits atop the Utica and Marcellus shale gas formations, or ISO-NE, at the “end of the pipeline,” the so-called “dash to gas” shows no sign of abating, speakers said Friday at the Energy Bar Association Northeast Chapter’s 2016 Annual Meeting.

“There’s a fairly high degree of confidence in the market that gas prices will be consistently low for a fairly long time,” said Vince Duane, senior vice president and general counsel at PJM. Of 36,000 MW of PJM generation that has retired in the last two decades, about 30,000 MW of the units replacing them are natural gas, he said.

eba, natural gas
Duane © RTO Insider

Duane said that while the energy industry has “done a very poor job of forecasting prices and deploying capital” in the past, “the markets are [now] giving such an overwhelming signal” to choose gas.

In response to calls by FirstEnergy, American Electric Power and Exelon for subsidies to keep coal and nuclear plants operating, Duane co-authored a recent PJM study that counseled against such interventions. (See PJM Study Defends Markets, Warns State Policies can Harm Competition.)

“I do take issue with the idea that the entire nuclear fleet is at risk across the board. There’s always been well-run nukes … and the well-located ones are doing well,” he said, calling the predicted demise “hyperbole.”

Duane said markets have responded to environmental regulations in unexpected ways. EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards rule “is kind of a national experiment in that it’s imposing costs on every coal plant, whether it’s in an organized market or a regulated market,” Duane said.

“I thought I was going to write [that] the unregulated markets were ruthlessly efficient and regulated markets [were] holding onto that invested capital longer. We cut it every which way: the age of the resource; the size of the resource; the heat rate efficiency. And every time, we came up with no statistical difference … as both are doing a comparable job of pushing out the inefficient coal resources.”

Even where gas supplies are distant, market signals still point toward that fuel source.

eba, natural gas
Flynn © RTO Insider

“We are having more gas units come in through our capacity auctions, but we haven’t really had any gas infrastructure built,” said Kevin Flynn, senior regulatory counsel at ISO-NE.

Natural gas provides about half the energy in New England now, up from about 15% in 2000.

And as policymakers mandate more renewable energy resources, their integration requires more quick-start resources, usually natural gas, to maintain system balance, he added.

Because inadequate gas supplies exist during winter cold snaps, ISO-NE added its Pay-for-Performance program to incentivize generators when they’re needed most. It starts in 2018.

More than 3,000 MW of gas-fired generation has cleared in the last two Forward Capacity Auctions. “What we found in FCA 10 is that all gas resources that cleared are dual-fuel, as that’s the way the market is responding to Pay-for-Performance,” Flynn said. (See FERC Accepts ISO-NE Auction Results.)

The region has lost most of its coal fleet, and much of its nuclear generation is at risk. Vermont Yankee closed at the end of 2014, and Pilgrim in Massachusetts will leave the market in 2019.

eba, natural gas
Patka © RTO Insider

Two nuclear units in New York are at risk, as the James A. FitzPatrick plant is set to close in the spring, and the R.E. Ginna plant could follow at the end of its reliability support services agreement, also early next year.

From 2010 to 2016, 11,665 MW of generation was built to replace aging or retiring units, representing about a quarter of the state’s total capacity of 39,000 MW, NYISO Assistant General Counsel Carl Patka said.

“We’re seeing a greater amount of deactivation notices, especially in western New York. Not a great surprise to see some of the older coal units” retiring, he said.

The retirements will make it a challenge for NYISO, which has a reserve margin of 20%, to maintain its reliability.

“Longer term, that’s something to keep an eye on,” he said. (See NYISO: FitzPatrick Closure will not Harm Reliability.)

Monitor’s State of the Market Report Seeks Changes to MISO ELMP

By Amanda Durish Cook

DETROIT — MISO’s Independent Market Monitor added eight new recommendations in its 2015 State of the Market Report.

The 124-page report concluded that MISO’s energy and ancillary markets “generally performed competitively” last year.

Monitor David Patton outlined the recommendations, four of which involve resource adequacy and planning, before the Markets Committee of the Board of Directors on Wednesday:

Energy Pricing and Transmission Congestion

  1. Disable price setting by offline resources in extended locational marginal pricing (ELMP) and expand the share of online generators eligible to set prices to include those with start times of one hour or less and minimum run times of two hours or less, regardless of whether they are scheduled in the day-ahead market.

MISO has proposed increasing the share of online peaking resources able to set prices to 14% from the current 2% in ELMP Phase II, which would eliminate $4.4 million in revenue sufficiency guarantee (RSG) payments. Patton said the RTO should permit pricing by 90% of online peaking resources, which he said would eliminate $20 million in RSG payments.

The Monitor said offline resources should only set prices when they are economic and can be started quickly to address a shortage — a threshold it said was met by less than 10% of the offline resources that currently set prices. “Accordingly, we conclude that ELMP’s offline pricing is inefficiently changing prices during shortage conditions and recommend that MISO disable the offline pricing logic as quickly as possible,” the report says.

Board member Paul Feldman said the negligible benefits of ELMP were “disappointing.” (See “‘Modest’ Price Impacts as Extended LMP Enters Phase 2,” MISO Market Subcommittee Briefs.)

Jeff Bladen, executive director of MISO market services, said ELMP Phase I was “designed to be conservative” and that MISO is analyzing the Monitor’s recommendation.

  1. Increase use of temperature-adjusted and short-term emergency ratings for transmission facilities.

Guarantee Payment Eligibility Rules and Cost Allocation

  1. Begin modeling the voltage and local reliability requirement in the day-ahead market.

Improve Dispatch Efficiency and Real-Time Market Operations

  1. Address “poor” dispatch performance and state estimator model errors in real-time operations by improving tools and procedures.

Resource Adequacy and Planning

  1. Implement firm capacity delivery procedures with PJM instead of using pseudo-tied resources.

The Monitor said a firm capacity approach with PJM “would guarantee the delivery of the energy from MISO capacity resources to PJM, while maintaining the efficiency and reliability of MISO’s dispatch.”

In its quarterly report for spring 2016, Patton said 100 new market-to-market flowgates were created between March and June when MISO pseudo-tied 22 resources to PJM territory. Congestion on the new constraints totaled $22 million for the quarter, a six-fold increase over the first quarter.

Patton said the M2M process doesn’t have an efficient enough response for pseudo-ties positioned farther from the seam.

The next batch of pseudo-tied resources to be committed outside of MISO will occur in June 2017.

“We expect higher congestion as this process unfolds. We hope PJM gets tired of these high prices … and bearing the cost of MISO congestion. It’s certainly bad for the Eastern Interconnect,” Patton said.

However, PJM has said it will not consider firm capacity delivery as an alternative to continue pseudo-ties, he said.

MISO CEO John Bear said the RTO is discussing the issue with PJM but doesn’t expect a resolution until the middle of 2017.

“I’d encourage both parties to go back to the beginning,” board member Michael Curran said. “Untying this knot could be more difficult than going back to the beginning and saying, ‘how did we get here?’”

  1. Improve the modeling of transmission constraints in the Planning Resource Auction.
  2. Improve the physical withholding mitigation measures for the PRA by addressing uneconomic retirements and recognizing affiliates.

The report says falling capacity margins will leave MISO more vulnerable to physical withholding and cites Tariff provisions that it says prevent the RTO from addressing it. “First, the physical withholding thresholds are applied on a market participant basis, rather than a company basis. This would allow a large supplier to create multiple market participants to effectively circumvent the mitigation. Second, it is not clear [that] retiring a unit that is clearly economic to continue operating would be considered physical withholding and subject to MISO’s mitigation measures.”

  1. Improve modeling of the limit on transfers between MISO South and Midwest regions in the PRA.

MISO’s recent settlement with SPP and other parties allows the RTO to transfer as much as 2,500 MW from MISO South to Midwest. But in the most recent PRA, MISO set a limit of only 874 MW.

The Monitor said the transfer limit in the PRA should equal the total transfer limit minus a derating factor that represents the probability that MISO neighbors will request a derating because of an emergency. “This recommendation would have had a substantial effect on the clearing prices in most of the Midwest zones in the most recent PRA for planning year 2016/17,” it said.

Incentives for New Investment Lacking

Curran said the board would schedule a conference call with MISO and the Monitor for a more in-depth conversation on the remaining recommendations.

Patton said long-run price signals continue to discourage new investment, with net revenues declining in 2015. The Monitor noted the $27/MWh average electricity price was 32% lower than in 2014. Natural gas prices fell 50% for the year to their lowest levels since MISO launched its energy markets in 2005.

Milder weather in 2015 caused average load levels to fall 2% from 2014. The peak load of 120 GW, set in July, was well below the forecast peak of 127.3 GW.

Gas-fired generation increased its share of total output from 17% to 23% over the year. Gas-fired resources were central to price-setting, “setting the system marginal price in 76% of intervals and locational prices somewhere in MISO in 95% of intervals,” the report said.

miso, david patton, state of the market
Patton © RTO Insider

Patton said the spring 2016 quarter was competitive, attributable in part to continued low natural gas prices. The average cost of energy was $21.50/MWh, about 20% lower than in spring 2015.

Board member Thomas Rainwater asked how much MISO’s market would have to value carbon to incentivize continued operation of nuclear units. Patton said if carbon was valued at $20/short ton, nuclear resources would be closer to recovering costs. Patton also said expansion of wind generation is not the most cost-effective means to reduce carbon but is currently economic because of subsidies.

Board members expressed concern that the Monitor’s report included capacity margin values for the summer that differed from the RTO’s projected 18.2% summer reserve margin.

The Monitor’s base case scenario predicted a 20.5% margin because Patton said the 1,000-MW North-South transfer limit is too “pessimistic.” For its margin, MISO assumes 1,203 MW of capacity in MISO South cannot be accessed because of the North-South transfer limit. However, in the Monitor’s one-year-in-10 scenario, in a high-temperature, high-load forecast, the reserve margin falls to 11.6%.

Board members questioned the disparate reserve margins and asked why the board wasn’t presented with them during MISO’s summer readiness presentation. (See “MISO Prepped for Summer Demand,” MISO Markets Committee of the Board of Directors Briefs.)

“If MISO doesn’t see the world in the same way, our numbers may not match,” Patton said, reminding the board that the Monitor is independent of MISO.

Board members asked that Patton display his results alongside MISO’s in future summer readiness presentations. MISO and the Monitor agreed.

MISO’s Shawn McFarlane also delivered the RTO’s quarterly report during the meeting:

  • Average load for the spring was 86.3 GW, 2.7% lower than last spring.
  • Natural gas prices averaged $1.87/MMBtu, a 34.2% decline relative to spring 2015.
  • Total forced and planned generation outages accounted for 23.8% of market capacity: Planned outages averaged 23.6 GW, an 18% drop from spring 2015; forced outages averaged 19.3 GW, up 5.5%.
  • Average wind generation increased to 5.6 GW, 4.5% higher than last spring. Wind production was 4,934 GWh in April, setting a new monthly record.